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10/14/2016 08:06 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

With assistance from Rachael Bade and Daniel Lippman

WHAT'S NEXT FOR PAUL RYAN? With Donald Trump continuing to tank in the polls-and seemingly content to take Republican leaders down with him-that leaves a big question on the table: What happens to House Speaker Paul Ryan? Jake, Rachael and Bres break down the options:

-Option 1 (the most likely): Ryan keeps a House majority, but it's significantly slimmed down-- "If Trump loses to Clinton in a landslide, a sizable number of Republicans could go down with him. That would leave Ryan scrambling to round up the votes to keep his gavel. He needs 218 Republicans to vote for him on the floor to become speaker in the next Congress. And while goodwill helped him clear that bar last year, the honeymoon is over," they report.

And even if he does win the speaker's gavel, "being in charge of a smaller majority would force Ryan to completely own any deals he cuts with a Clinton White House. That's certain to create friction in his ranks - and could complicate his political future."

-Option 2: He leaves Congress- "One theory is that Ryan will step aside if Republicans balk at returning him to the speaker's chair, or make him jump over impossibly high hurdles to get there. This was never Ryan's dream job, and he's unlikely to allow conservatives to twist his arm. 'Paul will never be taken hostage by those guys,' said a top GOP lawmaker, speaking on the condition of anonymity."

Pros and cons: Ryan would lose his current national platform but wouldn't have to fight many of the battles that come with being a speaker and could use the down time to plug holes in his resumé (assuming he want to run for president in 2020).

-Option 3: Minority Leader- "Ryan's own predilection is toward incremental progress. His minority would likely consist of 200-odd votes, which would give him a strong hand in negotiations with President Hillary Clinton and [Nancy] Pelosi." Still, Democrats would need to pick up at least 30 seats to take back the gavel, a tall (but not impossible) order under any election scenario.

RYAN'S Q3 FUNDRAISING HAUL- "Ryan raised $15.4 million for House Republicans in the third quarter, his political operation will announce Friday - bringing the speaker's total haul this year to nearly $50 million as he works to protect his House majority," Rachael reports. "In the past 11 months Ryan's transferred $31 million to fellow Republicans through the National Republican Congressional Committee. He's attended over 80 events to raise an additional $10 million for member committee's, and his own fundraising entities... have cut 200 checks totaling $1 million to federal candidates and state committees."

Related: "House Republicans' flagship super PAC and its allied nonprofit are infusing an additional $10 million into 15 House races across the country," report Elena and Theo. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e0ff1c0f92cb7a2171951fccf27863cdb3df947bbee6a0e10c

HUDDLE EXCLUSIVE: House Majority Whip Steve Scalise has raised and donated $18.9 million to House Republicans this election cycle, giving the most of any whip to the National Republican Congressional Committee ($2.5 million). The Louisiana Republican's office will file a $1.1 million fundraising haul for the third quarter in the coming days. He's dolled out cash to 75 percent of the conference, holding 300 events throughout the cycle in 36 states and 95 cities.

THERE'S NO FRIDAY DURING ELECTION SEASON. Welcome to Oct. 14. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. Your Huddle host is so, so sad the Nats lost last night but I'm looking forward to (hopefully) a nice quiet birthday tomorrow. And this weekend the Tide takes on Tennessee in Knoxville, kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Cheers!

THURSDAY'S MOST CLICKED- Doug Applegate's new ad tying Darrell Issa to Donald Trump

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The House and Senate are out.

WAY OFF THE HILL- House Speaker Paul Ryan will participate in a Q&A session with college Republicans at the Madison Masonic Center in Wisconsin starting at 12 p.m. CT.

GOP MEMBERS UNMOVED BY LATEST TRUMP ALLEGATIONS-- After the release of the Trump groping tape over the weekend, dozens of congressional Republicans couldn't move fast enough to distance themselves from their nominee. But now, as a stream of new sexual harassment allegations trickle out, lawmakers like Sens. Richard Burr, Ron Johnson and Roy Blunt are holding firm in their Trump support (including many who un-endorsed him over the weekend only to re-up their support for him this week), reports Seung Min. "After standing by Trump through all this, it's hard to imagine what, at this point, it would take to change their minds," she writes.

Exhibit A: "'I'm not going to defend Donald Trump or what he said,' Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) said during a North Carolina Senate debate Thursday night. 'But when I look at our choice, it's not close for me. I'm going to support my nominee. I'm going to support Donald Trump.'"

What about the flip floppers? Sen. Dean Heller had this to say about colleagues like Sens. John Thune and Deb Fischer who called on Trump to step aside over the weekend only to turn around and say they're voting for him in November: "'I don't get it. I have to tell you, I don't get it,' Heller said. 'It's very painful for me to watch these candidates move back and forth, and colleagues move back and forth, on where they are with Trump. I'm in the same place I've always been.'"

REPUBLICANS DROP TRUMP (FROM THEIR EMAILS)- Most Senate Republicans may be standing by Trump through the latest allegations but that doesn't mean they want to fundraise with him. Shane Goldmacher with a good little nugget: Senate Republicans' campaign arm "had used Trump's name in each of the five days leading up to the release of the tape at 4 p.m. on Oct. 7, including twice earlier that same day, according to a POLITICO account signed up for updates. But in the six days since, Trump's name has appeared only once in the 20 or so emails that the committee has sent." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e0b1117c459e8af069aa7f8cf9f10392eeba87a21dda3ca5c0

TOP GOP DONORS TO THE RNC: Cut ties with Trump now and shift its focus down-ballot. "'Even for loyalists, there is a line beyond which the obvious moral failings of a candidate are impossible to disregard,' [New York investor Bruce Kovner] wrote. 'That line has been clearly breached.'" Jonathan Martin, Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman with the New York Times story: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e0537ecfb44396f4f309a14e3973759cde2b3d5aac1305291f

HUDDLE HIVE MIND- CNN producer Teddy Davis tweeted a juicy note Thursday about a GOP senator who'd been inundated with more than 1,000 pro-Trump phone calls since the lawmaker un-endorsed the GOP nominee over the weekend. Despite the deluge-the senator received 1,018 calls supporting Trump compared to only 44 against-he is sticking by his disavowal. Davis doesn't name the lawmaker but there can only be a handful who qualify. Any guesses? Hit me up: hcaygle@politico.com

TRUMP DOMINATES BURR/ROSS DEBATE- The GOP nominee was a major theme in the televised debate between Sen. Richard Burr and challenger Deborah Ross Thursday night, report Colin Campbell and Tim Funk for the News & Observer in Raleigh. "'If in fact he did it,' Burr said of Trump's boasts on the tape, 'that would be sexual assault. I take him at his word that he didn't do it.' ...After the debate, Burr told reporters that he'd prefer to take the focus of the race off Trump, who Ross frequently mentioned throughout the event."

Womp, womp: "Libertarian Senate candidate Sean Haugh, who was included in one of the three debates in 2014, wasn't allowed to participate Thursday. He said on Twitter he planned to spend the evening at his job delivering pizzas."

N.C. race neck-and-neck: The Burr-Ross showdown came on the heels of the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showing the two candidates in a tie among likely voters, both polling at 46 percent. (Sidenote: That same poll has Ohio Sen. Rob Portman up 18 points over Ted Strickland, 55 percent to 37 percent).

KUSTER'S PERSONAL ASSAULT STORY- In light of the latest Trump allegations, Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster said she felt compelled to talk about when she was sexually assaulted as a young Hill staffer. Holly Ramer with the AP: Kuster "briefly described the incident last summer during a House floor speech about campus sexual assault. But it wasn't until the recent publication of Trump's vulgar and sexually predatory comments that she publicly named the man she says assaulted her." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e082d9c96aa7825e2aec59f0d25e62bbaee1745101b2e1ae74

BLUNT RESIDENCY QUESTIONS CROP UP-Where does Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt live? Well, the answer may not be as easy as you think. Blunt "says he lives in a condominium on John Q Hammons Parkway in Springfield, Mo. But USA TODAY reviewed various financial and legal documents Blunt has filed since he got remarried in 2003 ...Those documents show he has claimed a gamut of other addresses as his residence. They include a campaign office, his Springfield congressional office, and the house he shared in Washington with his wife."

"The questions around Blunt's residence are sensitive because he is married to a Washington lobbyist, Abigail Blunt, head of government relations for Kraft Heinz Co. Her job is in D.C. and they have a son who attends school in Washington." Deirdre Shesgreen and Paul Singer with the story: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e0025af98f61dae1f5434688c40b294f3f2da77cd74b64ebac

AYOTTE, HASSAN TIED IN WBUR POLL- Sen. Kelly Ayotte and challenger Maggie Hassan are tied in the latest WBUR poll, out this morning, at 47 percent each. And 61 percent of likely voters surveyed said Ayotte made the right choice when she disavowed Trump over the weekend. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e05ff266ad057bc24e213bc863299227ffd396aa404e967af0

SPOTTED: Mira Sorvino was on Capitol Hill yesterday with her longtime friend and stage IV breast cancer patient Champagne Joy for a "die in" on the west lawn to raise awareness for additional breast cancer funding for metastatic cancers. "There's a misconception that breast cancer has a lot of research and funding because pink ribbons are everywhere, but fact is that that's not going towards the metastatic cancer that kills 113 women and men a day in this country, which is insane," Sorvino said. See the pics: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e0a88b99156396e3436534fdbff7d2e1c467eb35871d1bc3d2 and http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d5e1aadb31ebe1e0eb3f394b885833b7636560d042aa8271d02bb38f699004ec

THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- Dawson Hobbs correctly guessed that House Speaker Joe Cannon blocked the proposal to construct the Lincoln Memorial for nearly a decade.

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Dawson with today's question: What is the smallest and largest number of members that have been seated in the House of Representatives and what were the respective years? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in Monday's Huddle. Get at me: hcaygle@politico.com

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