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By Elena Schneider | 04/05/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer and Matt Dixon

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WISCONSIN CURTAIN-RAISER - "Trump in trouble in Wisconsin," by POLITICO's Patrick Reis: "Winning has been Donald Trump's cure for all of his failings this campaign. But while his failings have been on full display this week, a Wisconsin win on Tuesday looks unlikely. Trump trails Ted Cruz in each of the last six major polls, including a Marquette University Law School survey last week that put Cruz in first place with 40 percent of the GOP primary vote, leading Trump by 10 percentage points. If those results hold, Cruz would not only win Wisconsin, but he'd take the lion's share of the state's 42 delegates thanks to Wisconsin's 'winner-take-most' primary rules."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0c95508c7bf0b0ea4dd3ddbe29d3f0ecfa00ea6b2fbef44c444b22b6d1735092

- NIGHT COURT - Keep an eye on Wisconsin's Supreme Court race Tuesday night, too: In addition to the presidential primaries, national groups are keeping a close eye on Tuesday's state Supreme Court race between conservative Scott Walker appointee Rebecca Bradley and her liberal challenger, JoAnne Kloppenburg. Outside groups have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars slamming both, and national groups have taken an interest because of, among other things, the state Supreme Court's role in overseeing redistricting in Wisconsin. Bradley led Kloppenburg 41 percent to 36 percent in last week's Marquette University Law School poll. Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.

THE ROAD TO SECOND PLACE - "Contested California primary impacts Sanchez's play for top-two Senate slot," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: " ... With multiple Republican Senate candidates splitting votes, Donald Trump on the ballot, and the Democratic presidential race still active, [Democratic Rep. Loretta] Sanchez's team sees several favorable factors converging that could boost her into the general election against Attorney General Kamala Harris, the Democratic poll leader, thanks to California's unusual top-two all-party primary. But increased turnout and enthusiasm on the Republican side, evident in virtually every state that's held a primary so far, could also boost a GOP
candidate's chances of making the general - and sink Sanchez's chance of setting up California's most significant intra-party clash since the new primary system was adopted." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0c95508c7bf0b0ea32a83a9c92a06c2a0f34c8f35e2786fa889a33112713c9e2

Days until the Wisconsin primary: 0. Days until the 2016 election: 216.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com and tmeyer@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about our Wal-Mart purchases: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @theodoricmeyer.

FIRST IN SCORE: BLUNT CAMPAIGN LAUNCHES ANTI-KANDER MICROSITE - Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt's campaign is launching a new "Kander Watch" microsite to highlight what it says are Kander's various wrong-doings and missteps. Among the initial attacks: a challenge to Kander's claim to be a fifth-generation Missourian, noting the Democratic candidate and Secretary of State actually graduated from high school in Kansas and has plenty of other ties to the state. The site is at KanderWatch.com.

Q1 FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP - FIRST IN SCORE - McCain outraises Kirkpatrick in Arizona: GOP Sen. John McCain outraised his Democratic challenger, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, in the first quarter of 2016 - though not by as big a margin as he had in previous quarters. McCain pulled in $1.2 million in the quarter, giving him $5.5 million on hand, according to a McCain campaign spokeswoman. Kirkpatrick came close to matching McCain, raising more than $1 million, but she still has far less cash, with $1.3 million in cash on hand, according to her campaign. Both campaigns appear to have spent more than half of what they raised during the quarter.

- SENATE - Ohio: Sen. Rob Portman raised $2.4 million in the first quarter of 2015 and has $13.5 million on hand as he prepares to face former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in November. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c406bbdcd885ba1cdf01c15180007c8c9379a9dd68147b641e

- HOUSE - FL-23: Tim Canova, a first-time candidate challenging Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz from the left in South Florida, raised $557,000. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c4e63f8f2046a55142eaaaddc5a7328ebe059f529925af00fe - MN-02: Democrat Angie Craig announced raising $400,000 - FL-01: Republican state Rep. Matt Gaetz raised $350,000, including a $100,000 personal loan (POLITICO Florida).

MOVING THE NEEDLE - "Racial politics upends Democratic Senate primary in Maryland," by POLITICO's Lauren French in Baltimore: " ... Six months ago, Edwards was an afterthought in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski. The race was Rep. Chris Van Hollen's to lose - a star in House Democratic leadership, he would swamp the field with his fundraising and big-name endorsements, the thinking went. But as the April 26 primary approaches, Edwards has pulled even or possibly slightly ahead of Van Hollen in one of the most hotly contested Democratic primaries of 2016. She has moved the needle with an explicit appeal to African-American voters, who typically make up about
two-fifths of the electorate in Maryland Democratic primaries." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c469e3c5094f3955f90c8c817d3b2aa264964df5c5fb183837

NEGATIVE RATES - McGinty opens line of attack on Sestak: With three weeks left in the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, Katie McGinty's campaign is ready to attack fellow Democrat Joe Sestak over Social Security cuts. Sestak has repeatedly praised the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which includes cuts to Social Security and Medicare by raising the retirement age. Senior Votes Count! leader Jon Bauman - also known as Bowzer from Sha Na Na - attacked Sestak on the issue in a press call Monday. And when the Philadelphia Inquirer's editorial board asked her to differentiate herself from Sestak, McGinty said: "I would not start by trying to balance a budget on the back of senior
citizens - don't agree with that, don't think that's the right way to go." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c4db13d1ab9dcdaa621a72016bf69baf0485db397ae4959236

- One slight problem with McGinty's attack: Ed Rendell, her campaign chairman, has repeatedly praised the Simpson-Bowles plan. So too, frankly, did President Barack Obama, whose endorsement McGinty and friends have been touting of late.

- Meanwhile, Braddock Mayor John Fetterman's campaign released a memo highlighting their candidate's path to victory: Pennsylvania races, including Gov. Tom Wolf's Democratic primary victory, have a history of breaking late. They argue Fetterman's success on social media makes him more likely to break out, and argue the campaign's unique ads will cut through a landscape likely to be cluttered with more traditional spots for McGinty, Sestak, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

ON YOUR TV, AT YOUR DOOR - In Wisconsin ... "Americans for Prosperity launches $1 million campaign touting U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson," by The Washington Post's Matea Gold: "The conservative advocacy group Americans for Prosperity is rolling out a three-week, $1.1-million campaign in support of U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), part of an early effort by the Koch-backed group to build a firewall around Senate Republicans. The campaign, which launches Wednesday, stresses Johnson's business credentials over his time in Washington. It includes a gauzy television spot that opens with scenes of the bucolic Wisconsin countryside and a beaming baby, while a female narrator calls the state 'a place of
inspiration and aspiration.' ... The ad is set to run on broadcast, cable and digital. It will be bolstered on the ground by a door-knocking effort in seven cities including La Crosse, Waukesha and Milwaukee, where AFP staff and volunteers will hand out a leaflet highlighting the national debt." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c4529b215af2e8d92f1b765b2adf68df850c9b684264821882

- In Nevada ... The League of Conservation Voters kicked off its first IE work of 2016 not with a television spot, but with a field operation in Nevada, backing former Democratic Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto for Senate. The group is investing a quarter million dollars in a "persuasion canvass campaign" in the greater Las Vegas area, according to the group's statement Monday.

- In Pennsylvania ... "EMILY's List is out with a positive spot backing ... McGinty in Pennsylvania's Democratic Senate primary. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c47d1cbecff3fd7ad617322bf8ebfc3eaf654e29a41587027a

... THREE IF BY AIR - In Florida ... Republican candidate Carlos Beruff Monday released the first statewide ad of Florida's U.S. Senate campaign ... The spot focuses on the homebuilder's background as a developer. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c4c3b123ef950f64a2527a442deac763faa76705f374c2062f

- In Maryland ... "Rep. Donna Edwards is readying her first television ad in Maryland's Democratic Senate primary." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c4d8643ae6003adf3f88c3448df4b2d4ff41a4cd4dc0d0a6a3

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Sanders' Wisconsin ace in the hole," by Gabriel Debenedetti in Madison, Wis.: "Wisconsin has all the hallmarks of a Bernie Sanders-friendly state: large numbers of college-age voters, a progressive electorate and one of the whiter populations in the country. But ... it will feature another element that's proved just as vital to the Vermont senator's success: an open primary format where voters don't need to be Democrats to participate. ... While he's lost the majority of Democratic primaries that have taken place this year, the three primary wins he's posted - New Hampshire, Michigan, and Vermont - have all come in states with open contests where non-Democrats can
vote. Aside from caucuses - where Sanders tends to crush Clinton - an open primary usually offers Sanders his best shot at victory." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c46b86609d78710b7551515caeef5fda5b1483aad439b62501

- "Anti-Trump super PAC does Wisconsin robocall," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "On the eve of the critical Wisconsin primary, an anti-Donald Trump super PAC is releasing a robocall spotlighting a home-state congressman who's turned the New York businessman into a punching bag. In the call, Wisconsin Rep. Reid Ribble, who was elected in the conservative wave of 2010, casts Trump as a former liberal who would "unravel" the policies he and fellow congressional Republicans have pushed for. He specifically points to Trump's expressions of support for government-funded health care and his past opposition to a ban on partial birth abortion." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c488ea33059ee43e5b2bfc3100e87c356a775f173dbc8839f3

- "Inside Trump's 'privatized mercenary force,'" by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel: "A POLITICO investigation revealed that Trump has assembled a privately funded security and intelligence force with a far wider reach than other campaigns' private security operations: tracking and rooting out protesters, patrolling campaign events and supplementing the Secret Service's protection of the billionaire real estate showman during his non-traditional campaign for the GOP presidential nomination." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f42dc8e557cd45c4564ad20fe987e142e9efa967c46558697d484aed36f39d43

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This is how I feel about The Colorado Springs Gazette's attack on me today," tweeted state Sen. Tim Neville, along with a picture of him wearing an "American Patriot" hat, holding what looks like an assault rifle and pointing to a copy of the Gazette, riddled with bullet holes. The Gazette wrote that the GOP would be "blowing a rare opportunity" if they nominated Neville.

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