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Nothing new, but interesting points as it relates to your role with World
Food ProgramŠ

From: Pat Avery <pavery@prospectgri.com>
Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2011 19:24:10 -0400
To: "Barry Munitz (bmunitz@sbcglobal.net)" <bmunitz@sbcglobal.net>, Chad
Brownstein <chad@itu.com>, "'Greg Belzberg (GB@westminstercapital.com)'"
<GB@westminstercapital.com>, Steven Sugarman <sugarman@corfunds.com>,
"btcooney@gmail.com" <btcooney@gmail.com>, "Shane Hartnett
(shartnett@Avalon.com)" <shartnett@Avalon.com>, "Governor Gray Davis (Ret.)
(gdavis@loeb.com)" <gdavis@loeb.com>, "Andy Rapp
(andy.rapp@senergyadvisors.com)" <andy.rapp@senergyadvisors.com>, "John
Hemmingstad (jhemmingstad@Avalon.com)" <jhemmingstad@Avalon.com>, "Jonah
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Cc: Wayne Rich <WRich@ProspectGRI.com>, Jonathan Bloomfield
<JBloomfield@ProspectGRI.com>, "DeHerrera, Cristal (CDeherrera@BHFS.com)"
<CDeherrera@BHFS.com>, "Knetsch, Jeffrey M." <JKnetsch@BHFS.com>
Subject: 7 Billion and Agriculture

Most of you saw articles today, that the world hit 7 billion people. As
background:
Demographers say it took until 1804 for the world to reach its first billion
people, and a century more until it hit 2 billion in 1927. The twentieth
century, though, saw things begin to cascade: 3 billion in 1959; 4 billion
in 1974; 5 billion in 1987; 6 billion in 1998. The U.N. estimates the
world's population will reach 8 billion by 2025 and 10 billion by 2083. But
the numbers could vary widely, depending on everything from life expectancy
to access to birth control to infant mortality rates.
The UN, WHO and Scientific American wrote a summary of studies and issues.
In summary:
- The world uses 38% of our land mass for ag, one third in crops, two
thirds in pasture and range for animal grazing.
- We face three major, competitive problems 1. Ending world hunger 2.
Doubling food supply by 2050 3. Reduce the negative impacts of agriculture.
To do this they suggest 5 Solutions:
- Meet goals with the current amount of land. To reduce impacts in
diverse and wetland ecosystems, we must increase fertilization. While 1-2
billion people may have ag that approaches full fertilization of N
(nitrogen)-P (phosphate)-K (potassium/potash) 3-5 billion people do not.
They may be at 40-60% of best agriculture practices. With world trade of
potash at 60mm tons per year, this would mean another 30mm tons per year.
- Close world food gaps. Some counties eat 3000-4000 calories per
day, some eat 300-400. Reduce these disparities.
- Use resources more efficiently. This includes labor, fuel,
fertilizer, crop protection chemicals, and water. Particularly water.
- People should eat less meat. They do point out that 1-2 billion
people could reduce meat without negative dietary impacts, 3-5 billion need
to increase protein intact.
- Reduce food waste. While we think of restaurant and grocery waste,
the three D¹s of ag produce far more waste, Disease, Drought and Delay.
My take away, the world needs production agriculture, with full
fertilization to even approach meeting world needs. Let¹s always look for
good agriculture projects!


Pat Avery
600 17th St.,Ste 2800 South
Denver, CO 80202
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