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By Elena Schneider | 10/06/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Maggie Severns, Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

COME ON IN, THE WATER'S WARM - "GOP researchers try the news business," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "When Democrat Ted Strickland joked about the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia during a recent AFL-CIO event, the Ohio Senate candidate met a familiar fate: A recording device spread his words from the meeting to the internet, where news outlets and social media spent a day blasting Strickland's comment. But the way Strickland's gaffe traveled was unusual. The audio was obtained by an under-the-radar website called NTK Network - which happens to be run by operatives connected to Republican opposition research firm America Rising, and is headquartered in the same building.
... America Rising co-founder Joe Pounder and three colleagues launched NTK (short for Need to Know) Network this summer as a side project, along with three colleagues who work for America Rising or Definers Public Affairs ... Pounder and others post collections of links and footage they think will raise eyebrows on a clean, image-heavy site, alongside other developing stories and news of the day about topics less germane to conservative political junkies - like the NFL or, this week, Kim Kardashian." Full story.

TAKES TWO TO TANGO - "The House districts where only one party is on TV," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "For the most part, Republicans and Democrats agree on the top House races of the cycle, and both parties are engaged in TV ad spending in 18 districts so far. But in a handful of potentially key races, one party committee (or its main super PAC ally) is pouring money and ads onto TV - without reply from the other side. In some cases, one party is confident of victory and sees no need to spend, while in others, one side has pulled back money because the outlook for their candidate is bleak. And sometimes, there are local or personal reasons why one party doesn't want to get involved
in a race. But the end result is the same: Thousands of dollars in attack ads flowing in from one side, with no immediate aid for the attacked candidate." Prime examples include NJ-05 and FL-07. Full story.

WARNING SIGNS - "Donald Trump's Slip in Polls Has GOP Worried About Congress," by The New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns: "Donald J. Trump's support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress. ... Should Mr. Trump falter badly in his second debate with Hillary Clinton on Sunday in St. Louis, Republican congressional candidates may take it as a cue to flee openly from their nominee, said two senior Republicans involved at high levels of the campaign who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized
to discuss private party strategy. ... Compounding their difficulties, Republicans are also fending off a challenge to Senator Richard M. Burr in North Carolina, a state Mrs. Clinton is determined to win, and have also become just as worried about Senator Roy Blunt's prospects in Missouri. Strategists in both parties who have seen internal polling say Mr. Blunt, whose seat initially seemed safe, is now trailing his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander." Full story.

Days until the 2016 election: 33.

Days until the presidential debate: 3.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about clowns: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

NEW THIS A.M.- Johnson raises $4 million in Q3: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has raised $4 million in the third quarter, easily his best total of the cycle, and now has $5.4 million on hand. Democrat Russ Feingold announced earlier this week he raised $5.1 million, but didn't reveal his cash on hand number. "The surge in support Ron is receiving as we make clear the choice in this election shows beyond a doubt we'll have the resources we need to beat Senator Feingold again in November, as we've known all along," Johnson spokesman Brian Reisinger said. "We couldn't help but notice that Senator Feingold isn't saying how much money he has on hand in the home stretch - could it be that like a typical
Washington career politician, he's wasted it."

CASH HUSTLE - In Pennsylvania ... "Democrat Katie McGinty raised $5.2 million for her Pennsylvania Senate campaign in the third quarter, along with another $1.1 million for the state's Democratic Party, her campaign said today. The campaign didn't release a cash on hand number." Full story.

- In Nevada ... "Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto raised $5.2 million in the third quarter for her Senate campaign in Nevada, her campaign announced today, giving her $2.2 million in cash on hand heading into the final weeks of the campaign. Cortez Masto had $3.4 million on hand at the end of the second quarter." Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - Jane Portman stars in testimonial ad: GOP Sen. Rob Portman's wife speaks on the senator's behalf in a new ad. "Rob and I met on a blind date. We've been married now for thirty years and have three great kids," Portman says in the ad. "He's got a good heart." Watch the ad here.

- Mica airs first TV ad in FL-07: GOP Rep. John Mica is out with his first ad in Florida, a positive spot focused on his work for veterans. The ad stars Joy Roney, the wife of a World War II veteran. "John Mica got me the help for Louis that I needed through the VA because John Mica did what he said he was going to do," Roney says. "He helps our veterans, and I'm forever thankful." Mica is facing Democrat Stephanie Murphy in an Orlando district that tilts more Democratic following court-ordered redistricting this cycle. It's a coordinated ad buy with the NRCC. Watch the ad here.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

FRESH POLLING DATA - Zinke leads Juneau in Republican poll: An internal poll for GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, Montana's at-large member of Congress, shows him leading Democratic challenger Denise Juneau, with 49 percent of the vote to Juneau's 38 percent, while 3 percent support the Libertarian candidate and 11 percent of voters are undecided. Three other GOP polls conducted for the campaign between June and early October have come back with similar results. The poll was conducted by Moore Information, which surveyed 400 likely voters from Oct. 2-3. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

- CA-07 Republican poll: Jones 47, Bera 42: In California's 7th District, Jones leads Democratic Rep. Ami Bera by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent, per an NRCC internal poll. Two-thirds of voters view Jones favorably, while less than half of voters feel positively about Bera. But both candidates have struggled with high profile negative press - Bera's father was charged with illegally financing his son's campaigns and Jones is mired in a sexual harassment case. In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton has 43 percent to Donald Trump's 39 percent. Public Opinion Strategies surveyed 400 likely voters from Oct. 1-3, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Polling
memo here.

- ME-02 Democratic poll: Cain 46, Poliquin 45: Democrat Emily Cain is essentially tied with GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin in Maine, according to a new internal poll. Cain leads Poliquin 46 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. At the presidential level, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46 percent to 40 percent, a reversal from two polls last month that showed Trump winning by double digits. The poll was conducted by Normington, Petts and Associates Oct. 2-3 and surveyed 400 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Here's the full polling memo.

MORE FROM THE RACES - Quinnipiac: "GOP senators lead in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, tied in North Carolina," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "The most eye-popping result comes from Pennsylvania, where GOP Sen. Pat Toomey has an 8-point lead over Democrat Katie McGinty, 50 percent to 42 percent - even as the same poll showed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 4 points. Other polls in recent days have shown McGinty and Toomey tied or McGinty with a significant lead, but this survey opens up the possibility of Toomey running significantly ahead of Trump. ...In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross and Republican Sen. Richard Burr are tied with 46
percent of the vote. The same poll has Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper earning 48 percent of the vote in the governor's race, to incumbent Republican Pat McCrory's 46 percent. ...Florida Sen. Marco Rubio leads Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, 48 percent to 44 percent, in their race." Story here.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump looks to the West for salvation," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "Donald Trump pledged his appeal to working class whites would put new states in play, opening an electoral path to 270 votes that ran through the Rust Belt. But with five weeks to go and new polling showing Pennsylvania and Michigan out of reach and Hillary Clinton eating into his lead in Ohio, the Republican nominee is blazing a trail across the West. ... 'The path to 270 goes through all the same states as it did in 2012 and 2008,' said Katie Packer, who was Mitt Romney's deputy campaign manager four years ago. 'Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania aren't really even swing states. The math still
comes down to suburban women and Latino voters.'" Full story.

- "NRA out with biggest ad buy yet to boost Trump," by POLITICO's Sarah Wheaton: "The National Rifle Association is out with its biggest ad buy to date, pushing a sympathetic, young voice for gun rights and Donald Trump's candidacy. Starting Wednesday, the NRA is spending $6.5 million on a spot featuring a 26-year-old lawyer named Kristi McMains, who said the pistol in her purse saved her life when a man attacked her in a parking garage. It's a play not just for rural voters - the NRA's core base - but also millennials and women, groups Trump has struggled to attract." Full story.

- "Clinton, Trump brace for Hurricane Matthew," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Steven Shepard: "Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are at risk of being elbowed out of the news cycle by a powerful hurricane churning toward the Southeast coast and threatening to barrel into two of their most important battlegrounds: Florida and North Carolina. But the Clinton camp is refusing to be completely shut out of the conversation: Her team is buying airtime on the Weather Channel in a slew of major Florida media markets. Clinton is seeking to appeal directly to swing-state voters potentially in the path of Hurricane Matthew and will spend $63,000 to reach Weather Channel viewers there for five days
beginning on Thursday, according to a source monitoring TV ad buys. Hurricane Matthew is currently forecast to approach the Florida East Coast late Thursday or on Friday." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: Colorado Republican Senate candidate Darryl Glenn said rape resulting in a pregnancy is "a gift from God," per a new video from a 2015 campaign event in Jefferson County, Colorado.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: You're in the final days battle up to election day. As you execute your final push, remember voters will be deluged on overdrive with political messaging - everywhere. In a more fractured media environment, where reach is the real game, it would be wise to consider stepping up your TV advertising, in partnership with Digital ad solutions, to help ensure victory. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and
native) ad solutions, Sinclair Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is -- winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673 **

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