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By Elena Schneider | 10/04/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer, Scott Bland and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE THIRD PARTY KIND - "Gary Johnson supporters cushion Senate Republicans," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Republican senators in a host of key battleground states have a cushion between them and Donald Trump in the polls that could be decisive in November. And right now, the difference between Trump losing and GOP senators winning in some states appears to be Gary Johnson supporters. Poll respondents who say they back the Libertarian for president are breaking nearly 2-to-1 for Republican Senate candidates over Democrats. ... Third-party candidates often fade late, but Johnson's polling numbers have remained unusually strong - over 8 percent nationally, according
to the Huffington Post's polling average ... But there is also danger for Republicans, several strategists said. If that unusually large third-party vote does fade, it's possible that some people supporting Johnson now will simply stay home on Election Day - robbing some Republican candidates of votes they need to out-run Trump." Full story.

FIRST IN SCORE - New Senate Leadership Fund spots in Missouri, Nevada and Pennsylvania: The GOP super PAC has new ads in a trio of states this morning. In Missouri, the group uses a photocopier spitting out images of Kander to show he's a "carbon copy" of Hillary Clinton who supports Obamacare and her "status quo agenda." Watch it here. In Pennsylvania, a spot tells a story about Katie McGinty out of a book called "tales of corruption." "As the old saying goes, follow the money," a female narrator says. "And Katie McGinty took that to heart." Watch it here. In Nevada, the group continues the assault on Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto over untested rape kits with an ad contrasting her effort
to other attorneys general around the country. "She failed Nevada," a female narrator concludes. Watch it here.

NEW THIS MORNING - Congressional Leadership Fund rolling out FL-18 ad, CO-06 reservation: The House GOP super PAC is out with a new TV ad, targeting Democrat Randy Perkins as a part of a $2.1 million ad reservation in FL-18. The ad casts Perkins as a shady businessman whose company was "accused of grossly overcharging a local school district and eventually paid back $200,000" and who "made a fortune" off of disasters like Hurricane Katrina. Watch the ad here.

- CLF is also adding to its fall TV schedule with a $1.3 million ad buy in CO-06 against Democrat Morgan Carroll, who's running against GOP Rep. Mike Coffman. The group will air TV and digital ads from Oct. 25 through Election Day in Denver.

VEEP DEBATE PREVIEW - "Pence vs. Kaine: Battle of the normals," by POLITICO Magazine's Todd S. Purdum: "It looms as the most normal political encounter of this paranormal political year: two middle-aged career politicians, experienced legislators and governors, debating for 90 minutes over their sharp but presumably civilized policy differences on the issues of the day." Full story.

- The New York Times goes inside Kaine and Pence debate prep, with harmonica-playing Kaine opting to practice rather than attending a potentially tempting nearby bluegrass festival in North Carolina.

Days until the 2016 election: 35.

Days until the presidential debate: 5.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about belching: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - Q3 FUNDRAISING - Sen. Rob Portman raises $4.5 million, via POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Ohio GOP Sen. Rob Portman is showing no signs of slowing down in his reelection campaign despite a widening lead over former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, posting his best fundraising quarter of the cycle on Tuesday. Portman raised $4.5 million in the third quarter, campaign aides said, leaving him $7.6 million on hand." Full story.

DEBATE NIGHT - Ayotte backtracks on saying 'absolutely' Trump is a role model: New Hampshire Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte made the first misstep of the fall debate season on Monday night, telling a panelist at the NECN/Concord Monitor debate she thought Trump "absolutely" could serve as a role model for children. She attempted to dodge the first question, but the questioner then followed up, and Ayotte responded: "I think that, certainly, there are many role models that we have, and I believe he can serve as president and absolutely I would do that." Watch the clip here.

- Ayotte, who has tried to separate from Trump about as much as any GOP senator in the core battlegrounds, sent out a statement later Monday night: "I misspoke tonight. While I would hope all of our children would aspire to be president, neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton have set a good example and I wouldn't hold up either of them as role models for my kids." Democrats leapt on the answer and may still try to use the clip, either in paid or free media. Other Republican Senate candidates should probably prepare for the same question.

- Kirk and Duckworth have first Illinois debate: GOP Sen. Mark Kirk was measured during the first Illinois Senate debate Monday, rarely criticizing opponent Rep. Tammy Duckworth - while Duckworth took numerous shots at Kirk. The candidates discussed issues including gun control and foreign policy, and Duckworth challenged Kirk over past gaffes, like calling GOP Sen. Lindsay Graham a "bro with no ho." Kirk said he's sometimes "too quick to turn a phrase" in response. At the end of the debate, which as moderated by The Chicago Tribune's editorial board, Duckworth tried to press Kirk into committing to several televised debates.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

ROSE POLL - Siena poll: Katko 53, Deacon 34 in NY-24: GOP Rep. John Katko has a huge lead over his Democratic challenger in a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll. Katko leads Democrat Colleen Deacon 53 percent to 34 percent among likely voters. Katko is better known and has stronger favorability numbers. Fifty-one percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Katko (including 39 percent of Democrats) and 29 percent have an unfavorable one; 32 percent have a favorable opinion of Deacon, and 27 percent have an unfavorable one. Katko is also running 20 points ahead of Donald Trump in the upstate New York swing district, where Hillary Clinton took 45 percent to Trump's 33 percent.
Full results here.

- FIRST IN SCORE - NV-03 GOP poll: Tarkanian 42, Rosen 37: "A new internal poll from the NRCC shows Nevada Republican Danny Tarkanian with a small lead over Democrat Jacky Rosen in a top Democratic target district, after more than a month of DCCC attacks against Tarkanian on TV." Full story.

STILL ALL ABOUT '08 - As President Barack Obama told New York Magazine this week that he sees "a straight line from the announcement of Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential nominee to what we see today in Donald Trump," GOP Sen. John McCain's running mate continues to be a topic of conservation even amidst his Senate reelection bid eight years later. McCain reiterated on local radio Monday that he doesn't regret his VP pick: "I did the right thing with asking Sarah Palin, and I'm proud of that selection. And I know a lot of people disagree with me, but my response to that - to this day, I have never seen anybody attacked to the degree that she was in the media. Shame on them. ... For
example, she said, 'I can see Russia from back yard.' Well, you know figuratively, that is true. The Russians are not that far away." Hear McCain answer KFYI's Mike Broomhead's questions about whether he looks back on 2008 with any regrets here.

MORE NEW ADS - In Indiana ... Democrat Evan Bayh's new ad features Hoosiers talking about his work saving auto jobs during the recession. "With the recession threatening 100,000 Hoosier auto jobs, Evan Bayh went to work, forcing both parties to come together to keep Indiana working" a narrator says in the ad. "I'm a Hoosier, proud to be one, and so is Evan Bayh," a man says. Watch the ad here.

- In North Carolina ... GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is out with a positive TV spot that highlights his economic record. When he took office, McCrory said, the state had "record unemployment, high taxes and huge budget shortfalls." But "now, we have one of the fastest growing economies in this country. ... That's results not politics." he says. Watch the ad here.

- In Nevada ... Former Ambassador John Bolton stars in a new positive TV and digital spot on behalf of Republican Rep. Joe Heck in the Senate race, part of a $1 million ad buy from Bolton's super PAC. The ad focuses on electing senators who "understand that our presence in the world protects the American way of life ... peace over there means peace at home." The super PAC is out with five different variations on the ad. Watch one of the ads here.

- In CA-49 ... Democrat Doug Applegate's new attack ad against Republican Rep. Darrell Issa features Jaime Hazan, a former Rockland County emergency medical technician and a 9/11 responder, saying: "... Darrell Issa and the Tea Party Republicans decided to play politics with our lives. The Tea Party Republicans actually voted to deny healthcare to 9/11 first responders." The ad cuts to Issa quotes, with Hazan saying, "Issa said he'd done enough for something that was 'simply a plane crash.'" The ad will start airing on San Diego broadcast and cable stations today. Watch the ad here.

MORE POLLING DATA - In North Carolina ... "Democrat Roy Cooper leads incumbent GOP Gov. Pat McCrory in North Carolina's governor's race in a new Bloomberg Politics poll, while Democrat Deborah Ross and GOP Sen. Richard Burr remain locked in a neck and neck race, with Ross up by 2 percentage points in this survey. Ross draws 46 percent of the vote to Burr's 44 percent, while Cooper, the state's attorney general, leads McCrory 50 percent to 44 percent in the survey. At the top of the ticket, Hillary Clinton has a nominal 1-point advantage over Donald Trump, 44 percent to 43 percent." Full story.

- EVENT ALERT - Boomer Women and The Election: What's at Stake? A deep-dive conversation on the concerns of women over 50 and how the candidates plan to meet them. We'll discuss how boomer women will influence elections, candidates' plans on Social Security and how they reflect women's economic concerns, policy options to address Alzheimer's Disease and more. Speakers include Lake Research Partners President Celinda Lake, CAP CEO Neera Tanden and more. Thursday, October 6 - 8 a.m. - The Mayflower Hotel. RSVP: here

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "When the chips are down is when I'm at my very best." - Donald Trump in Colorado Monday, selling himself as the comeback kid, POLITICO's Eli Stokols reported from Pueblo.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: You're in the final days battle up to election day. As you execute your final push, remember voters will be deluged on overdrive with political messaging - everywhere. In a more fractured media environment, where reach is the real game, it would be wise to consider stepping up your TV advertising, in partnership with Digital ad solutions, to help ensure victory. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and
native) ad solutions, Sinclair Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is -- winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673 **

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