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By Theodoric Meyer | 10/12/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Elena Schneider, Kevin Robillard, Maggie Severns and Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

POSTCARD FROM THE GOP CAMPAIGN TRAIL - "Toomey tries to sidestep Trump," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Villanova, Pa.: "GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is an undecided voter. The first-term Republican made the declaration Tuesday morning at a 'Women for Toomey' event in suburban Philadelphia, where he was pressed to say whether or not he would vote for Donald Trump in November. The latest Trump-related conflagration to hit the 2016 election - backlash over the 2005 tape of Trump describing unwanted advances toward and sexual assault of women - could hardly come at a worse time for Toomey, who is trying to keep enough voters in his corner to win reelection even as many reject Trump in his state."
Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - "Pelosi rakes in $35 million in the third quarter," by POLITICO's Heather Caygle: "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi brought in nearly $35 million for Democrats during the third quarter of this year, further cementing her role as Democrats' big money raiser as she surpasses her fundraising total for the last election cycle. Pelosi (D-Calif.) reported a $34.6 million haul for the months of July, August and September, including nearly $29 million for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Pelosi has raised nearly $128 million for House Democrats this cycle, already surpassing the $101 million she brought in during the 2014 election." Full story.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT - WAR ON WAR - "Colorado's initiative to end initiatives," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Colorado is considering a self-destruct option this fall for its oft-used ballot initiative process. For years, the state's citizens have regularly voted on big-ticket constitutional amendments - from legalizing marijuana to rejecting 'personhood' and GMO labeling efforts - giving Colorado a reputation as a testing ground for ideas in state and national policy. But a cadre of politicians and industries are trying to persuade voters that they have amended their constitution too easily, filling it with flawed ideas and policies. So proponents have put
forward a highly unusual ballot measure to end (almost) all ballot measures: Amendment 71, which would make it harder - nearly impossible, their opponents say - to put a constitutional amendment before voters in Colorado." Full story.

Days until the 2016 election: 27.

Days until the third presidential debate: 7.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and nearly as often about flying the W: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - Burr hammers away at Ross' ACLU record: A new ad from GOP Sen. Richard Burr accuses Democrat Deborah Ross of having a "dangerous record." The ad, which will air statewide on broadcast stations, features Forsyth County District Attorney Jim O'Neill. "As an ACLU lobbyist, Deborah Ross fought against public disclosure of sex offenders," O'Neill says in the ad, and "even sued to end our 48-hour cooling off period for domestic violence." O'Neill also says Ross "voted against a law that would allow law enforcement to collect DNA from criminals who willfully injured innocent people with an explosive device." Watch the ad here.

FIRST IN SCORE - Johnson campaign memo claims he's ahead: Just one public poll in recent months has shown GOP Sen. Ron Johnson leading Democrat Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, but Johnson's campaign claims he has a slight lead in a new memo. "Our internal data has shown a consistent tightening of the race since August, and now shows Ron with a slight edge and independents breaking our way," Betsy Ankey, Johnson's campaign manager, writes in the memo. (The campaign notes the same data operation predicted Gov. Scott Walker's 2014 victory.) Read more here.

- New Johnson ad attacks Feingold over Obamacare: Johnson's campaign is out with a new TV ad featuring voters criticizing Feingold for supporting Obamacare. "Obamacare is crushing small businesses," a snowy-haired man says. "With all the damage that Obamacare has done, how can Russ Feingold brag about" being the deciding vote to pass the law, a mustachioed man says. "He should be ashamed." Watch the ad here. Johnson is also going up with two new radio ads bashing Feingold. Listen to them here and here.

FIRST IN SCORE - McSally raises $1.6 million in third quarter in AZ-02: GOP Rep. Martha McSally of Arizona raised $1.6 million in the third quarter, the biggest haul of the cycle to date of any representative not in leadership. Her campaign had more than $2 million in cash on hand on Sept. 30 - a big obstacle for her Democratic opponent, Matt Heinz, who is on the air but hasn't been getting help from outside groups.

MORE ADS - Hassan attacks gridlock in new ad: A new TV ad from Democrat Maggie Hassan's Senate campaign in New Hampshire features her speaking about fixing Washington, "where drug company profits come before affordable medicine, the Koch brothers and Big Oil come before clean energy and powerful corporations beat out entrepreneurs looking to grow their small businesses." Watch the ad here.

- Democrats attack Young on outsourcing: Senate Majority PAC and the National Education Association are teaming up to air a new TV ad in Indiana that links GOP Rep. Todd Young to layoffs at Carrier. "When Carrier shipped Indiana jobs to Mexico, workers needed a congressman on their side," the ad's narrator says. "But Todd Young took contributions from the company and its executives - even after the announcement." Watch the ad here.

- Applegate, DCCC ads use Trump's lewd comments against Issa: California Democrat Doug Applegate's latest TV ad includes a bleeped version of Donald Trump's controversial "grab them by the p----" comments from 2005, which were published Friday. A new ad from the DCCC also attacks Republican Rep. Darrell Issa and links him to Trump and the comments, though without playing the tape. Applegate's ad cuts to excerpts of Issa saying Trump is the "obvious choice" for president. "On the day we saw the real Donald Trump, Darrell Issa decided to join Trump's campaign," the ad's narrator says, flashing a news clipping showing Issa has joined Trump's national security advisory council. The ad will air
on broadcast and cable throughout the district, per Applegate's campaign. More here.

- Issa responded by decrying the ad as "hypocritical and misleading." "If Democrats want to use treatment of women as a litmus test, they should run the hell away from Doug Applegate," Issa said in a statement. "Court records paint a disturbing and grotesque picture of Applegate's years long pattern of abusive, bullying and disrespectful acts."

JOHN, POLL, GEORGE AND RINGO - CA-49 GOP poll: Issa 48, Applegate 39: "An internal poll released by GOP Rep. Darrell Issa's campaign shows the Republican incumbent still leading in his reelection race, though by a slightly narrower margin than in his last internal, as the DCCC prepare[d] to target the district for the first time. The new poll for Issa, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, showed him leading Democrat Doug Applegate 48 percent to 39 percent. ... The Issa poll did not include details on presidential performance in the district. Last week, the DCCC put out its own internal poll showing Applegate up four points, 46 percent to 42 percent. It also found Hillary Clinton with a
double digit lead over Donald Trump." Full story here.

- ON THE LOOKOUT - New poll highlights Yoder, KS-03 as Democratic targets: "A new internal poll conducted for the DCCC independent expenditure unit shows GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder narrowly leading Democrat Jay Sidie, 44 percent to 40 percent, in the Kansas City suburbs. Libertarian Steve Hohe picks up 9 percent in the multi-way ballot test, though third-party support typically drops on Election Day. Yoder leads Sidie 50 percent to 45 percent head-to-head. Mitt Romney carried the district with 54 percent in 2012, but Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 52 percent to 42 percent in the Democratic poll." Full story.

- MN-02 GOP poll: Lewis 36, Craig 33: Republican Jason Lewis leads Democrat Angie Craig 36 percent to 33 percent, with 26 percent of voters undecided, in a new poll conducted by the NRCC. Though Lewis has a background as a conservative radio host who sometimes made controversial remarks, the NRCC poll found that only 29 percent of voters have a negative view of Lewis - the same percentage as Craig. Both candidates have 70 percent name ID in the district. The poll was conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research and surveyed 400 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Read the polling memo here.

MORE MONEY - AFSCME antes up spending on Senate races: AFSCME is upping its spending on Senate races by $8 million and now plans to spend $22.5 million in total to help Democrats take back the upper chamber. The nation's largest public sector union is currently airing TV ads attacking Republicans in North Carolina and Missouri, and today will begin a $730,000 radio campaign in Nevada that will air through Election Day. The union has shelled out on Senate races in New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio this cycle.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT - "Tuesday deluge: Campaign Pro's ad roundup," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: Full roundup.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Split over Donald Trump threatens to tilt Republican states," by The New York Times' Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin: Hillary Clinton's "campaign has concluded that at least two traditionally Republican states, Georgia and Arizona, are realistic targets for her campaign to win over. And Republican polling has found that Mr. Trump is at dire risk of losing Georgia, according to people briefed on the polls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Mrs. Clinton now holds such a strong upper hand that Priorities USA ... may direct some of its war chest into Senate races, two people said, and may begin broadcasting ads for those contests as soon as next week.
Congressional Democrats also hope to persuade Mrs. Clinton to continue pouring money and campaign resources into states like Virginia and Colorado, where they believe her victory is assured, in order to lift other Democrats running for office." Full story.

- "Podesta: FBI investigating email hack," by POLITICO's Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni: The FBI is investigating the hack of his Gmail account, Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta said Tuesday, suggesting that a top Trump adviser had prior knowledge of the damaging data breach. Podesta, speaking to reporters aboard Clinton's flight back to New York after a Florida campaign swing, said that Roger Stone, a longtime friend of Donald Trump's - who has spoken to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange - had "advance knowledge" of the leaks. He described himself as a victim and said he's working with federal investigators to track down the culprits." Full story.

- "Democratic elector says he may reject Clinton," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: Robert Satiacum Jr. calls Hillary Clinton a "clown," a "rat," a "criminal" and a virtual clone of Donald Trump. But that's not all. He's also one of 12 Democrats designated to cast his electoral vote for Clinton if she wins Washington, a blue state she's expected to easily carry. Now, he's caught in a fierce personal struggle over whether to rebel against her in the Electoral College, a decision that could create havoc in a close presidential contest. "How can I say and do and be who I am and then cast a vote for somebody that's the same as Trump?" Satiacum wondered. "They may be male, female, but they're in the
same canoe." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I apologize for my failure to immediately condemn anyone who would say something as outrageous as they like raping women." - Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas), in a tweet shortly after he fumbled his response to question from MSNBC's Chris Hayes.

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