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The Evening CSIS: IMF Forecast, NK’s October Surprise, Boss Live & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please sign up here (http://bit.ly/ecs1s) .


** IMF Forecasts
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The International Monetary Fund today cut its forecast for economic growth in the US and other advanced economies while citing increasing risks from isolationist sentiment, but it upgraded its outlook for emerging markets, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Ian Talley reports (http://www.wsj.com/articles/woes-in-wealthy-countries-to-offset-emerging-market-turnaround-says-imf-1475586001) .

And, as Reuters’ David Lawder reports (http://www.reuters.com/article/imf-growth-idUSL2N1CA0RY) , the IMF warned that further stagnation will fuel more populist sentiment against trade and immigration that would stifle activity, productivity, and innovation.


** North Korea's October Surprise
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If history is any guide, provocative actions from North Korea can be expected around the time of US elections, a new CSIS study shows, as CNN’s Brian Todd reports (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/politics/north-korea-us-elections-2016/) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s micro-website “Beyond Parallel (http://beyondparallel.csis.org/) ” today also released its poll of attitudes from inside North Korea, which reveals a clear sense of discontent among respondents about the NK government.


** Duterte Unplugged (again)
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President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines complained today that Washington is refusing to sell weapons to his government and said that President Obama “can go to hell,” as the
New York Times’ Richard Paddock reports (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-barack-obama.html?_r=0) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Amy Searight and Phuong Nguyen authored a commentary late last week: “In Washington, Yasay Defends the Duterte Doctrine (https://www.csis.org/analysis/washington-yasay-defends-duterte-doctrine) .”


** In That Number
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** 589,000,000
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The number of Chinese people expected to travel this week during the annual Golden Week holiday, a new record. Source: New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/asia/china-holiday-travel-golden-week.html?ref=world&_r=1) .


** Critical Quote
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** "Doing a major test would be a way of trying to intimidate the incoming president. North Korea chooses particular windows that they know will gain maximum attention from the world, and the US in particular."
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— CSIS's Victor Cha on the potential of future North Korean provocations. Source: CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/politics/north-korea-us-elections-2016/) .


** One to Watch
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Richard Downie is deputy director and fellow with the CSIS Africa Program. His latest report (https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161003_Downie_ClimateVariabilityElNino_Web.pdf) looks at the effect of El Niño in Southern Africa and how it has led to heightened food insecurity in the region. Also check out the CSIS original video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSETZbNqXyU) that accompanies the report, featuring footage from the field and narrated by Downie.


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images.)

South African police today fired rubber bullets, stun grenades, and teargas at student protesters in Johannesburg as authorities tried to reopen Wits University after weeks of demonstrations. The university, along with many campuses across South Africa, has been closed for at least two weeks during protests over tuition fees, with violent clashes regularly erupting among students, police, and private security guards.


** Highly Recommended
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A Torch Kept Lit (http://atorchkeptlit.com/) , a collection of the extraordinary eulogies by William F. Buckley, edited by my buddy James Rosen.


** CSIS Today
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CSIS’s Africa Program and Global Food Security Project hosted “Sounding the Alarm on Southern Africa’s Food Crisis (https://www.csis.org/events/sounding-alarm-southern-africa-food-crisis) .”


** CSIS Tomorrow
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Join us at 8:00 a.m. for “Enriching the Policy Ecosystem: Broadening the Talent Base (https://www.csis.org/events/enriching-policy-ecosystem-broadening-talent-base) ,” a discussion of how to create a workforce in foreign and national security that reflects changing demographics in the US.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join Brookings at 8:15 a.m. for “What Does Success in the Middle East Look Like for the Next President? (https://www.brookings.edu/events/what-does-success-in-the-middle-east-look-like-for-the-next-president/) ”

And join the East-West Center at 12:00 p.m. for “Competing Economic Initiatives in Asia: The Stakes and Role of the US-Japan Alliance (http://www.eastwestcenter.org/events/competing-economic-initiatives-in-asia-the-stakes-and-role-the-us-japan-alliance) .”


** CSIS On Demand
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EU and Afghan leaders meet this week at the 2016 Brussels Conference to discuss future foreign assistance for Afghanistan. Watch “Afghanistan's Development Outlook for the Next Decade (https://www.csis.org/events/afghanistans-development-outlook-next-decade) ” hosted by CSIS’s Project on Prosperity and Development to learn the potential and future outcomes of the Conference.


** Sounds
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The CSIS Podcast released “Understanding JASTA (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/csis-podcast) ” this week, featuring a discussion with CSIS’s Jon Alterman about the law, what it would mean, and how it reflects a shift in how the US-Saudi alliance is perceived from both sides.


** I Like It Like That
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The new Google phone (http://www.theverge.com/a/google-pixel-phone-new-hardware-interview-2016) . Not sure I like it, but it’s interesting enough to check out.


** Smiles
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One of the greatest concert films I’ve ever seen is “Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band: Live in New York City,” a film produced by HBO.

It’s the opening song that gets me every time. “My Love Will Not Let You Down,” is a track that didn’t even make it on to The Boss’s seminal 1984 album “Born in the U.S.A.”

Springsteen manager Jon Landau wanted it to be the opening track of side B, but somehow E Street Band member “Little” Steven Van Zandt won that battle when he insisted “No Surrender” make the cut. “No Surrender” became a monster hit, though not a top 10 like seven other tracks on the album proved to be.

In 1998, Springsteen released “Tracks,” four discs of material that never made it—demos, B-sides, auditions and never-before-heard songs. “My Love Will Not Let You Down” is among my favorites of this 66 song collection.

The Boss started playing the song live during his “E Street Reunion Tour” (1999-2000) and he hasn’t quit playing it since.

Watch this clip (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEtBrYY3_a4) from the HBO film and you can see why. To me, this is one of Springsteen’s most intense performances. He’s telling his audience how he feels about them, and they get it. Loud and clear. And there’s no better smile than that.


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, Jackie Ramsay, and James Dunton.

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