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10/11/2016 08:02 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

RYAN: STUCK BETWEEN TRUMP AND A HARD PLACE- House Speaker Paul Ryan's message to his conference: Do what you need to do in terms of Donald Trump to win your district. For some members, that means standing firmly behind the GOP nominee and for others that means backing far away. For Ryan, he hasn't rescinded his endorsement of Trump--although he has no plans to campaign with or defend the GOP nominee--but he hasn't completely ruled it out, Jake and Bres report in a deep dive of the last 48 hours, out this morning.

Ryan is in an agonizing spot, personally leaning toward taking back his endorsement but "has held out because his decision is about more than just his personal feelings: It's about saving his massive 60-seat majority. ... He feels torn between his own conscience and his obligations as the top Republican in the country."

Just this morning, from Trump's Twitter account: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) "Desite [sic] winning the second debate in a landslide (every poll), it is hard to do well when Paul Ryan and others give zero support!"

YOU CAN GO YOUR OWN WAY-- Ryan's direction to members to save themselves after Friday's release of the bombshell Trump tape carries with it huge political risks, Jake and Bres report, and is essentially "a concession by the highest-ranking elected Republican that his nominee for president can't win - and lawmakers should save themselves and the Republican-controlled Congress to act as a check on Hillary Clinton."

The speaker immediately faced pushback from all sides-some rank-and-filers in pro-Trump districts said it was a huge mistake to abandon their GOP nominee, Trump needled Ryan on Twitter, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus held a call declaring the national committee is still firmly on Team Trump and Democrats pushed out statements saying Ryan and other Republicans leaders aren't off the hook. Still, Ryan has the backing of his leadership team- "It was the only move that made any sense," said one GOP source-and spent Monday taking calls from supportive members. The full story: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c18c537154a247a0b6ecc0ece13bf36dd082d607f08f8c213ea6302eecf2b637

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS MITCH McCONNELL? Well, he's keeping an intentionally low profile, write Burgess and Seung Min. The Senate majority leader "is counseling individual senators and candidates about how to position themselves alongside Trump - without dictating strategy," they write. But unlike Ryan, McConnell hasn't pulled back from Trump, at least not yet. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c18c537154a247a078e9b05bc2357340084daaf203992aefb5aac885d01b2574

From the AP's Adam Beam: "If you are interested in the presidential election you might as well go ahead and leave because I don't have any observations to make about it," McConnell told a Chamber of Commerce crowd in Kentucky Monday.

HEADLINE DU JOUR: "As Rubio hides amid Trump controversy, Florida poll shows senator up 7," by our in-house Florida man, Marc Caputo.

DEMOCRATS SINGING THE SAME TUNE- With less than a month to go until the election, Democrats are all singing the same tune-tie Republicans to their nominee at every turn. You'll remember BuzzFeed's Ruby Cramer pointed out that in early summer Clinton-world switched up the strategy, pivoting away from linking all Republicans to Donald Trump and instead casting him as extreme, even for the GOP. Well, it seems Democratic leaders are all back on board with the "you've gotta dance with the one that brought ya" argument.

Clinton tweeted "Ryan is still endorsing Trump" after news that the speaker was trying to distance himself from Trump on Monday. And House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer said Republicans can try to separate themselves from the billionaire but "they cannot separate themselves from the dysfunction and division he represents."

House Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra on the Daily Show Monday: "We're certainly on our way [to taking back the House] if Donald Trump continues to act the way he's acting and if the Republicans who call themselves leaders continue to act the way they're acting," he said.

And House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi really spelled it out: "There's not a dime's worth of difference in terms of policy between Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress," she said on CNN Sunday. "They tolerated all the trash that he dished out for a long time and now all of the sudden it's impacting their political future so they're sanctimonious about it. ...They can run, they can't hide."

THANKS FOR TUNING IN THIS TUESDAY, Oct. 11. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. Monday's most-clicked: The running list of Republican lawmakers who have distanced themselves from Trump.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The House is out. The Senate meets in a pro forma session at 9 a.m.

AROUND THE HILL- Pretty quiet. But I bet staffers are probably talking about LuckyTV's take on Monday night's debate. Trust me, it's worth the click: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c18c537154a247a019ed7a326ece1c972abcbdb214dea6ae68c2be8dc99683b7

OFF THE HILL-House Ways and Means ranking member Sandy Levin hosts a call with Americans United for Change about potential election day impacts on Social Security starting at 11 a.m. Email Jeremy Funk (funk@auforchange.org) for dial-in information.

'IT'S A GREAT DAY TO BE IN MULESHOE'- A video that opens with Sen. Ted Cruz offering his review of local Muleshoe Mexican joint Leal's- "the brisket tacos are awfully good"-- ends with Texas' junior senator doubling down on his support for the GOP nominee and the roughly four minute journey is worth the watch: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c18c537154a247a035b6b9cf0f70b6121d5ea33a53e62e53565b4d47eb9763a9 And Burgess with the story (and my nomination for lede of the week): http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c18c537154a247a08d5e0645341ddf2ce225def5b0234d9ea4a4a3206ef64832

BURR STICKS WITH TRUMP (AGAIN)- "For at least the fourth time during this election cycle, Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr opposes something said by Donald Trump while supporting him as the GOP presidential candidate," reports Bertrand Gutiérrez for the Winston-Salem Journal.

REPUBLICANS BRACING FOR POTENTIAL WAVE- With the latest NBC/WSJ poll showing Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead over Trump (conducted after the tape was released), Republicans are bracing for the possibility of a Democratic down-ballot sweep but several pollsters say it's still too early to tell, reports Kevin Robillard. "A half-dozen pollsters from both parties working on House races say that they don't expect useful internal polling data to come in until midweek at the earliest."

BAYH'S BAD DAY GETS WORSE- "Evan Bayh met several times with executives from a future employer during his final months in the U.S. Senate - a direct contradiction of what his campaign has said in recent weeks," report Tony Cook and Chelsea Schneider for the Indianapolis Star. Reporters for the paper had initially been told Bayh didn't meet with folks from Apollo-the private equity firm where he started soon after leaving the Senate-that is, until the AP story came out over the weekend directly contradicting that.

Now Bayh's campaign is on clean up duty: "Adam Aron, the Apollo official who hosted Bayh at his Central Park South residence, is a longtime friend, [campaign spokesman Ben] Ray said Monday. 'That's not a meeting with an official from Apollo, that's staying with a lifelong friend,' Ray said."

TWEET DU JOUR-Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan): House recess activities: TX GOP @RepPeteOlson is a school crossing guard. See the pic: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c18c537154a247a0a6a36774ce5ee6fc137d137becf368db0eead00df45f69bc

McCAIN: 'I worry about' the GOP- Sen. John McCain and challenger Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick faced off Monday night in their one and only debate, going head-to-head on Obamacare, immigration and of course, Trump. Kirkpatrick "has painted [McCain] as a politically calculating D.C. insider desperate to cling to power. She has constantly hammered McCain for his previous support of Trump even in spite of their history of personal antagonism."

"McCain's campaign, in turn, has characterized Kirkpatrick's record as largely do-nothing on big issues such as comprehensive immigration reform," report Dan Nowicki and Ronald Hansen for the Arizona Republic. "McCain acknowledged, 'I worry about the future of the Republican Party.'"

And wondering who McCain might vote for now that he's sworn off Trump? Well, it might just be his ol' pal (and former presidential candidate) Sen. Lindsey Graham, tweets Frank Thorp.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- Claude Marx was the first to guess that David Davis stepped down from the Supreme Court to serve in the Senate in 1877. And a special shout-out to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who also guessed correctly yesterday morning.

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Claude with today's question: The Chicago Cubs could win the World Series for the first time since 1908. That year, one of the team's owners was half brother of one of that year's presidential candidates. Name them both. The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in tomorrow's Huddle. Get at me: hcaygle@politico.com

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