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Eric D. Schwerin
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com

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Begin forwarded message:

> From: Denver Peacock <Denver.Peacock@cjrw.com>
> Date: October 3, 2010 9:44:12 PM EDT
> To: Eric Schwerin <eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com>
> Cc: Nelson Peacock <nelsonpeacock@gmail.com>
> Subject: AP: Republicans Eye Potential Gains in Democratic Ark.
>

> Eric: Dad and I were talking to Hunter about this trend last night... Will
> you forward to him? Great to see you this weekend. Sorry about the Eagles
> today. Not looking good... Dp
>
>
>
>
> Republicans Eye Potential Gains in Democratic Ark.
>
> October 1, 2010
> THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
>
> LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — The sagging fortunes of major Democratic campaigns
> in Arkansas — highlighted by Sen. Blanche Lincoln's uphill struggle to save
> her job — are raising concerns among Democrats that the party may be in for
> more than just short-term losses here this year. They fear that Arkansas may
> be on the brink of joining the tier of southern states that are now solidly
> Republican.
>
> Alone in the region, Arkansas has remained a reliably blue state over the
> years. Only three Republicans have occupied the governor's office and only
> one has served as a U.S. senator since Reconstruction. But President Barack
> Obama's deep unpopularity in the state and the sour national mood toward
> those in power has badly hampered Democratic candidates in the midterm
> election.
>
> Public and private polls show Lincoln trailing U.S. Rep. John Boozman in her
> re-election bid, and polls suggest Republicans could win three of the
> state's four congressional seats in November.
>
> Those races and the state's demographics — overwhelmingly white,
> conservative and churchgoing, like the GOP electorate nationally — could
> nudge Arkansas toward the transition that transformed the historically
> Democratic South into a Republican stronghold.
>
>
> Already, the fastest growing parts of the state — the northwest, home to
> many retirees, and suburban Little Rock — are trending Republican.
>
> "There's a lot of concern about it," said Debbie Willhite, a Democratic
> political consultant in Little Rock, referring to a possible Democratic
> decline. "I think there's some real areas of the state that Democrats have
> to be concerned about."
>
> Said Jay Barth, a Hendrix College political science professor who ran
> unsuccessfully earlier this year as a Democrat for the Legislature, "The
> Republicans have never had an opportunity like this."
>
> A red-state drift by Arkansas would be a serious blow to the Democratic
> Party. Its strategy for becoming the majority party is based on expanding in
> southern border states, and the party has made some gains in Virginia and
> North Carolina. The loss of Arkansas would be a step back toward being
> hemmed in on the east and west coasts.
>
> The possibilities excite Republican leaders.
>
> "Conservative Arkansans realize that the Republican Party reflects their
> values up and down the ticket," said Doyle Webb, chairman of the Republican
> Party of Arkansas, who says he believes the state is "in a period of
> realignment politically."
>
> After years of dominance only in northwest Arkansas, the GOP is now running
> competitive legislative races in one-time Democratic strongholds in central
> Arkansas. In the 2008 presidential election, Republican John McCain won the
> state's six electoral votes.
>
> But there are reasons the shift might not happen, or might be limited. The
> state's Democratic governor, Mike Beebe, and many state Democratic
> officeholders have separated themselves from the party's national brand and
> remain politically strong. Democrats also have a deeper organizational and
> fundraising system in Arkansas.
>
> Arkansas was only one of many Democratic states in the South, but remained
> behind when the rest moved right in the 1970s with Richard Nixon's southern
> strategy, in the 1980s with Reaganism and in the 1994 midterm election with
> the Republican "Contract with America." Its small African-American
> population, only 16 percent, and the lack of an expanding urban middle class
> made it more difficult to take advantage of racial or urban-rural divides.
>
> "Arkansas has been rather isolated from the main developments of Southern
> politics for the last 15 or 20 years," said Merle Black, an Emory University
> professor in Atlanta who has written extensively on the Republican rise in
> the South.
>
> Popular Democratic politicians such as Bill Clinton, Dale Bumpers and David
> Pryor used a populist appeal to emphasize working-class Arkansans rather
> than national politics.
>
> Now the winds are shifting. The Republican party is attracting more
> churchgoers, and nearly two-thirds of Arkansans identify themselves as
> evangelical Christians. A growing number of independent voters in Arkansas
> are siding with the Republican Party.
>
> Webb and the state GOP are pinning their hopes this year on tying as many
> Democrats — even those in state-level races — to Obama and his health care
> and stimulus policies, which many conservative voters consider fiscally
> irresponsible in a time of hardship.
>
> Lincoln is trying to fight back. In one TV ad on health care reform, she
> said, "Some of you are angry that it went too far. Others say it didn't go
> far enough. After years of health insurance horror stories, it was clear we
> needed reform, but a government-run program wasn't right for Arkansas, and I
> made sure we stopped that."
>
> To take advantage of the changed environment, Republicans opened nine field
> offices around the state to host phone banks and coordinate with local
> candidates.
>
> Republican prospects were enhanced by the retirements of Democratic U.S.
> Reps. Marion Berry and Vic Snyder, and with the decline in Lincoln's
> approval ratings. Boozman's decision to run for the Senate created three
> open congressional seats. Republicans Rick Crawford and Tim Griffin are well
> positioned in their races, and Steve Womack is heavily favored. Democratic
> U.S. Rep. Mike Ross is favored in his re-election bid.
>
> Former President Clinton, who has been campaigning for Democratic candidates
> in the state, insists the Democrats can make a stand. "It's a little state
> and there's a lot of personal contact," Clinton told reporters. "That's one
> of the great joys of living here, that we can still communicate with each
> other in a fairly short amount of time."
>
>
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