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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE - FOR THE KNOCKOUT: The NRCC is dropping a new independent expenditure ad in North Dakota today, tarring Rep. Earl Pomeroy as both a tool of the Obama administration and a servant of special interests. The spot opens with a clip from one of Pomeroy's spots, linking Republican challenger Rick Berg to insurance companies. "Hold it. Earl Pomeroy is attacking Rick Berg on the insurance industry? The nerve," the NRCC ad fires back. "Pomeroy took more insurance money in this election than any congressman in America ... Pomeroy's on the take from hospitals and drug companies, too. They pushed Obama's health care reform and Pomeroy gave them his vote. He's not our congressman anymore." Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/dAgwlE


POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - SCHRIOCK BRINGS THE HEAT: EMILY's List president Stephanie Schriock will go after House Minority Leader John Boehner in a speech to the Women's National Democratic Club this afternoon, warning that the number of women in Congress could drop this year and empower "a party that believes that women belong in the kitchen." "This year may be the first year in 30 years that the number of women in Congress decreases. And the possible result could be truly devastating: Speaker John Boehner," Schriock will say. "It's not John Boehner, but the extreme Republican majority he would lead. Republican members with positions so extreme, they would have been disqualified twenty years ago. ... This is the party that earlier this year sent out a mailer asking folks to take Congresswoman Betty Sutton out of congress and 'send her back to the kitchen!" MORE: "John Boehner can only take the speaker's gavel from Nancy Pelosi, by defeating the Democratic women you and I have worked so hard to elect. And by discouraging women voters so much that they stay home on November 2nd."


SCORE EXCLUSIVE - MARTINEZ'S MAGIC NUMBER: Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez has crossed the 50-percent mark in the New Mexico governor's race, according to a poll conducted for her campaign by the firm Public Opinion Strategies. The survey, which tested 900 likely voters between Oct. 3 and 5, showed Martinez leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish by a nine-point margin, 51 percent to 42 percent. Two key points: "Martinez continues to keep the race close among Hispanic voters, trailing by only a 42%-48% margin. ... Denish is having difficulty securing her own base, with Martinez polling 44% of soft Democrats." The numbers are close to an Albuquerque Journal poll that had Martinez leading by seven points, but clash with a Denish campaign poll this week that put the race within the margin of error. http://politi.co/9Wz2lL


As Bill Clinton heads to Kentucky, Joe Miller takes another shot and Arlen Specter gets over it, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.


LAST NIGHT - RUMBLE IN FLORIDA - The St. Petersburg Times picks a winner from the three-way Senate debate: "The surprise of the night was Meek, the Democrat trailing in the polls, money and enthusiasm. Meek was strong throughout the hour, landing some of the best lines - 'Charlie Crist stands on a wet paper box ... because you don't know where he is.' -- and scrambling the dynamic for Rubio, who could previously count on Meek to primarily focus on Crist. Meek forcefully defended the stimulus and the health care plan and blasted Rubio as trying to undo the good he says has come from the landmark legislation. Confronting doubters within his own party, he declared, 'This race is far from over.' ... In all, it boiled down to two against one. Rubio was battered but held his own." Meek takes a victory lap on Fox & Friends at 8:15 a.m. , and adviser Adam Sharon e-mails Score: "Floridians are looking for the Democrat to stand up to the conservative right....Kendrick Meek stood up. Someone was needed to take the fight to the Tea Party Right and Marco Rubio. And Kendrick is that man." http://bit.ly/aD2mIi


WHY RUBIO'S STILL IN COMMAND - The Republican nominee raised $5 million in the last quarter, his campaign announced yesterday, and Rubio had $5.5 million in the bank for the final weeks of that campaign. That's a ridiculous fundraising performance, and if one of Rubio's two opponents can compete in cash on hand it's more likely to be Crist.


** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org today.


TODAY - From the White House guidance: "The President will travel to Bowie, Maryland to attend an event for Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley at Bowie State University. ... In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at an event for Alexi Giannoulias at the Drake Hotel. ... Later, the President will attend a dinner event for Alexi Giannoulias at a private residence in Chicago, Illinois. And for the VP: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to Madison, Wisconsin. At 10:00 AM CDT, the Vice President will attend an event for Gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett. In the afternoon, the Vice President will travel to Springfield, Missouri. At 5:15 PM CDT, the Vice President will attend an event for Senatorial candidate Robin Carnahan."


ONE EXPENSIVE LESSON: The National Education Association will spend $15 million on the midterm elections, with the goal of "electing champions to Capitol Hill who will keep fighting for public education," NEA campaigns and elections director Karen White announced Wednesday. The powerful teachers' union has already launched two television ads on the House level - for Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell, a former teacher, and Ohio Rep. Betty Sutton - and sent 75,000 mailers into North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell's district. The choice, as White framed it: "Are we going to continue to head in the right direction ...or are we going to vote in people who want to dramatically slash education funding and give tax breaks to millionaires and companies that ship our jobs overseas?" Watch the NEA ads here. http://bit.ly/9MmLdc


DEMS ESCALATE VS. CHAMBER - Democrats are increasingly taking aim at the powerful business lobby and attempting to make the accusation that the Chamber is funded with foreign money a problem for Republican candidates. Minnesota Sen. Al Franken has asked the FEC for an investigation. Ohio Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy is holding an event today with California Rep. Xavier Becerra and AFL-CIO members to denounce the Chamber in the same terms. There's a good reason for this offensive: The Chamber has already reserved some $4.6 million in air time for GOP House candidates between Sept. 28 and Oct. 25, according to information shared with POLITICO. Chamber official Tita Freeman pushed back hard on the Think Progress-driven attacks in a statement to Greg Sargent: "These accusations by a George Soros-funded, anti-business blog (not a 'report,' as some in the media are saying) are unfounded, deceitful, and completely erroneous." http://politi.co/bOEjkH and http://wapo.st/9PPTsQ


CAMPAIGN CLICKS: The Missouri Republican Party plans to release a video today renewing the GOP's attack on Robin Carnahan for supporting the stimulus - and hitting her for the financial support her brother's company received through the program. Why it's timely: Carnahan surrogate Joe Biden plays a starring role, in clips urging voters to, "as they say, connect the dots." http://bit.ly/bpK2ve ... Former New Mexico Rep. Steve Pearce will play up inconsistencies in Democratic Rep. Harry Teague's personal finances, parrying Teague's statement that "for the last 21 months, I haven't accepted a penny from our company," with an animated tour of Teague's congressional disclosure form http://bit.ly/deJY0c 2016 SIREN - "Forget VP: Clinton world eyes 2016" - POLITICO's Smith and Haberman: "The new round of speculation that Hillary Clinton could replace Joe Biden as President Barack Obama's running mate in 2012 misses the point. Clinton doesn't want to be vice president. ...Clinton's political team, many of them still in exile from the Obama White House, whether in the private sector or in other government posts, remains on standby. ... Their relevance depends, to a degree, on hers. One, Ann Lewis, maintains an organization based on Clinton's massive email list. It's called NoLimits.org. Another, pollster Mark Penn, conducted a public survey for The Hill this week that included a pot-stirring match-up of Clinton and Obama in 2012. ... It is from this group that Woodward presumably picked up suggestions that Clinton is interested in the 2012 ticket - and that Obama might consider putting her on it. But there is no evidence that Clinton has talked about it. In fact, just the opposite, according to some in her orbit. 'Not happening,' said one of her 2008 campaign's topmost figures. 'Stay tuned for 2016.'" http://politi.co/cfipFe


POLL OF THE DAY - MURPHY SINKING? Just when things were looking good for Connecticut Democrats - Richard Blumenthal was widening his lead in the Senate race and Dan Malloy was establishing himself as the frontrunner for governor - Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy has popped up as a possible victim of the 2010 climate. A poll taken for CT Capitol Report shows Murphy five points down to Republican state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Pollster Matthew Fitch analyzes: "The fifth district is shaping up to be the most Republican leaning district in Connecticut this year. It is the strongest district for both Tom Foley and Linda McMahon and is also the district least likely to have a positive opinion of President Obama. ... Murphy certainly knows how to win this district, but the national mood and the top of the ticket may be too much to overcome." http://bit.ly/bG1OlX


YOUR WEEKLY DOSE OF CNN: The latest Opinion Research poll taken for CNN and Time magazine are out ... Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is back two points to Republican challenger Sharron Angle, who leads 42 percent to 40 percent ... One in 10 Nevada voters said they'd vote for "None of the above" ... Richard Blumenthal is 13 points ahead of Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race ... Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt leads Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan, 53 percent to 40 percent ... Democrats lead both New York Senate races and the gov races in Connecticut and New York, while Republican Brian Sandoval is way ahead in Nevada ... Full results here http://bit.ly/9buHkn


NO. 1 FAN: Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, way down in the polls but with plenty of money left in the bank, is continuing to lean on former President Bill Clinton for support in her latest television ad. The commercial shows a clip of Clinton speaking at a rally for Lincoln, telling voters: "Now, Blanche's opponent is not saying much now, have you noticed that?" An image of Rep. John Boozman appears on screen as Clinton explains: "It's 'cause he's depending on you to be mad, so he hopes that you will forget that he voted for a Republican budget to privatize Medicare." Clinton's last-minute campaign swing for Lincoln likely saved her in the Democratic primary; rescuing her now is an even taller order. http://bit.ly/bzdusA


AND - SAVE THE DATE - Clinton will campaign in Kentucky on Monday for Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports. "Clinton's appearance in the state would be designed to help offset an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. Polls have consistently shown that more Republicans than Democrats say they are likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election. ... Paul's campaign manager, Jesse Benton, said in an e-mail, 'Jack Conway is welcome to bring in all of the out-state liberals he wants. We hope he has (U.S. Rep.) Charlie Rangel campaign for him again like he did in 2002. And of course, our offer to pay for President Obama's plane ticket still stands.'" http://bit.ly/cwfL7D


2012 TALKER - CLEANUP IN WASILLA: In a statement to the Weekly Standard, Todd Palin shot back at an Alaska blog that revealed e-mails between him and Joe Miller, in which Palin complained about Miller's less than full-throated endorsement of Sarah Palin's presidential qualifications. "Joe hadn't said anything like what I'd been told," the former first dude wrote. "So there's no story here except the fact that the press put our personal emails online again, and again couldn't even be bothered to conceal our email addresses or take any steps to protect our privacy." http://bit.ly/aWJgZ6


AND THE PUNCH LINE - Watch Miller try answering the very same question - about Palin's qualifications - in an interview yesterday with Megyn Kelly (Preview: "It sounds like you're not really going to say yes or no.") http://bit.ly/cAmUFU


HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT - NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Keating took donation from lawyer of Mass. man charged by him in Quincy shooting" - From the AP: "Norfolk District Attorney William Keating accepted campaign donations from a lawyer representing a man being prosecuted by Keating's office for attempting to gun down an off-duty firefighter last year. Keating, a Democrat running for Congress, received two donations from attorney John McGlone in August totaling $1,545, according to an Associated Press review of campaign records filed with the Federal Elections Commission." http://bit.ly/bavw0e


SAME DISTRICT - DIFFERENT BAD HEADLINE - "Accuracy Of Perry's Application To Be Lawyer Questioned - From WCVB Boston: "Team 5 Investigates has learned a former member of Mitt Romney's administration asked the Massachusetts Board of Bar Overseers to investigate inaccuracies in [GOP House candidate] Jeff Perry's application to be a lawyer." http://bit.ly/cjrVXU


TEAM PLAYER WATCH - KEYSTONE EDITION: Sen. Arlen Specter will appear at an event on Monday for Rep. Joe Sestak, the man who defeated him in the Democratic Senate primary. Sen. Bob Casey and New York Sen. Chuck Schumer will also be at the event, and the Philadelphia Jewish Voice writes: "Schumer and Specter will tout Sestak's strong support of Israel including a perfect voting record according to AIPAC during his two terms in Congress, and helping improve Israel's defense systems during his career in the United States Navy." http://bit.ly/bgy2tk


** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

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