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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

I'm beginning to think that political events, no matter how explosive,
no longer have the power to affect the economy, financial markets, or
even oil prices. Technology, while entertaining, seems to have lost its
ability to create productivity gains. Structural reforms have become
stuck in many economies, and needed infrastructure improvements just
aren't happening. Income inequality does not seem to be reversing
anywhere, and so one wonders how global consumption can rebound.
Automation has negatively impacted jobs and nothing seems likely to stop
that momentum. Global risks to the environment, and to health, seem
likely to increase.

Where can we find optimism, and new leadership? As has been the case
throughout human history, the answer could be technology rather than
political leadership. My hometown of Chicago is the only top 20 city in
the US that is losing population, in a state whose bonds are rated close
to junk. However, like other cities in "flyover country" the Midwest
might be in a state of transition that the bicoastal media has not yet
understood—just like they misunderstood Trump.

AOL founder Steve Case's efforts (see article below) to push against the
consolidation of innovation in Silicon Valley and the East Coast are at
the forefront of a new movement. One of the strengths of the US economy
has always been healthy geographic distribution. I'll be in NYC next
week to attend meetings at the Council on Foreign Relations, which will
likely be sobering. When I return I am excited to attend both TechWeek
Chicago

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01d7-1706/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct1_1/1?sid=TV2%3AQFtVsCisi

and Technori

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01d7-1706/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct2_1/1?sid=TV2%3AQFtVsCisi

, a start-up showcase founded by one of our EconVue experts, Seth
Kravitz

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01d7-1706/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct3_1/1?sid=TV2%3AQFtVsCisi

. I believe events such as these are where hope can be found that will
take us beyond the current stagnation.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Middle East

Will Qatar's diplomatic exile spark the next Great War?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/05/will-qatars-diplomatic-exile-spark-the-next-great-war-saudi-arabia-trump-iran/

Simon Henderson 6/5/2017 Foreign Policy

Sarajevo 1914, Doha 2017? We could be at a historic moment akin to the
assassination of the heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian Empire,
which resulted in what became known as the Great War. This time, though,
the possible clash is between a Saudi-United Arab Emirates force and
Iran. Washington is going to have to act quickly to stop the march to
war, rather than wait for the carnage to begin.

Feud Between Brothers: the GCC rift and implications for oil and gas
markets

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/ggp-gcc-rift-and-implications-for-oil-and-gas-markets-53026?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Natural%20Gas%20World%20Newsletter%20June%207%202017%20-%20Third%20Edition&utm_content=Natural%20Gas%20World%20Newsletter%20June%207%202017%20-%20Third%20Edition+CID_d82037a9e195cee2416662fabcfcd63c&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=GGP%20Feud%20Between%20Brothers%20the%20GCC%20rift%20and%20implications%20for%20oil%20and%20gas%20markets

Natural Gas World 6/7/2017

What are the long-term implications of the recent sanctioning of Qatar?
Based upon research by the Oxford Centre for Energy Policy, full pdf:
http://eda.ac.ae/images/pdf/EDA_Insight_Global_Energy_Trends_EN.PDF

http://eda.ac.ae/images/pdf/EDA_Insight_Global_Energy_Trends_EN.PDF

Iran unites as Tehran struck by Middle Eastern proxy wars

http://lobelog.com/iran-unites-as-tehran-struck-by-middle-easts-proxy-wars/

Ali Vaez 6/10/17 Lobelog

U.S.

The House just passed the biggest banking deregulation bill in history

https://www.vox.com/2017/6/8/15762462/wall-street-house-republicans

6/8/17 Vox

At least some of this will become law, because all politician have
bankers in their districts.

After Yellen, an all-white male Fed board ahead?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfvail/2017/06/06/after-yellen-an-all-white-male-fed-board-ahead/#5e3051ac207f

John Vail 6/6/2017 Forbes

Or after Yellen, could we find another woman at the helm of the Fed? The
case for Loretta Mester, and Midwestern diversity.

Trump's economic agenda is almost dead

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-09/trump-s-economic-agenda-is-almost-dead

Barry Ritholtz 6/9/17 Bloomberg View

Has a once-in-a generation opportunity to reform taxes, repatriate
profits, and improve US infrastructure been lost? Ritzholtz puts the
odds of implementing the Trump agenda at 25%-he was at 96% last
November.

Robert J Gordon, prophet of pessimism

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2017/06/people.htm?cmpid=FBFD

IMF June 2017

What NU economist Robert Gordon could tell Trump about growth: quick
fixes won't last

Labor productivity growth, G-7 countries

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/872495260072587266/photo/1

(chart)

Jason Furman 6/7/2017 (Twitter)

Productivity has slowed in the United States, as it has in nearly all
advanced economies.

Global

The true cause of hunger and famine? War and weak governance

https://twitter.com/wef/status/873201036487512065

World Economic Forum 6/9/2017 (Twitter)

Amartya Sen won his Nobel Prize for his work on famine in India: he said
its real cause is lack of information-- which is disrupted by war and
bad government. After virtually disappearing for the past two decades,
the threat of famine is reappearing. Simon O'Connell at Mercy Corps
Europe explains the complex nature of food insecurity, and why crisis
appeals won't solve the problem.

Prime Minister May error "worst since Heath in 1974"

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2017/june/worst-blunder-since-heath-in-1974/?utm_source=OMFIFupdate

David Marsh 6/9/2017 OMIFF

Snap election leads to hung Parliament and some are questioning whether
May will survive the week. She's already thrown her two closest advisers
overboard. Could one of the unintended consequences be a softening of
UK-EU negotiating stance?

In China, whether or not you go to university depends a lot on where
you're from...

https://twitter.com/SixthTone/status/872760137731198978/photo/1

Sixth Tone 6/8/2017 (Twitter)

This is gaokao season in China, when millions take university entrance
exams. Where you're from affects university admissions, further
solidifying income inequality, another challenge to hukou

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system

reform. Structural reforms in China are very hard to implement, and this
is one example. This matters because China's growth is key to re-up
global growth.

Technology

Google is as close to a natural monopoly as the Bell System was in 1956

https://promarket.org/google-close-natural-monopoly-bell-system-1956/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

Asher Schechter 5/7/2017 Pro-Market

Is a breakup of the technology behemoths inevitable? Nasdaq suffered a
setback on Friday as giant tech stocks took a dive. Perhaps proactive
splits could stave off regulatory backlash.

How Steve Case became Washington's tech whisperer

http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/06/08/steve-case-innovation-venture-capital-fund-000447

Miles Donovan 6/9/2017 Politico

Can flyover country share the prosperity of Silicon Valley? The AOL
billionaire is making it his cause.

The billion dollar war over maps

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/07/technology/business/maps-wars-self-driving-cars/index.html

Seth Fiegerman 6/7/2017 CNN

Self-driving cars will demand a new generation of maps, in another
example of the infrastructure buildout necessary for autonomous
vehicles.

Chinese automakers seek ways to kick-start sputtering growth

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Chinese-automakers-seek-ways-to-kick-start-sputtering-growth?utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_content=article%20link

Shunsuke Tabeta 6/7/2017 Nikkei Asian Review

Will China have driverless cars first, by 2025?

Uncertainties shadow combustible ice mining breakthrough

http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-06-06/101098851.html

Yu Dawei and Teng Jing Xuan 6/6/2017 Caixin Global

The snowcapped Qilian Mountains in Qinghai province seem a world apart
from the subtropical South China Sea – yet both are home to a curious,
methane-containing substance known as "combustible ice" that could
replace traditional fossil fuels.

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Data Round Up: U.S.household net worth rises again; UK's May clings on;
Dodd-Frank wounded

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/round-ushousehold-net-worth-rises-again-uks-may-clings-dodd-frank-wounded

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

($ but send me an email if you would like a copy of this report and are
not yet a subscriber)

While household net worth has been rising at around a +5% pace in recent
years, real per capita gains in net worth in this expansion have been
much less impressive given population growth and inflation. This is
especially true since households will ultimately be responsible for
elevated government debt.

There'll be no records set this week by Australian economic
growth figures

https://theconversation.com/therell-be-no-records-set-this-week-by-australian-economic-growth-figures-78830

Saul Eslake

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

Australia hasn't had a recession – defined as consecutive quarters of
‘negative growth' in real GDP since the first half of 1991. Some have
claimed that, with the release of first quarter GDP figures on 7th June
2017, Australia will have surpassed a ‘record' for recession-free growth
established by the Netherlands between 1981 and 2008. In this piece
published on The Conversation I look at whether this is in fact a valid
claim.

FinTech Favorites

https://econvue.com/pulse/fintech-favorites

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

This week's report focuses on some of my long-time favorite sources of
banking and FinTech news and insight. I follow the industry through
reports from media organizations and industry experts I respect and
trust. I started thinking about my sources and methods after reading Ron
Shevlin's post "FinTech influencer lists have jumped the shark."

If you have been receiving this newsletter sporadically instead of
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With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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