EMAIL DETAILS

By Maggie Severns | 03/22/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SIREN - "House leaders' biggest 2018 fear: The lazy Republican," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "On paper, Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas) appears to be a shoo-in for reelection. ... But Culberson's suburban Houston district went for Hillary Clinton by 1 percentage point in 2016. And when GOP leaders found out last year that he was being outraised by Democrats and barely had a campaign staff, they were exasperated. Get your act together, they warned Culberson in so many words, according to sources familiar with the dress down.

"Culberson's slow start to his reelection campaign is what GOP leaders fear most heading into the thick of the midterm elections: incumbents who haven't seen a real race in years snoozing as a Democratic wave builds. ... Rep. Glenn Grothman's team is another office that's received a talking-to. Ryan is personally helping campaign for the Wisconsin Republican, who hasn't had a competitive race since he was elected in 2014. His sprawling district partly abutting Lake Michigan has been a Republican stronghold since the 1960s. But Grothman now faces a wealthy Democratic challenger who's planning to spend hundreds of thousands of his own money on the race." Full story.

PROFILE - "The Former College Dropout Who Would Be Dianne Feinstein," by POLITICO's David Siders in Santa Ana, Calif.: "Fourteen people and three rescue cats were awaiting Kevin de León when he pulled up to a PetSmart and stepped inside through drizzling rain. In his briefing folder, an aide had included a note titled, 'Cat puns you can use, if you're feeling festive!' De León hit nearly all of them. ... It had been two weeks since de León impressed a crowd on a more brightly lit stage. In a coup at the California Democratic Party's annual convention last month, de León - until Wednesday the Democratic leader of California's state Senate - deprived Dianne
Feinstein of her own party's endorsement by outpolling the state's senior senator by 17 percentage points in the delegate vote. ...

"For de León and his supporters, the convention marked a turning point not only in his quixotic campaign to unseat Feinstein, but also in a generational struggle among Democrats in the nation's most populous state." Full story.

- "Poll: Feinstein, Newsom lead California primaries," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "A new Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Sen. Dianne Feinstein maintaining a wide lead over state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, a fellow Democrat, in the all-party Senate primary. Feinstein leads de León 42 percent to 16 percent. Nearly four in 10 likely voters, 39 percent, are undecided. .. In the governor's race, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has pulled in front of the all-party primary field, the poll shows, with 28 percent. The poll also shows the GOP has a shot at a second-place finish and berth in the general election, with three candidates in a virtual tie for second in
the survey, two of them Republicans." Full story.

SHE'S IN - Bryant officially taps Hyde-Smith for Cochran seat: "Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant has officially tapped state Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith to replace Republican Sen. Thad Cochran when he steps down next month. Hyde-Smith said this afternoon in a statement that she will accept Bryant's appointment - and also seek to complete the final two years of Cochran's term by running in this fall's special election. ... The special, nonpartisan election will be held Nov. 6; insurgent conservative state Sen. Chris McDaniel is already in the race. If no candidate earns a majority in the Nov. 6 vote, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff." Full story.

- YIKES - "White House opposed Republican picked to replace Cochran," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "White House officials this week told Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant that President Donald Trump did not plan to campaign for or endorse Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith if she was appointed to the state's open Senate seat, saying they were worried that the former Democrat would lose. Bryant responded that he intended to pick Hyde-Smith for the post, anyway.'" Full story.

Days until the 2018 election: 230

Upcoming election dates - Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia primaries: May 8.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

IT AIN'T OVER TILL - Saccone concedes in PA-18: Republican Rick Saccone called Democrat Conor Lamb on Wednesday to concede the Pennsylvania special election. Lamb had a 600-plus vote lead over Saccone in recent days but ballot challenges were still pending. Lamb broke the news on Twitter: "Just got off the phone with my opponent, @RickSaccone4PA, who congratulated me & graciously conceded last Tuesday's election. I congratulate Mr. Saccone for a close, hard-fought race & wish him the best. Ready to be sworn in & get to work for the people of #PA18," he tweeted.

** A message from MarketPredict: Political campaigns can change on the fly so your data and media buys need to be nimble as well. Introducing MarketPredict, live predictive modeling that helps you deliver smart media campaigns and convert voters! Get in touch with us so you can get in touch with your voters. info@market-predict.com | 202-408-2713 | Market-Predict.com **

PRIMARY POSTGAME - "Is Bruce Rauner toast?" by POLITICO's Natasha Korecki: "In the span of one day, Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner's fortunes went from bad to worse. ... With Democrats already uniting behind the free-spending billionaire who will lead their ticket in the fall, Illinois Republicans are wondering: After Tuesday's weak showing, does Rauner even have a prayer of winning reelection in November?" Full story.

- Sean Casten wins primary in IL-06: The tight Democratic primary race in Illinois' 6th District that was too close to call overnight on Tuesday has been settled, and the winner is Sean Casten with 29.9 percent of the vote over Kelly Mazeski's 26.5 percent. Casten will take on Rep. Peter Roskam in November.

- "Lipinski win stings liberals," by POLITICO's Heather Caygle and Elena Schneider: "House Democrats are trying to hit the reset button a day after Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski eked out a win in a nasty primary battle that had several of his own colleagues publicly rooting for his defeat. ... But it's clear that some of the residual feelings about Lipinski's politics - as an anti-abortion Democrat who has opposed marriage equality and Obamacare, he's one of the most conservative members of the caucus - still linger." Full story.

UP ON AIR - "Laxalt to launch first ad during Nevada's Sweet 16 game," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: "Nevada state Attorney General Adam Laxalt's gubernatorial campaign is rolling out its first television ad on Thursday during the University of Nevada's Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament game. The ad, a one-minute bio spot, features Laxalt first recounting his life growing up the son of a single mom and battling alcoholism before eventually joining the Navy and then going to Iraq." Full story.

- "Tipirneni attacks Lesko in first TV ad in AZ-08 special," by POLITICO's Elena Schneider: "Democrat Hiral Tipirneni began airing her first TV ad in next month's special congressional election in Arizona, attacking Republican former state Sen. Debbie Lesko as 'everything you hate about politics.'" Full story.

- Restoration PAC goes up in Montana: Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC backed by megadonor Richard Uihlein, is going up with television ads in Montana, according to Advertising Analytics. The group has reserved more than $200,000 of broadcast and satellite starting on Friday. It's unclear if the ads are attacking Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, boosting a candidate in the competitive GOP primary in the state, or both. The group recently started airing ads backing Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia.

WEB WARS - FIRST IN SCORE - Rokita campaign launches microsite targeting Messer: Rep. Todd Rokita's campaign is out with a new microsite targeting his Senate GOP primary rival, Rep. Luke Messer. The site, MissingMesser.com, attacks Messer over his home in Virginia and vacation home in Tennessee, and compares his issues to those that plagued former Sens. Dick Lugar and Evan Bayh. The campaign is promoting the site with a five-figure digital and search ad buy. "Have you seen this congressman?" the site asks. View it here.

POLLING DATA - McAdams trails Love by 3 points in UT-04: Democrat Ben McAdams' campaign released an internal poll that found McAdams trailing GOP Rep. Mia Love by 3 points, 43 percent to 40 percent. Love holds a name ID advantage, as 91 percent of surveyed voters are familiar with Love, compared to 60 percent for McAdams. Trump won the district by 7 points in 2016, but 68 percent of those surveyed gave him a negative job approval rating. Check out the full polling memo here.

GETTING THE NOD - PCCC endorses four House candidates: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed four new candidates running in House races, including Kara Eastman (NE-02), Jess King (PA-11), Kaniela Ing (HI-01) and Rashida Tlaib (MI-13).

2020 WATCH - "Garcetti edges toward presidential run with trip to Iowa," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Eric Garcetti is stopping just short of announcing he's running for president. The Los Angeles mayor and expected 2020 candidate is making a two-day swing through Iowa from April 13-14, with stops in Des Moines, Altoona, Davenport and Waterloo, hitting a union event, a political fundraiser and local tours along the way. The trip will make Garcetti the first prospective presidential candidate to visit all four of the first nominating states this cycle: he campaigned for Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig in New Hampshire in August, attended the Democratic National Committee's meeting in Las
Vegas in October and traveled to Columbia, S.C., to promote his 'Accelerator for America' nonprofit last month." Full story.

OPEN SECRETS - "The 'Worst Bosses' in Congress?" by POLITICO's Nolan D. McCaskill: "LegiStorm - the online portal that tracks Capitol Hill's workforce in detail - is putting hard data to the debate over the worst bosses in Congress. ... The office of Texas Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee topped the list in the House, with an annual turnover rate of 62 percent, according to LegiStorm. Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) came in behind her with 60 percent annual turnover, followed by Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) with 54 percent. In the Senate, Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar led the pack with an annual turnover rate of 36 percent, followed by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) with 30 percent and Sen. Joe
Manchin (D-W.Va.) with 28 percent. LegiStorm declines to guess whether the high turnover stems from a toxic work environment or employees simply advancing in their careers." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "All of my options are on the table. But I'm a Republican, I'm a conservative, and I just want to add to the public debate and do a good job," Ohio Gov. John Kasich said when asked if he is considering an independent challenge to Trump.

** A message from MarketPredict: MarketPredict provides a state-of-the-art way to optimize your media strategy. What's the MarketPredict difference?

Forecasts Voter Conversion, not just reach. MarketPredict will focus your marketing where it will have the most impact on convertible voters. Updated in Real Time. Our data adapts to changing election dynamics. Makes Omnichannel Recommendations. This includes all paid, earned, owned media & even accounts for word of mouth. Leverages Machine Learning. We apply artificial intelligence to account for data gaps and make our model smarter over time. Customizable. We'll work with you to run scenarios that are important to your campaign and can even ingest your proprietary data. Turn Key & Easy to Consume. Recommendations are sorted & color-coded, so there's no need to dig through large data
sets. We also have on-call political analysts and media experts to answer any questions you have along the way.

Market-Predict.com **


To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b11873fd69983ae06aef95933ed4746d165ca2c25c7719182309dd7869a21aa476eb26b130ec0d92d21233b62be816f
To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5b11873fd69983aee01545dba294081c9e1e24d1b9d7297a3608b60ebfdf79ceb319feaf7a7def8d0880fdad04167316 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=c1c81b2ef644fde1dd3c1f6178ef6a8ea3ee660992025bd4107408480d8be54f596c6489d133643d17cc2d6a5c29185158787812c279c168f2646fd82168f40b
This email was sent to Hbiden@rosemontseneca.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA


To unsubscribe,https://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000162-4e03-db61-a7fb-ffcf7e180000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=0fc19c088eb4e9584445bbb7caf5a5533f96af82f687e632659564ab87ac0f49ea3be6b0455d5fdb1aef36d2168bd8bdc9ea0aac943973f6b31530b7e27dccd0