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EconVue Spotlight March 14, 2018
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Image: To see the original, click here: http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01ee-1803/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct35_0/1?sid=TV2%3ApGQYvtSb9 Target URL: http://www.econvue.com EconVue Spotlight Dear R. Hunter, Trust is the common thread that runs through recent research at EconVue. Robert Pringle https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle discusses the lack of trust in our financial institutions, which was worsened by the Great Recession. Collin Canright https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright tracks the debate over alternative trustless financial systems such as bitcoin. Karim Pakravan https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan feels that the dollar is weak because of lack of trust in the US economy, and Marsha Vandenberg https://econvue.com/experts/marsha-vande-berg writes about consumers who are unable to trust technology companies to protect their children. David Johnson https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson envisions a merging of dental care and primary care, and a new platform for health care. Will we share our most personal information with the companies we work for as they create their own internal healthcare systems? Today nurses, doctors, and dentists are our most-trusted professionals. This could change under a new regime with different incentives. In this week's Spotlight, we feature a range of provocative opinions and analysis. The funniest interview by an economist I have ever read is Austan Goolsbee's home economics quiz on NPR. The deepest dive is Paul Robert's Pulitzer-worthy article in Politico on what happens when a town is taken over by bitcoin mining. The most iconoclastic analysis is by Derek Scissors who says that TPP and the recent steel and aluminum tariffs are inconsequential. He then warns that either NAFTA's failure, or US trade actions against Chinese technology companies, could be highly impactful. If both occur, the results could be devastating not just for North America or China, but for the global economy. RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS The Capture of Money - Why People do not Trust it https://econvue.com/pulse/capture-money-why-people-do-not-trust-it Robert Pringle https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle In the case of money, we hand over responsibility for it, i.e. for how it functions as a social institution, to governments and official guardians appointed by the state, i.e. central banks and regulators. Dollars and Deficits: A Vote of Non-Confidence https://econvue.com/pulse/dollars-and-deficits-vote-non-confidence Karim Pakravan https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan In the past few months, the stars seemed aligned for a stronger dollar: strong U.S economic growth and rising interest rate differentials between the dollar and other major currencies. Yet, we have witnessed the opposite: the dollar (as measured by the DXY, a weighted average of the dollar relative to the currencies of the U.S. main trading partners) has weakened significantly, falling by 13.3% in the year through early March, and losing 2.3% year-to-date. This vote of non-confidence comes from the confluence of several factors: bond markets concerns about an overheating U.S. economy and the surging twin deficits. FinTech Marketing https://econvue.com/pulse/fintech-marketing Collin Canright https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright International FinTech startups are looking to the United States as a vast consumer and business market for their applications and services. Despite the difficulties posed by a dual regulatory system, in which multiple federal regulators join agencies in all 50 states, the wealth and size of the market beckons. Platforming Healthcare: Owning Hospitals Is So 2015 https://econvue.com/pulse/platforming-healthcare-owning-hospitals-so-2015 David W. Johnson https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson The news that Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan Chase joined forces to create their own healthcare company rocked the industry. The ten largest health insurers and pharmacy businesses lost $30B in market value in two hours. Upsizing Dentistry: Putting More Bite into Primary Care https://econvue.com/pulse/upsizing-dentistry-putting-more-bite-primary-care David W. Johnson https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson It's time to "think different" about the organization, delivery and purpose of dental care. Oral health is a key component of overall health. New business models are emerging that will enhance dental care with lower costs, greater access, improved convenience and a broader range of services. Investor Activists Want a Bite at the Apple https://econvue.com/pulse/investor-activists-want-bite-app Marsha Vande Berg https://econvue.com/experts/marsha-vande-berg California teachers have teamed up with an East Coast activist hedge fund to petition Apple Inc. to step up its game and give parents the tools and choices they need to ensure smartphones don't damage children's health. Together, CalSTRS and JANA Partners are turning an old adage on its ear about gifting shiny apples to teachers. https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Feconvue.com%2Fpulse%2Fwhat-watch-2018&data=02%7C01%7C%7C208339101a064bdc6bbc08d56bfcb664%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636533655493280742&sdata=AvIlXurHoetObql4TuWTsBSL6wB1Nx2SpsNnaivKiks%3D&reserved=0 STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT How much does trade impact Americans? Not all that much http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01ee-1803/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct13_1/1?sid=TV2%3ApGQYvtSb9 Derek Scissors 3/12/2018 The Hill Both sides of the debate exaggerate the influence of the latest White House actions on trade. The market dogs that didn't bark https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/price-correction-limited-to-equities-by-anatole-kaletsky-2018-02 Anatole Kaletsky 2/27/2018 Project Syndicate Oil and bond prices, and currencies have remained stable. This could change. Saudi Aramco IPO delayed until 2019, UK officials told https://www.ft.com/content/62fa88b0-21f4-11e8-9a70-08f715791301 Anjli Raval, Henry Mance and Patrick Jenkins, 3/11/2018 Financial Times A lot could happen in equity markets by 2019. Crude oil's next move? Clues from soybean oil http://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/crude-oils-next-move-clues-from-soybean-oil.html#.WqKj0m9t3AE.twitter Erik Norland 3/1/2018 CME Group Not my job: We quiz economist Austan Goolsbee on home economics https://www.npr.org/2018/03/10/592445598/not-my-job-we-quiz-economist-austan-goolsbee-on-home-economics NPR, 3/10/2018 In the year 2018, when I said that I write about economics, I was actually asked if I meant home economics. But I think I would have done pretty well on this quiz. This is what happens when Bitcoin miners take over your town https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/09/bitcoin-mining-energy-prices-smalltown-feature-217230 Paul Roberts March/April issue Politico Magazine This is superb long form journalism. If you invest time in reading pieces like this, you will understand the world of cryptocurrencies. Illinois has been quietly considering Bitcoin for tax payments https://www.coindesk.com/illinois-has-been-quietly-considering-bitcoin-for-tax-payments/ Stan Higgins 3/6/2018 Coin Desk So much for regulatory blowback. Once local governments start accepting tax payments in cryptocurrencies, it is over Cryptocurrency investor sees gold in the tokenized infrastructure https://siliconangle.com/blog/2018/03/02/crypto-investor-sees-gold-in-the-tokenized-infrastructure-polycon18/ Mark Albertson 3/2/2018 Silicon Angle From tolls to tokens, the intersection of cryptocurrency and infrastructure. Interview with Brad Rotter. Alexa, play the financial-industry finale http://www.fedfin.com/blog/2633-karen-petrou-on-alexa-play-the-financial-industry-finale Karen Petrou 3/9/2018 Federal Financial Analytics Will the convenience of combining banking and shopping lead to monopolies and unforeseen systemic risks? Australia's student loan problem is a teachable moment for the U.S. https://www.brookings.edu/research/australias-student-loan-problem-is-a-teachable-moment-for-the-u-s/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=es Jason Delisle and Alex Usher 3/2/2018 Brookings Institute The downside of income-based repayment programs. Uber launches Uber Health, a B2B ride-hailing platform for healthcare https://beta.techcrunch.com/2018/03/01/uber-launches-uber-health-a-b2b-ride-hailing-platform-for-healthcare/ Darrell Etherington 3/1/2018 Tech Crunch This is a great idea. Solves the last mile problem for autonomous vehicles as well. Why has the US fallen behind the UK in labor force participation? https://medium.com/bonothesauro/why-has-the-us-fallen-behind-the-uk-in-labor-force-participation-3775b29b625 Ernie Tedeschi https://medium.com/@ernietedeschi?source=post_header_lockup 2/23/2018 Medium https://medium.com/bonothesauro/why-has-the-us-fallen-behind-the-uk-in-labor-force-participation-3775b29b625 We are older and less healthy than our British cousins. But the biggest reason we have fallen behind the UK in labor force participation, is that due to more generous maternity leave policies, women in the UK stay in the labor force longer Beijing and Shanghai overbuild suggests growth hit by 2019 https://www.cfr.org/blog/beijing-and-shanghai-overbuild-suggests-growth-hit-2019?utm_medium=social_share&utm_source=tw Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca 2/27/2018 Council on Foreign Relations Don't forget new property taxes. @BennSteil https://twitter.com/BennSteil estimates that a 10% fall in housing would knock .5% off Chinese GDP. Beijing and Shanghai Overbuild Suggests Growth Hit by 2019 A Chinese puzzle: Why economic "reform" in Xi's China has more meanings than market liberalization https://macropolo.org/chinese-puzzle-economic-reform-xis-china-meanings-market-liberalization/ Evan A. Feigenbaum 2/26/2018 Macro Polo Blog With all best wishes, Lyric Hughes Hale Editor-in-Chief Econvue.com https://www.econvue.com Facebook https://www.facebook.com/Econvue-1441609279386714/ Twitter https://twitter.com/lyrichues Subscribe to Econvue https://econvue.com/why-subscribe My articles for Yale Books London http://yalebooks.wordpress.com/?s=lyric+Hughes+Hale "What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy" http://whatsnextbook.com/ ©2018 EconVue, LLC. All rights reserved. This document may not be quoted, forwarded, disseminated, distributed, or published without the express written consent of EconVue, LLC. Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of EconVue, LLC., are economic in nature, and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. This email and any attachments to it may be confidential and are intended solely for the use of the individual to whom it is addressed. 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