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Alan Mollohan loses primary fight

West Virginia Democratic Rep. *Alan Mollohan* lost his bid for a 15th term
tonight at the hands of state Sen. *Mike Oliverio*, a defeat that further
affirms the anti-incumbent sentiment coursing through the country.

Mollohan hadn't faced a serious primary fight in more than a decade and was
seen in some circles as unbeatable given that the 1st district seat had been
in his family since 1968. (His father held it from 1968-1982 before handing
it off to the son.)

But, Oliverio, who served a single term in the state House of Delegates
before being elected to the state Senate in 1994, ran hard against
Mollohan's entrenched incumbent status and the lingering whiff of ethics
problems that had dogged the Congressman for years.

The race has gotten very nasty over its final weeks with Oliverio referring
to Mollohan as "one of the most corrupt members of Congress" and the
incumbent retorting that his opponent is "lying" and "spreading right-wing
smears".

Mollohan, despite regular warning from state and national Democratic
strategists, never seemed to understand the threat posed by Oliverio and,
according to several sources, ran a campaign suited to the early 1990s
rather than 2010 in terms of its sophistication.

On the Republican side, former state Del. *David McKinley *won his party's
nomination. Republicans, however, had made clear they preferred to run
against Mollohan and must now re-orient their strategy.

Mollohan is the first House member to lose a re-election bid in the 2010
cycle and the first Democrat to lose a bid for re-nomination since Rep.*Al
Wynn* (Md.) in 2008. Three House Republicans -- Rep. *Chris Cannon* (Utah),
Rep. *Wayne Gilchrest *(Md.) and Rep. *Dave Davis*(Tenn.) -- lost in
intraparty fights last cycle.

Mollohan's defeat follows hard on a loss by Utah Sen. *Bob Bennett *(R) in
the Beehive State's convention process over the weekend and, as such, will
foment the sense that incumbents -- of all parties and offices -- need to be
on guard heading into the summer primary season and the fall midterms.

(While the race is rightly seen -- at least partially -- through a national
prism in terms of its scope, it's important to remember two factors unique
to this race: Mollohan had been damaged by ethics allegations over the last
few years and Oliverio actually ran to the incumbent's ideological right --
castigating him for his vote in favor of President Obama's health care
bill.)

A recent Washington Post/ABC
poll<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_042810.html?sid=ST2010050500002>
showed
that less than one in three people said they plan to vote to re-elect their
member of Congress -- numbers that haven't been seen in Post/ABC data since
the Republican wave election of 1994.

Just how bad it has gotten for incumbents will be tested in a serious way
next Tuesday when Democratic Sens. *Arlen Specter* (Pa.) and*Blanche
Lincoln *(Ark.) attempt to fend off serious primary challenges.

*Aaron Blake contributed to this report.*
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Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.co