EMAIL DETAILS

*Colombia's presidential election*

*The maths of a Green revolution*
Apr 29th 2010 | SANTA MARTA
From The Economist print edition


*Antanas Mockus is in many ways the opposite of Álvaro Uribe, the popular
outgoing president. So why are the polls saying the upstart might replace
him?*

**

A FEW months ago when Antanas Mockus (above) started campaigning for this
month’s presidential election, his security detail comprised his campaign
manager walking a few feet in front of him as they toured from city to city
arousing sparse audiences. But at a recent rally in Santa Marta, on
Colombia’s Caribbean coast, Mr Mockus, a former mayor of Bogotá who is the
candidate of a newly formed Green Party, arrived in a bulletproof SUV. Half
a dozen bodyguards surrounded him as chanting crowds pressed forward to
shake his hand. With four weeks to go before the vote, he has shot to the
top of the opinion polls. One survey, published on April 26th in *Semana*, a
news magazine, gave him 38% of the vote, up from just 9% a month before.
This week another, by Invamer-Gallup, had him on 32%, just three points
behind Juan Manuel Santos, who claims to be the heir of Álvaro Uribe, the
outgoing president. Both polls suggested that Mr Mockus would beat Mr Santos
in a run-off.

Only a few weeks ago Mr Santos was seen by many as a shoo-in. Mr Uribe’s
security build-up and offensive against the FARC guerrillas has made the
president, who was first elected in 2002, extraordinarily popular (the *
Semana* poll gave him an approval rating of 74%). As Mr Uribe’s defence
minister for three years, Mr Santos was responsible for several decisive
blows against the guerrillas, including a spectacular operation that freed
Ingrid Betancourt, a Franco-Colombian politician, and 14 other FARC
hostages. A competent technocrat from an establishment family, he has also
been finance and trade minister.

But whereas Colombians are grateful to Mr Uribe for making the country safer
(though still not wholly safe), many of them dislike the whiff of scandal
that has surrounded his government. His coalition has been fractured by
in-fighting, with two other candidates vying with Mr Santos for its support.

Mr Mockus is different in almost every way. The son of Lithuanian
immigrants, his moustacheless beard gives him the air of a Baltic pastor. He
has a reputation for honesty and an unbending refusal to countenance
corruption or pork-barrel politics. Twice elected as mayor of the capital as
an independent, he shuns Colombia’s traditional political parties. He says
that Colombians want “decency” and that they see in him “someone who is
good”. He endlessly repeats that life and public funds are both “sacred”,
and that combating the violence that has scarred the country must be done
with “democratic legality” and without shortcuts.

As the rector of the National University in Bogotá, Mr Mockus once dropped
his trousers and mooned an auditorium of unruly students to get their
attention. As mayor, he was chief pedagogue, urging *bogotanos* not to run
red lights, dump litter or beat their wives, sometimes dressing up as “Super
Citizen” in spandex to get the message across.

Beyond such tricks, he represents a revolution in local government that has
recently transformed several of Colombia’s bigger cities with a mixture of
fiscal responsibility and innovation. He formed the Green Party with two
other successful mayors of the capital, Luis Eduardo Garzón and Enrique
Peñalosa. They marked their rejection of traditional politics with a
friendly open primary in which 1.6m people voted. They got a big boost when
a rival independent, Sergio Fajardo, who after a successful stint as mayor
of Medellín spent two years preparing his own presidential bid, agreed to
join Mr Mockus as his vice-presidential candidate. Both men are former
mathematics professors.

Another reason for Mr Mockus’s surge is that he and his allies are firmly of
the centre. They say they are neither with nor against Mr Uribe. He vows to
continue the government’s security policies, but not what he calls its
“anything goes” attitude that he blames for abuses of human-rights. He also
says he would never talk to the FARC unless they accept the constitution.

Is the green tide unstoppable? Mr Mockus’s philosophical musings can seem
otherworldly (in rallies he relies on Mr Garzón or Mr Peñalosa to warm up
the crowds). A bigger handicap is that his greatest political
strength—independence—is also an electoral weakness. He lacks ties to local
political machines that dole out building materials, food or cash in return
for votes. They are often decisive in Colombian elections.

Instead, he is financing his campaign with a bank overdraft. His supporters
rely on Facebook and make their own posters; street vendors sell unofficial
campaign T-shirts. Were he to win, he would find governing hard. In a
legislative election in March his party won just five seats in the 102-seat
Senate and only four in the lower house. Even so, he says he would not deal:
“I will just have to present the same bill many times to get it approved.”

As his support has swiftly widened beyond the Bogotá middle class, it has
become clear that Mr Mockus has tapped a national mood that wants change as
well as continuity after Mr Uribe. But he may struggle to convince rural
voters, many of whom revere the outgoing president and who may be
undercounted by the opinion polls. Despite Mr Mockus’s rise, 40% of those
polled for *Semana *said they believed Mr Santos will be Colombia’s next
president. Certainly Mr Santos is by no means out. But he faces a much
bigger fight than he might have imagined.

--
Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.co