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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


SENATE EXCLUSIVE - WILD, WIILD MIDWEST - Three Midwestern Democratic Senate hopefuls - Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold - are launching sharp contrast ads today as they attempt to make up ground against Republican opponents who have seized the electoral advantage. In Indiana, Ellsworth is going back up on the air after an extended dark period, branding former Sen. Dan Coats as a "lobbyist who sold out Indiana to line his pockets" and attacking him for making "millions as a Washington lobbyist while his firm was helping corporations ship jobs overseas." In Missouri, Carnahan is targeting Rep. Roy Blunt with her most aggressive hit to date, effectively accusing Blunt of selling earmarks in exchange for campaign contributions. "A California company gets a million-dollar congressional earmark. Eight days later, Roy Blunt gets $13,000 from company executives, even though they've never given to him before," the ad recounts. And in Wisconsin, Feingold has a snappy, football-themed ad, showing the Democrat walking on the gridiron and accusing Republicans of "excessive celebration" because "they think they're going to take down the U.S. senator who's been named the No. 1 enemy of Washington lobbyists." Each of these Democrats is in a different electoral position, but all of them need to move the numbers in their races sooner rather than later. Here's Ellsworth's spot http://bit.ly/cVDMrc and Carnahan's http://bit.ly/bOYSIE and Feingold's http://bit.ly/bk5DVy


AND - FROM THE RIGHT: West Virginia Senate candidate John Raese will keep pummeling Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin on the air today, with a commercial using Manchin's own words on energy policy against him. "Obama said he wants to tax coal even to bankruptcy," the narrator says. "So listen to Obama's rubber stamp Joe Manchin, he's for it too." The commercial shows a clip of Manchin arguing in a TV appearance: "They're going to have to pay for the carbons whether a cap and trade or whether it's in a carbon tax." The ad, which continues Raese's strategy of making Manchin campaign with Obama as his running mate, ends with the kicker: "It's time we say no to 'Rubber Stamp Joe.'" Watch it here. http://bit.ly/aqhAMa


As Tim Cahill takes the safety off, Jack Markell plans a really big show and Christine O'Donnell finds her inner you, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.


GOV RACE EXCLUSIVE - FIRST CRIST, THEN CAHILL, THEN ... The Democratic Governors Association wants to make former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee the next independent candidate to collapse from the strain of his political balancing act, going up with a statewide saturation buy aimed at Chafee's tax policies. "Have you taken a close look at Lincoln Chafee's plan to increase the sales tax?" the ad asks, as a list of products the tax would affect scrolls on screen. "Chafee would raise taxes on clothes, groceries, medicine, gas, heating for your home - even on textbooks and school lunches." Other items listed include newspapers, medical equipment, nursing home fees and - wait for it - coffins.


MORE - THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHESS: But this is Democratic Rhode Island, where Chafee's pulling support from moderate Democrat Frank Caprio's left side, so the DGA's spot ends with a compassion-heavy pitch. "Some Rhode Islanders can afford Lincoln Chafee's new tax, but there are too many more who can't," the ad warns, as images of an African-American man, and then a white woman and her young son, appear on screen. "If you care about those who are struggling, Lincoln Chafee's tax plan is wrong for you." Watch the spot here http://bit.ly/aNwNWj and see the Dems' Rhode Island attack site here: http://bit.ly/cm8U7V


ALSO SPOTTED: Former Houston Mayor Bill White, flush with $4.7 million from the last fundraising period, is slamming Texas Gov. Rick Perry in response to a recent attack ad from the Republican. "Bill White never profited off a hurricane," the ad says, responding to Perry's charges and firing back: "Rick Perry has become a millionaire on the public payroll ... taking a government check for 25 years." http://bit.ly/dpe8oZ


LAST NIGHT - "Blumenthal, McMahon Spar In Televised Debate" - From the Hartford Courant's Daniela Altimari: "Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda McMahon tangled over the healthcare overhaul, jobs and the economy in tonight's high-stakes U.S. Senate debate. Neither candidate committed any major gaffes. Blumenthal once again apologized for misstating his military record and McMahon acknowledging that World Wrestling Entertainment had hired D.C. lobbyists. But there was scant mention of steroids, 'Girls Gone Wild' or any of the other controversies surrounding WWE. ... There was a peculiar moment near the end of the debate when both candidates were asked to say one word about the man they each want to replace, Sen. Christopher Dodd. 'Not running,' was Blumenthal's response. 'Retiring,' said McMahon." http://bit.ly/aiqTQu The part Dems love: http://bit.ly/alHYzV


BUT WAIT - WHERE'S THE FIRE? Two polls released Monday placed Blumenthal's lead well above the three points Quinnipiac showed last week: A CT Capitol report survey put him eight points ahead of McMahon, while PPP pegged that lead at 12 points and put McMahon's favorability rating 14 points in the red. In both surveys, Blumenthal was over 50 percent. McMahon's a major pain for national Democrats, but is she getting it done in-state? http://bit.ly/aiTFyt and http://bit.ly/dmNewK


TO BE SURE ... Those numbers came before McMahon pulled the pin on this hand grenade: http://bit.ly/ajjnGp


POPPING TODAY - O'DONNELL'S NEW PITCH: Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell is going up on television today with a general-election ad that delivers a simple message: "I'm you." The spot, O'Donnell's first since signing up the Fred Davis-led firm Strategic Perception, shows the candidate speaking into the camera, clad in dark blue and standing against a dark blue background, and explaining with a smile: "I'm not a witch. I'm nothing you've heard." The commercial is smoother and more polished than O'Donnell's primary ads, which also cast her as an American everywoman - "working-class Christine O'Donnell." Watch the new spot here. http://bit.ly/cj345g


TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to St. Paul, Minnesota. At 10:30 AM, the Vice President will deliver remarks at a rally for Gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton. ... At 12:15 PM, the Vice President will attend an event for Mark Dayton."AND - MARKELL'S MESSAGE - The Delaware governor and DGA chairman has a major speech planned today at the National Press Club, where he'll tell his audience: "Make no mistake about it, the DGA is on offense, and we plan to win." More from his prepared remarks: "Yes, there's a lot of anger in this country. I know, because I'm angry, too. But we have not-and will not-channel that anger into apathy and despair. ... Republicans are counting on the electorate being blindingly hostile. They are hoping that a frustrated electorate provides only downside for Democrats, and they are banking on it. But voters aren't looking to punish a party. They are looking for results, and I am confident that voters will gravitate toward the governors who have produced results, and the candidates who offer plans that will do the same."


POLL OF THE DAY - AS IOWA GOES: A pivotal state election for the Iowa Supreme Court has voters closely divided on whether to boot out judges who ruled in favor of same-sex marriage, according to the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll. The paper explains: "Forty-four percent of Iowans who plan to cast a ballot in the retention election say they will vote 'yes' to all three justices. Forty percent will vote to remove all three, and 16 percent say they want to retain some. More than one-fourth of all likely voters are either undecided or plan to leave the retention boxes blank, according to the poll. ... 'This is very tricky to interpret,' said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll. 'I think it suggests that some justices, and perhaps all, will be removed. It lines up along Democrat and Republican lines pretty easily, except for low-income voters, which is typically a Democratic constituency.'" http://bit.ly/9vU545


HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE I - Former Missouri state Rep. Vicky Hartzler is pushing back hard on Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton's criticism of her record on military issues, airing a radio ad that features the former commander at Fort Leonard Wood calling Skelton a liar. "It's my sad duty to report that our congressman, Ike Skelton, is lying to us and he knows it," Col. Dick Hobbs (ret.) says. "Vicky's record was outstanding in support of the Guard, the reserves, active-duty service members, veterans and their families. Her record as a private citizen is just as strong." Another veteran, from the Missouri Army National Guard, closes the spot: "I don't know why he's lying about Vicky Hartzler, but Mr. Skelton, that dog won't hunt." Listen to it here. http://bit.ly/cgtqwd


HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE II - OUTSIDE, AT RECESS: Keith Rothfus, the insurgent GOP nominee challenging Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire, is going to the schoolyard for his latest campaign imagery. In a new ad targeting Altmire on the issue of spending, Rothfus's campaign shows a series of school kids complaining that Altmire's overstressing their allowances: "Jason Altmire must think I'm made of money. ... Who's going to pay for all his spending? ... My allowance can't cover that!" Rothfus, who defeated former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan in the Republican primary, is the underdog against Altmire, but will benefit from the district's strong GOP lean. Watch his ad here. http://bit.ly/ciftLx


FUNDRAISING TICKER: New York Rep. Scott Murphy pulled in $900,000 last quarter ... Republican Pat Meehan announced $725,000 raised in his bid for Joe Sestak's open seat ... Martin Heinrich challenger Jon Barela raised $456,000 ... Louisiana Sen. David Vitter took in $1.2 million and had $4.4 million on hand ... So much more to come ...


HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT - TAKE OUT THE FORK: Louisiana state Rep. Cedric Richmond is close to putting away freshman GOP Rep. Joseph Cao, according to a PPP poll of Cao's New Orleans-based district. Richmond is close to 50 percent and has an 11-point lead, topping Cao 49 percent to 38 percent. That's despite Cao's net favorability rating of 21 percent in the positive direction. http://bit.ly/aK69nC


COMING SOON: Tennessee Rep. Lincoln Davis is getting a fundraising boost from Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, a DNC vice chairwoman whom the NRCC plans to make a campaign issue. "Lincoln Davis might as well be bringing in the president, who sports a 70% disapproval rating in his district. Rep. Wasserman-Schultz is a bomb-throwing liberal partisan," an NRCC source said. "We'll be asking Davis how he squares his reliance on her fundraising assistance with the 'independent conservative' moniker he's bestowed upon himself in recent ads."


NO FURY LIKE A CAHILL SCORNED - Massachusetts Treasurer Tim Cahill, reeling from his running mate's decision to quit their independent gubernatorial campaign last Friday, may pull the trigger on hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative ads against Republican Charlie Baker. The Boston Herald scoops: "Cahill is preparing to unleash a $1 million television ad blitz this week - possibly putting Republican Charlie Baker in the crosshairs of the candidate's first negative spots of the campaign, the Herald has learned. Cahill had refused to run negative ads, but the stunning switch of his lieutenant governor candidate Paul Loscocco to the Republican's camp forced Cahill strategists to reconsider, said campaign manager Scott Campbell. 'The landscape has changed, so we're not ruling anything out,' Campbell said." http://bit.ly/c7uakS


CHICAGO WATCH - SHOTS FIRED - Joe Trippi, aligned with Cook County Sheriff in the mayor's race, lobbed this one at former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel over Twitter: "Guess Rahm's 'tell it like it is' tour doesn't tell it like it is. 'It's good to be home' video shot in wrong city http://twitpic.com/2up1xj "


GETTING LESS FUNNY: Supporters of New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino have posted a website targeting the New York Post's Fred Dicker, with whom Paladino had a heated altercation last week. Liz Benjamin reports: "The site includes a considerable amount of personal contact information for Dicker, including his home and personal e-mail addresses, and urges viewers to "visit" him. YNN got word yesterday that Paladino supporters would be protesting outside Dicker's house, but I'm told only a handful of people actually showed up. ... I asked Paladino campaign manager Michael Caputo if he or the campaign had anything to do with this site, and was told (via e-mail): 'No. Tea Party folks I'm guessing.' But it's awfully reminiscent of the anti-Spitzer cyber-campaign that Caputo ran in the wake of the Troopergate scandal back in 2007." http://bit.ly/b31Ci6


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He uses these idiot boards to read speeches in television and I think he loses the connection that he needs emotionally with American voters." - Former Vice President Walter Mondale, critiquing the president on CNN's The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer http://bit.ly/bpbTCy

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