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Base Politics
First Read: "Of course, it's a cliché that Republican presidents play to their base, while Democratic presidents often alienate it. But as our recent NBC/WSJ poll suggests, there's a reason why this happens: Only 21% identify themselves as liberal (either very liberal or somewhat liberal), compared with 37% who say they are conservative (very conservative or somewhat conservative); 40% say they're moderate. The dilemma for Democrats: To win national elections, they have to win a larger share of the moderate vote than Republicans do. And that's why Democratic presidents -- whether they're Bill Clinton or Barack Obama or the next one -- often disappoint their base. What's surprising here is that we haven't seen the liberal disappointment manifest itself more. At least so far... And part of the reason: The president has a problem with liberal ELITES, but not the liberal RANK-N-FILE. Just look at his numbers with base Democratic voters; they are essentially as strong as ever."


Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com
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