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Now I understand why you're coming to Rome in advance of the Papal selection!

If you and Hunter do come, I'd love to arrange golf for you on a cool course here (ruins all around).

In any event, it would be great to see you both.

David

PS - I've met the favorite mentioned below - Cardinal Turkson from Ghana. Bono and I went to see him in November. He's a great guy but I wouldn't put money on him to get the big job.


PERSONAL
This email is UNCLASSIFIED.


From: Cooke, Donna
Sent: Friday, March 01, 2013 2:39 PM
To: Rome USUN Users
Subject: Betting on the Next Pope?


From today's State Clips that we receive from the bi-lat....thought you'd all enjoy this.

A New Pope? What Are The Odds? (Diblasio, USAT)
Thursday, February 28, 2013
USA Today<http://www.usatoday.com/NEWS/usaedition/2013-02-28-A-new-pope--You-bet_ST_U.htm>
By Natalie Diblasio

It's not just the future of the Catholic Church riding on the selection of the next pope. More than 20,000 people have bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on the papal change and international bookmakers expect that dollar figure to quickly move into the millions.

Just two hours after Pope Benedict XVI announced his resignation, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power was out with their odds. Within 48 hours, they saw more than $200,000 in bets. The betting has escalated with each passing day that Benedict's tenure dwindles down. His resignation takes effect tonight.

It's illegal to place bets on the pope in the USA -- even in Nevada -- because it's considered an election. Plenty of foreign bookmakers, however, are capitalizing on what they say could be the biggest moneymaker ever outside of sporting events.

"We are expecting this pope betting to be the biggest round of non-sporting betting in Paddy Power history -- it's a big market," spokesman Rory Scott says. "It's going to pick up as we head into conclave, and we think it will reach about $7 million dollars."

Paddy Power offers betting on who will be the next pope, his age, his nationality, what his papal name will be, when the conclave will start, how long it will last, and even when the first foreign visit will take place.

Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana is the favorite with odds of 11-4.

"He is screeching ahead at the moment," Scott says. "But there is a saying, 'He that enters the conclave as pope leaves as cardinal.'"

Next in line:

*Archbishop Angelo Scola of Italy with odds of 3-1
*Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada with odds of 6-1
*Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone of Italy with odds of 6-1
*Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco of Italy with odds of 8-1
*Cardinal Leonardo Sandri of Argentina with odds of 12-1

The next papal name is the most popular alternative market, and the name Peter is the front-runner.

Bettors seem to think that the new pope will be young and have backed 65 or under into 15-8 from 5-2, Paddy Power reports. Contenders in this category: Ouellet, Turkson and New York's Cardinal Dolan.

All of the betting fun - legally - has to take place abroad.

"It's not legal in the United States," American Gaming Association spokeswoman Holly Wetzel says. "Sports books in Nevada are not taking bets on the pope. Some cite the illegality of taking bets on elections; some say it's a matter of taste."

It is also illegal for people within the USA to place bets with foreign Internet bookmakers, Wetzel says.

But that might not stop some small-time fun.

"Office pools are kind of a gray area that don't fall under regulations," Wetzel says. "Technically, in some states, it's illegal, but nobody goes after those kind of things. It varies by states, but it's legal as long as the person organizing it doesn't take a cut."

For no cash at all, the Religion News Service offers the "Sweet Sistine," papal brackets with RNS' guesses for the top candidates from each continent. Editor Kevin Eckstrom says the feature has already gotten 12,000 hits.

Papal-wagering is nothing new.

"There is a long history of betting on the pope," says James Martin, a Jesuit priest in New York and editor at America, the national Catholic magazine. "Unofficial betting has probably been going on since as long as there were conclaves."


Donna Libretti Cooke
Professional Associate, Public Affairs
U.S. Mission to the UN Agencies
Via Boncompagni, 2
00187 Rome
+39.06.4674.3537
BB cell: +39.335.183.5881
Fax +39-06-4674-3516

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