September Outlook: Will China Overshadow the Fed?

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davidhale@davidhaleweb.com

DATE:

2015-09-01 20:12:09

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R. Hunter Biden <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>

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Dear R. Hunter,

Until today's market events, we had been leaning towards a forecast of a
25bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, uncertainties about
China continue to cast a shadow over the US.

As I write in the attached bulletin, economists are used to basing their
market forecasts on economic data. The situation is now reversed, and
economists now have to carefully monitor market events in order to
determine when the Fed will act. This happened previously in September
2013 when Bernanke surprised by not easing asset purchases due to averse
reactions in emerging markets. We are entering a new era when global
concerns will strongly impact domestic monetary policy. China as well is
entering a new era, and unless unemployment numbers at the end of this
week surprise on the upside, uncertainties about what is going on in the
world's second largest economy can be expected to prevail.

With all best wishes,

David Hale
Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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