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04/04/2016 07:17 AM EDT


By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

Good Monday morning. EXCLUSIVE: On the eve of the Wisconsin primaries, top Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul Ryan will wind up as the nominee, perhaps on the fourth ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention. One of the nation's best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60% chance of a convention deadlock, and a 90% chance that delegates turn to Ryan - ergo, a 54% chance that Ryan, who'll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee. "He's the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment," the Republican source
said. "That's what you need to be."

Ryan, who's more calculating and ambitious than he lets on, is running the same playbook he did to become Speaker: saying he doesn't want it, that it won't happen. In both cases, the maximum leverage is to NOT WANT IT - and to be begged to do it. He and his staff are trying to be as Shermanesque as it gets. Ryan repeated his lack of interest this morning in an interview from Israel with radio host Hugh Hewitt.

But of course in this environment, saying you don't want the job is the ONLY way to get it. If he was seen to be angling for it, he'd be stained and disqualified by the current mess. But Ryan, 46, a likable Midwesterner, could look too tempting to resist as Republicans finally focus on a beatable Hillary Clinton. He got rave reviews for a "State of American Politics" speech on March 23 (hashtag on his podium: "#ConfidentAmerica," the title of his high-minded manifesto at the Library of Congress in December). In the "State of Politics" address, Ryan offered himself as the anti-Trump (without mentioning The Don): "Politics can be a battle of ideas, not insults."

On "Morning Joe" this morning, Joe Scarborough said that if Trump falls even one vote short of a clinch, the convention will "look for someone else": "If Trump doesn't get the number, they'll say they have rules for a reason." And Karl Rove told Hewitt last week: "A fresh face might be the thing that would give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary."

Top Republicans tell us "fresh face" is code for "Paul Ryan." A Ryan friend chuckled when we asked if he wants it, and pointed to last month's address: "That was somebody who was laying out the speech that, in most cases, you'd give six months before you announce you're going to run - when you're going around the country, raising money for your leadership PAC."

MINDMELD from a Ryan friend: "I agree that a fresh face would be important. And it is true that a number of GOP leaders and activists want Paul to run for president at the convention. But he really doesn't want to do it. Now, some will say that he said the same thing when he was picked for V.P. But I don't think that is accurate. He was far more open to being V.P. during the vetting process (when he had time to think about it and the option to shut down the process) than he is to running for president.

"As for Speaker, it's true that he said he'd never do it. But he did have a strong view about the terms under which he'd run for Speaker and serve as Speaker -- he just didn't believe that his colleagues would accept his terms. So, as for running for president, it's different. He can't imagine an end to this current process that would produce him as the nominee. He can't see it and he's not prepared to entertain it. He won't receive anybody that wants to talk about it. He's simply not engaging it."

THE ROAD to 1,237 -- "What a delegate war really looks like: The GOP campaigns get up close and personal to woo convention supporters," by Shane Goldmacher in Fargo, N.D.: "Cruz and Trump are no longer just battling over states. They're battling over people. ... What played out [at North Dakota's GOP convention] over the weekend was, in miniature, a portrait of the delegate battle to come: a mix of intrigue and intense lobbying, whispers of delegate misdirection, a super PAC's quiet involvement, and a last-minute push to change the rules as everyone jockeyed to identify and elect loyalists. It was also a preview of what a contested convention might look like. ...

"Some Trump operatives working the convention bragged about their spread. One noted they were the only campaign to offer hot food - eggrolls and meatballs - on Friday night ... At the convention site itself, among the available food for sale not from the campaigns was oil-and-gas industry themed fare, such as 'Frack Jacks' (buttermilk pancake mix), 'Drill bits' (spicy crackers), 'Sweet crude' (wild chokecherry syrup) and 'Shale crunch' (an almond butter snack)." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee44f3501e0436916edc4ee53c540cc767d77920808c3caec57

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "The GOP's (other) convention nightmare: An old struggle is set to split the party in the heat of a presidential campaign," by Alex Isenstadt: "Republicans ... now have another fight brewing: a divisive battle over gay marriage on the party's official national platform. ... ... Some of the party's biggest financiers, attempting to transform the GOP's approach, have been helping to bankroll the American Unity Fund, a group that has launched a well-organized, behind-the-scenes effort to lobby convention delegates who will draw up the platform. It is asking them to adopt language that would accommodate same sex marriage. The organization, which has offices in Washington,
... has the backing of billionaire investors Paul Singer, Dan Loeb, Seth Klarman, and Cliff Asness." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4584d4ccbe3950d142fdd390f01677501f3b85115bcfeac18

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10th ANNIVERSARY for Dan Senor and Campbell Brown, who posts on Facebook: "Happy 10th anniversary Dan Senor. Greatest Dad. My best friend." Pic of Dan with their kids on the field at a Jets game http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee45b63ebfd3337ff87f51491f4bda0c230b48c5298c7ae6f92 ... Pic of their boys on the jumbotron at the Brooklyn Nets game yesterday http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4c2f170df659c72f8cdd8d6e363ed1d90df92dac9ae3f3ab2

HOW TRUMP DID IT -- NEW YORK magazine cover story, "How the Trump Campaign Actually Works ... OPERATION TRUMP: Inside the most unorthodox campaign in political history," by Gabe Sherman: "Trump's campaign employs a core team of about a dozen people; his campaign lists 94 people on the payroll nationwide, according to the latest ... filing (Hillary Clinton has 765). Trump has no pollsters, media coaches, or speechwriters. He focus-groups nothing. He buys few ads, and when he does, he likes to write them himself. He also writes his own tweets, his main vehicle for communicating with his supporters. And it was his idea to adopt Ronald Reagan's slogan 'Make America Great Again!' ...

"[Hope Hicks, Trump's 27-year-old press secretary, told] me about the time they were driving to a campaign event when Ivanka called to update Trump on a development. 'He said, "Go with the marble. Now I have to run, baby. I'm about to give a speech." ... His worldview is that life is a contest, and he's been winning it for years. ...

"When they're in New York, Hicks spends most of her day sitting in Trump's office with her laptop, fielding press inquiries and taking dictation from him to tweet. Lewandowski spends most of his time in the campaign office, organizing logistics. He's said to approve every invoice himself. Trump has given them both free apartments at a nearby Trump building.

"The small scale and near-constant proximity mean they can respond to events quickly. ... Trump is cheap, and proud of it. ... Lewandowski's bonus for winning New Hampshire was a paltry $50,000. ... 'I don't spend much money,' [Trump] told me. 'In New Hampshire, I spent $2 million' - actually $3.7 million - 'Bush spent $48 million' - actually $36.1 million - 'I came in first in a landslide, he came in sixth' - actually fourth. 'Who do you want as your president?' ...

"As Trump sees it, his television instincts are better than any of the network executives. 'CNN is up 75 percent because of me. Call Jeff Zucker and you ask him. Because of me. You know [the NYC radio station] 1010 wins? They say 'All news all the time.' CNN is called 'All Trump all the time.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee44ded821062cd760f3406b34af9d89ae918ce8cf04de6c58f ... See the cover. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee492c03cdacc32194aee4efc9a8520fdc5f77d3e42ddeb4f5f

TOP TWEET -- @davidplouffe: "If Trump loses, not because he was 'treated unfairly'. It was because of epic political malpractice on many levels. Controlled his destiny."

INSIDE THE CAMPAIGNS - N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "EARLY MISSTEPS SEEN AS A DRAG ON SANDERS BID: LATE-STAGE MOMENTUM -- Senator Now Needs Landslide Victories to Catch Clinton," by Patrick Healy and Yamiche Alcindor: "[A]llies and advisers of Mr. Sanders say they missed opportunities to run an aggressive political operation in 2015 that would have presented more of a challenge to Mrs. Clinton. ... Despite the urging of some advisers, Mr. Sanders refused last fall and early winter to criticize Mrs. Clinton over her $675,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs, an issue that he now targets almost daily.

"He also gave her a pass on her use of private email as secretary of state, even though some allies wanted him to exploit it. And he insisted on devoting time to his job as a senator from Vermont last year rather than matching Mrs. Clinton's all-out effort to capture the nomination. Some advisers now say that if he had campaigned more in Iowa, he might have avoided his critical loss there." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee45305b3abc4d292599b3a00c5006a0208a016eb4351194490

TRAIL PIC -- @WPJohnWagner: "A rarity on the campaign trail. A Bernie Sanders event with empty seats. A town hall on racial issues in Milwaukee." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee42bca9fb7a37ca740245b8cf0607cab25d20945546261e3e0

JOE SCARBOROUGH barn-burner column for WashPost, "Trump leaves the conservative establishment arrogant and unmoored": "When members of Manhattan's media elite come to Mark Halperin's home for dinner, Halperin likes to ask his guests whether they have spent more time in Paris or Staten Island. More often than not, his guests select the destination that does not offer regular ferry service from Battery Park. ... [I]n 2016, conservative commentators are sounding as cocooned from their own political party as any liberal ...

"[M]any conservative opinion shapers are spending their waking hours coping with a festering Zapruder-like obsession over video frames of the Corey Lewandowski-Michelle Fields confrontation ... [T]hese voters, formerly called common-sense conservatives, are considered drug-addled losers who are too stupid to determine what is in their best interest. ... Erick Erickson (@EWErickson): 'A lot of Trump voters have failed at life and blame others for their own poor decisions. They're using Trump as a vehicle for revenge. ...

"Like many Republican critics of Trump, my first, second and third choices did not survive the early stages of Trumpism. I still believe Jeb Bush would have been the best president to sit in the Oval Office since Ronald Reagan. And if John Kasich is still campaigning when Connecticut Republicans go to the polls, he will get my vote. But I've stormed the barricades enough over the past 20 years to know that there is always another fight beyond the one that promises to bring about a magnificent victory or bloody political end." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee49e113495249eaac26e001ed65c7aa8f5750d7cfb9ddc2e92

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION - N.Y. Times A1, below fold, "Capital's Metro, Creaking at 40, Is Staring Down a Midlife Crisis," by Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Nicholas Fandos: "The capital's once-glorious subway system, the nation's second busiest, is short on cash and a terrible mess. ... [Y]ears of well-documented safety lapses ... reveal how a grand vision of American liberalism has collided with reality now that Metro has hit middle age. ... Commuters are frustrated and are abandoning the subway. Weekday ridership declined 6.1 percent in the last half of 2015." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee46ac9904a75104e586c57c44544bbb4ad94b1116d99562ae9

--N.Y. TIMES Quotation of the Day, JACK EVANS, chairman of the transit agency that oversees the Metro in Washington: "It's a system that's maybe safe, somewhat unreliable, and that is being complained about by everybody."

EDWARD SNOWDEN (@Snowden) calls it "Biggest leak in the history of data journalism" -- "Giant Leak of Offshore Financial Records Exposes Global Array of Crime and Corruption" -- International Consortium of Investigative Journalists: "A massive leak of documents exposes the offshore holdings of 12 current and former world leaders and reveals how associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin secretly shuffled as much as $2 billion through banks and shadow companies. ... The cache of 11.5 million records shows how a global industry of law firms and big banks sells financial secrecy to politicians, fraudsters and drug traffickers as well as billionaires, celebrities and sports stars."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4366659bd067f079007ba718d14b2d1d36a5ed8a309986b79 ... ICIJ's "Panama Papers" landing page http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4e64c514101454b364ebf72581b414185f89ea6894489a031

--"Revealed: the $2bn offshore trail that leads to Vladimir Putin," by The Guardian's Luke Harding: "A network of secret offshore deals and vast loans worth $2bn has laid a trail to Russia's president, Vladimir Putin. An unprecedented leak of documents shows how this money has made members of Putin's close circle fabulously wealthy. Though the president's name does not appear in any of the records, the data reveals a pattern - his friends have earned millions from deals that seemingly could not have been secured without his patronage. The documents suggest Putin's family has benefited from this money - his friends' fortunes appear his to spend." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4b89f5da7eae223f7751ad2acd7001a72f0c78cfca9f97117
... Guardian front page http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee462fcd95d1e0a73d4b6ac92c00877c04c5cae4c27cd7771d8

--Bobby Ghosh (@ghoshworld): "Can we just remind ourselves that the #PanamaPapers are from just ONE law firm, in just ONE tax haven. Tip of the proverbial iceberg."

TOP-ED - YOUSEF AL OTAIBA, UAE ambassador to the U.S., "One Year After the Iran Nuclear Deal" in the WSJ: "Sadly, behind all the talk of change, the Iran we have long known-hostile, expansionist, violent-is alive and well, and as dangerous as ever. ... It is now clear that one year since the framework for the deal was agreed upon, Iran sees it as an opportunity to increase hostilities in the region. But instead of accepting this as an unfortunate reality, the international community must intensify its actions to check Iran's strategic ambitions." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee48c4531e07d4776f3b9a60fe3509ff57785ac9a319275adeb

SPOTTED: In Spanish papers, Jim Courtovich in the President's Box at the FCBarcelona v. Real Madrid match known as the El Clasico on Saturday night. Real Madrid won 2-1. Courto was later seen having dinner in Barcelona at midnight with current FCBarcelona and immediate past Presidents of the famed football club. Newspaper pic of Courto in a blue jacket http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee424a575a5bd704fb8d0c0a0f6b3e7c07ea62a17567ad895cf ... CNN's Jim Scuitto at the Villanova-Oklahoma game on Saturday night; his nephew Henry Lowe plays for Villanova ... former deputy CIA director Michael Morell at Holy Trinity Church in Georgetown Sunday morning. Our tipster: "His distinct glasses were the give away."

--SEND YOUR SPOTTINGS to dlippman@politico.com

INSTAGRAM DU JOUR -- @alexanderiburns: "This is 30" (pic of Alex and MJ Lee at dinner on the beach in St. Lucia) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee46cf8d309051f630b7b3bfc31eef6f8939a1cb448bb174a39

WEST WING UPGRADE - NYT A10, "Technology Upgrades Get White House Out of the 20th Century," by Mike Shear in a White House Letter: "Until very recently, West Wing aides were stuck in a sad and stunning state of technological inferiority: desktop computers from the last decade, black-and-white printers that could not do double-sided copies, aging BlackBerries (no iPhones), weak wireless Internet and desktop phones so old that few staff members knew how to program the speed-dial buttons. ... [The White House] hired David Recordon, who designed and maintained the office technology for Mark Zuckerberg and the other employees at Facebook ... [and he] started replacing computers (the new ones
have fast, solid-state drives and modern processors) and color printers.

"The new phone system - the first since the Clinton years - is all digital, with built-in speakerphones and speed-dial buttons that can be changed online. Many White House aides now carry the most recent iPhones." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee498083b89a6580829b6c71fccd57cf32d151e016f284d8a89

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE - Caroline Coscia is returning to the White House to work closely with Liz Allen and Jen Psaki in the press office. Coscia, formerly a senior press lead on the White House Scheduling and Advance team, is returning as Associate Communications Director. In this new role, Caroline will be responsible for working with comms staff to help manage rollouts, events and message planning.

TRANSITIONS - "Fresh from serving as a Rubio regional press secretary, Jeremy Adler rejoins the America Rising family becoming Communications Director for its growing 501c4, America Rising Squared (AR2), which is leading the charge for conservatives on the Supreme Court fight, opposition to the labor unions' $15 minimum wage campaign, among other efforts. Jeremy previously served on the Senate Team at America Rising, and is an alum of the Scott Brown campaign and the University of Richmond."

--Michael Bennett has been named contributing principal at strategy, policy and comms firm theGROUP. He has been consulting on his own with several tech cybersecurity and emerging technology companies after leaving in 2014 as SVP and CIO of BAE Systems. Forthcoming release http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee422b05a5323a6513a6ec9d9336a49454d9c7bc11d8bc78851

RNC ALUMNI - JAMES HEWITT returns to Dezenhall as senior director after a stint as the RNC's deputy press secretary. Other hires to be announced today: Josh Culling as an SVP and Kit Bond Strategies' John Mitchell as an associate. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4cdd760a90595a5817d17ff1a397cf385a1031d8804f6ba6d

MEDIAWATCH - "Bernie Sanders Supporters Protest Election Coverage At Hollywood CNN Building" - CBS/LA: "A large group of Bernie Sanders supporters gathered at the CNN building on Sunset Blvd. in Hollywood Sunday to protest the cable channel's coverage of the 2016 presidential election. Sanders supporters organized online under the #OccupyCNN and #BernieBlackout hashtags. Many protesters voiced concerns that candidates are not getting equal airtime on the cable channel." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee48eb733bf44202eb35ddf1ea7e806f2089e30e8282c166fbd

--TODAY is "National Hug a Newsperson Day" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4ccf09ce0765682ad0ac901a0f31809de575cd91cc3145c16 To elicit more hugs, our tipster suggests: "Reporters should wear a button or something."

--NYT's T Magazine is launching a new column called "Perfect Strangers" in its upcoming Culture Issue (in print on Sunday, 4/17) and online this morning. "In the new column, T brings together two people for the very first time. The inaugural column features talk-show host Chelsea Handler and cultural critic and former longtime literary editor at The New Republic Leon Wieseltier in conversation mere moments after being introduced. They met on a chilly February afternoon in New York, and discussed everything from unconditional love to American politics and the danger of self-censorship." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4d0cc964392fca77a193f935700dd1c566a5dbd34f6ef3227

MIKE BARNICLE in Daily Beast, "The Timeless Beauty of Baseball": "[I]t allows you, still, to lose yourself in a dream, to feel and remember a season of life when summer never seemed to die and the assault of cynicism hadn't begun to batter optimism. ... Baseball is a game that shouts 'Slow Down' to America. ... Baseball is the perfect antidote to one of the particular cultural poisons of the age: That we-nearly everyone-are so busy, so time crunched, so stressed, so worn out by the demands and disappointments of life, of the economy, of family issues that there is not a second to spare in the course of a day." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee4a1df0ad7057daea02487c027caa0bb562ca7ce67ab4071e0

SPORTS BLINK -- "MLB average salary $4.4M after 4.4 pct rise," by AP's Ronald Blum: "[T]he Los Angeles Dodgers topped spending for the third straight season. The Chicago Cubs boosted payroll by $51 million, adding Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist in an effort to win their first title since 1908. After beating the Cubs in the NL Championship Series and losing to Kansas City in the World Series, the New York Mets hiked spending by nearly $38 million. ... The New York Yankees, No. 1 for 15 straight years before the Dodgers' payroll surge, are second at $225 million followed by Detroit ($196 million), Boston ($190 million) and San Francisco ($173 million). The average for the 864
players on opening-day rosters, the disabled list and the restricted list was $4,381,980." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee45c37b47baea440fa6c85754bdd3cc26b886bf3ce4e327b09

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Brian Beutler, senior editor at the New Republic (who survived a hail of DC gunfire in 2008), married Kelley Dillon (a grants management specialist for the DC mayor and also a roller girl star with the name Kitty O'Slay) at Malmaison in Georgetown, officiated by her brother John. The most romantic moment was when the bride promised not to haunt the groom if she died first. They met and love almost sparked at Black Cat but it didn't quite take and then after a brief year and a half hiatus, it was reignited at Sollys at U Street. Pic of the couple cutting the cake http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2d9b78d2e93acee43710baa2232d55a01995e8b51cf316a820afad5c5a65db3c

SPOTTED: Josh Dorner, Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, Todd Zwillich, Brad Plumer, Adam Serwer, Sasha Bruce, Joshua Peck, Aniello Alioto, Susie Whitlock, Tim Tagaris, Chrissy Bonanno, Lori Lodes (with a new jean jacket), Eddie and Katey Vale, Matt Browner-Hamlin, Ari Rabin Havt, Julie Egermeyer, Jessica McIntosh, Dave Weigel, Evan McMorris-Santoro, Jenny Towns, Jeffery Young (who caught Eddie sneaking on the roast beef line), Noreen Nielson.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Hope Elizabeth Goins, chief counsel for the House Homeland Security committee (h/t Tiffany Brown) ... Emily Spitzer

BIRTHDAYS: NYT's Jo Becker ... author Kitty Kelley is 74 ... former Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) is 84 ... Molly Edwards, deputy press secretary in the Office of the Speaker (h/t #teamryan comms) ... Charles Halloran, celebrating with Chris (h/t Jon Haber) ... Senegal turns 56 on its Independence Day (h/t @BCIU) ... Bruce Wolpe, a Henry Waxman alum and chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard of Australia, is 65, celebrating with a state visit to DC the week of April 18 ... KJ Heal (h/t Jeremy Adler) ... cybersecurity reporter and Politico alum Joe Marks ... Warren Ryan, policy advisor at Treasury and a Hotchkiss graduate ... Kristin Bannerman ... Hillary Maxwell, a Bush 43 Ed.
dept alum now in public affairs and corporate comms. at Dell ...

... Judith Czelusniak, a Bloomberg alum now doing marketing/PR in Florida (h/t David Bass) ... Sam Lane, reporter/producer at PBS NewsHour and proud Minnesotan ... Dena Levitz, a 1776 alum now a journalist/senior researcher at Web Summit ... Michael Halle, former advisor to Gov. McAuliffe and Obama 2012 NC alum ...

... Admiral Bobby Ray Inman, former NSA Director and LBJ School prof, is 85 ... Meghan Keck, senior manager for global public affairs at GE and a DOT and Burson-Marsteller alum ... former Sen. Mo Cowan (D-Mass.) ... Neil Giacobbi, associate VP of public affairs at AT&T ... Joy Wang, homepage editor for MSNBC, a WNYC alum ...

... Darienne Page, now an economic liaison at CALIBRE Systems, an Obama alum and formerly ROTUS, the White House Receptionist ... Dan Hauser ... Tyler Beckley of Knoxville ... Ryan Davis, director of business development at Founder.org ... Alex Paulitz ... Jerry Irvine, public affairs manager at Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission and an alum of Global Fund for Children ... Francis Kidd ... Joe Riccca ... Alfred Stanley ... Katreice Banks ... Laura Dresser ... Nile Ritchie (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Rob Stutzman ... recording executive Clive Davis is 84 ... Steve Gatlin (The Gatlin Brothers) is 65 (h/t Josh) ... Constance Shulman ("Orange is the New Black") is 58 ... Robert Downey Jr. is
51 ... magician David Blaine is 43 ... singer Austin Mahone is 20 (h/ts AP)

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