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By Theodoric Meyer | 10/11/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With help from Maggie Severns and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WATCHING AND WAITING - "Republicans fret down-ballot wave," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Congressional Republicans know the collateral damage from Donald Trump's latest scandal will be bad. They just don't know how bad yet, and GOP leaders are preaching caution until they can figure it out - even as the first live-caller national poll since Friday showed a potential wave forming for Democrats. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted over the weekend ... showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 46 percent to 35 percent in a four-way race and Democrats with their largest lead in the congressional ballot - 49 percent versus 42 percent who said they would support Republicans for Congress -
since during the 2013 government shutdown. ... Republican strategists warned Monday that they still need more time to get a full picture of how much damage the Trump tape does to their hopes of protecting Senate and House majorities. A half-dozen pollsters from both parties working on House races say that they don't expect useful internal polling data to come in until mid-week at the earliest."

- "One top Republican Senate strategist compared the party's situation with the scene in the movie "Apollo 13" in which poisonous carbon dioxide slowly starts to fill the cabin, and a group of NASA employees on the ground puzzles through every item and spare part the stranded astronauts have on board, in an effort to construct a device that would keep them alive." Full story.

- "Inside Ryan's decision to (almost) dump Trump," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan: "Paul Ryan may not be done yet. As thoroughly as the House speaker shocked the national political establishment Monday by saying he's done with Donald Trump and it's time to focus on his House majority, there's a distinct possibility Ryan will go a step further and completely yank his endorsement, sources close to him told POLITICO. In fact, Ryan has personally been on the edge of pulling the plug but has held out because his decision is about more than just his personal feelings: It's about saving his massive 60-seat majority. ... Many of his closest allies say left to his own devices, he'd
dump Trump." Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - Congressional Leadership Fund launches House ad blitz: Congressional Leadership Fund, the flagship Republican super PAC in House races, is hitting the airwaves in a big way, debuting TV ads in seven new battleground districts: CA-07, where the super PAC is spending $1.2 million in total; MN-08, where the super PAC is spending $1.9 million; NV-03, where the super PAC is spending $2.5 million; NY-01, where the super PAC is spending $900,000; NY-24, where the super PAC is spending $800,000; TX-23, where the super PAC is spending $2 million and VA-10, where the super PAC is spending $1.5 million. Watch the CA-07 ad here. Watch the MN-08 ad here. Watch the NV-03 ad here. Watch
the NY-01 ad here. Watch the NY-24 ad here. Watch the TX-23 ad here. Watch the VA-10 ad here.

- Congressional Leadership Fund is also shelling out on canvassing in eight House districts in states that aren't presidential or Senate battlegrounds, with the intention of giving GOP candidates there a leg up. The districts: CA-07, CA-25, MN-03, MN-08, NY-01, NY-19, NY-23 and NY-24. Of those districts, NY-23 stands out. The upstate New York district, held by GOP Rep. Tom Reed, has seen little outside spending on either side. But the super PAC is spending about $300,000 on canvassing there. You can see one of the door knockers they're distributing here.

DEBATE NIGHT - McCain and Kirkpatrick clash on Clinton and Trump: GOP Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick debated on Monday night, barely 48 hours after McCain said he would not vote for Donald Trump. They clashed over immigration, Obamacare and the continued American presence in Iraq - but some of the sharpest exchanges were on Trump and Hillary Clinton. "I wonder, since I have renounced my support, when Congresswoman Kirkpatrick is going to renounce her support for Hillary Clinton," McCain said. Kirkpatrick said she would not be abandoning Clinton - and even McCain seemed to acknowledge that Clinton would win. Asked whether he trusted Trump with nuclear
weapons, McCain replied, "I do not see a scenario where [Trump's] finger would be on the button." He also hinted that voters should support him as a check on Clinton. "The worst thing in my view is a Hillary Clinton presidency and majority of Democrats in the Senate," McCain said.

- McCain and Kirkpatrick are both out with new TV ads today, too. McCain's ad, a positive spot, highlights his work to help one veteran cut through the VA's red tape. Kirkpatrick's ad attacks McCain for waiting too long to disavow Trump. "It's only because his election is in jeopardy," the ad's narrator says. "That's not courage, and it's too late." Watch the McCain ad here. Watch the Kirkpatrick ad here.

Days until the 2016 election: 28.

Days until the third presidential debate: 8.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally enjoy The Onion's political coverage, too: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

SECRET MEETINGS - Bayh campaign misled reporters on private equity meetings, The Indianapolis Star's Tony Cook and Chelsea Schneider report: "Evan Bayh met several times with executives from a future employer during his final months in the U.S. Senate - a direct contradiction of what his campaign has said in recent weeks. Bayh landed a lucrative job with private equity giant Apollo Global Management shortly after leaving office in January 2011. ... The timing of the new job prompted IndyStar to ask Bayh's campaign about a half dozen taxpayer-funded trips Bayh took to New York City during the last half of 2010. ... In response to IndyStar's inquiries, the campaign said in early September
that Bayh didn't meet with anyone from Apollo during those trips. ... The Associated Press reported Saturday that Bayh stayed overnight three times at one Apollo executive's New York City residence, and met twice with the company's chief executive, Leon Black. The report was based on Bayh's previously unreleased 2010 schedule." Full story.

GETTING THE NOD - Meg Whitman has endorsed Gottheimer in NJ-05, The Wall Street Journal's Kate King reports: Meg Whitman, the prominent GOP donor who endorsed Hillary Clinton in August, is backing another Democrat: Josh Gottheimer, who's running against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett for a Republican-leaning swing seat in the New Jersey suburbs. Whitman called Garrett a "Republican extremist." "We need reasonable people from all sides to reassert leadership and work together on the country's biggest challenges," Whitman told The Journal. "I have no doubt that Josh will play a role in unlocking the gridlock in Washington." Full story.

FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC ties McGinty to Obama: Senate Majority PAC is airing a new radio ad in Pennsylvania - part of a $400,000 buy - that boasts of President Barack Obama's support for Democrat Katie McGinty. "President Obama knows now we must protect his legacy," the ad's narrator says. "That's why he's backing Katie McGinty for U.S. Senate." Listen here.

- Senate Leadership Fund is out with a new ad in the race, too. "How do you cash in on corruption?" the narrator in a new TV ad asks. "Millionaire Katie McGinty's favorite company received millions, supposedly to create jobs. At least one person got a job - millionaire Katie McGinty went on the board of directors of the company's largest shareholder. McGinty got paid, but Pennsylvania workers got laid off." Watch the ad here.

NEW THIS MORNING - Republicans attack Duckworth on V.A. in new TV ad: A new TV ad running as part of a coordinated NRSC ad buy in Illinois features former Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs employees talking about Democrat Tammy Duckworth's management of the agency. "I'm yelling and screaming, 'Our veterans are being harmed,'" says a social worker at one V.A. hospital in Illinois. "Veterans dying, but Duckworth said nothing could be done," the ad's narrator says. Watch the ad here.

NEW THIS MORNING - Bonoff criticizes Paulsen for not disavowing Trump earlier in new ad: GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen announced on Saturday that he won't vote for Donald Trump. Now, Democrat Terri Bonoff is going after him in a new TV ad for failing to disavow Donald Trump earlier, in a preview of the kind of ads other Republicans who rejected Trump over the weekend can expect. "For over a year, Erik Paulsen refused to disavow Donald Trump, despite learning months ago that Donald Trump spoke of women in ways that should never be repeated," Bonoff says, looking at the camera. "Then, his ridiculing the disabled and later mocking veterans and the families of fallen soldiers. Through it all, Erik
Paulsen refused to disavow Donald Trump - until it threatened his own campaign." House Majority PAC has pulled back advertising in the district, but the DCCC has continued to attack Paulsen as well. Watch the ad here.

- IN CASE YOU MISSED IT - Here's our Monday ad roundup, compiled by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard. More and more House Democrats are cutting ads about Trump, including Wisconsin's Tom Nelson, whose latest ad uses the now-infamous tape of Trump's comments about women from 2005.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump, unbound," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols and Glenn Thrush: "Democrats get a kick out of saying that Donald Trump is 'unhinged,' but the candidate views himself as finally being unchained. It may seem odd that a 6'2" id in a red power tie would feel like his biggest problem was some infringement on his freedom to express his innermost thoughts, but people close to the flailing GOP nominee say he's viewed the staggering setbacks over the last four days as license to loosen up, be himself, and wage a personal war against the unified forces of the liberal media and dying GOP establishment." Full story.

- "Priebus promises the RNC still stands with Trump," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, Kyle Cheney and Shane Goldmacher: "With Donald Trump's campaign in a historic free-fall, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus declared Monday that the party is standing behind its presidential nominee. 'First of all, I want to make it very clear that the RNC is in full coordination with the Trump campaign, and we have a great relationship with them. If there's any takeaway from this call, that's the takeaway,' Priebus told RNC members during an emergency conference call, which POLITICO obtained a recording of." Full story.

- "Clinton team projects open confidence," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: In Columbus, Ohio, on Monday night, Hillary "Clinton drew a crowd that the Secret Service pinned at 18,500 - by far the biggest of her entire 18-month campaign, and in a state some Democrats had written off this time last week. It was the peak of a re-energized Clinton campaign offensive, coming on a Monday in which its private confidence ahead of the debate surged into the public eye - not just because of the Trump tape and ensuing debate, but because 17 states will have begun early voting by Wednesday, because public polling was trending in Clinton's direction in Trump must-wins like Pennsylvania, Florida, and
Ohio even before the tape dropped, and because the candidate is now traveling to hammer home the voter-registration message ahead of local deadlines in Michigan, Ohio and Florida." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There's a consensus, even among supporters, that the likelihood of something else breaking in a very embarrassing and negative fashion is certainly better than 50-50." - Rep. Scott Rigell (R-Va.), who's expecting more damaging Donald Trump disclosures before Election Day, The New York Times reports.

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