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Dear R. Hunter,

Aside from the mild uncertainty caused by the Italian election's
inconclusive result, recent global economic news has been largely
benign. The US economy has proven to be resilient in the face of an
increase in the payroll tax and other fiscal drag, fears of currency
wars have subsided after the positive outcome from the recent G-20
meeting, and incoming leaders in China and Japan are set to implement
policies that should help China become more consumer-centric and revive
Japanese domestic demand and exports, respectively.

Attached you will find our latest global forecast, "Will the Stock
Market Rally Bring an Economic Upturn?" Key conclusions include:

Despite the payroll tax hike that has hit most US households,
non-consumption US indicators have displayed strength so far at the
start of the year

A curtailment of QE3 is unlikely to occur until the unemployment rate
approaches 7.0% during 2014

The Italian election could lead to bond yields rising 150-200 basis
points if a functioning government cannot be formed and a new election
has to be held later this year

The Japanese economy is showing signs of strength and optimism is
widespread as a new governor of the Bank of Japan is set to take over
and ease monetary policy further

The Chinese government is transitioning to new leaders at a time when it
is concerned about the rapid growth in total social financing and a
resurgence of property inflation


As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

546 Lincoln Avenue, 2 nd Floor

Winnetka, Illinois 60093 USA

847-386-6009 (tel)

847-386-6011 (fax)

davidhale@davidhaleweb.com

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