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By Elena Schneider | 01/28/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SMOOTH SAILING - "Assume reelection safe: Grassley coasting amid Iowa chaos," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "In Chuck Grassley's last six years in the Senate, he's seen fellow Republicans get swept up in rancorous primaries. The 35-year senator has watched veteran colleagues from swing states lose reelection as political polarization overwhelmed years of popular service. And in Grassley's own backyard, Iowa's tumultuous Republican presidential caucuses are coming down to two outsiders: Donald Trump, the 'chaos candidate,' and Ted Cruz, the tea party personified in the Senate. Yet amidst it all, Grassley is coasting to a seventh Senate term in the classic swing state, unchallenged by
Republicans and untouchable to Democrats." More here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=05f7b984b636f10271b6066d3fe460df6b6669b1de5bd5c5f4bea712d2075102

HOUSE OUTSIDE GROUPS PREPARE TO SET THE TONE - "GOP groups prepare February spending blitz for first congressional primaries," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "While the Iowa caucuses grab the headlines, influential Republican outside groups have quietly started plotting strategy and spending for another upcoming wave of elections: the first set of congressional primaries ... Next week's campaign finance deadline will give groups like the Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce important data to gauge just how competitive some of these primaries are before the sprint to March." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=05f7b984b636f102af8f919747e4f7abd4a33bc05f04d29df9e9cffab557b507

"Teachout may propose 'People's Pledge' in NY-19," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=05f7b984b636f102c16f771a2a1969303628a1a1746df9ab8a8af4d042d2e3a2

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 4. Days until the 2016 election: 285.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Yeezus: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

FIRST IN SCORE: BROWN, IVEY KNOTTED IN MD-4 POLL - A new poll from former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey's campaign has him and former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown within the margin of error at the top of the field for the Democratic primary in April. Brown has 34 percent of the vote to Ivey's 30 percent, with Del. Joseline Pena-Melnyk earning nine percent and Del. Dereck Davis with four percent. But in Prince George's County, the home base of all four candidates and the biggest population center in the district, Ivey leads with 34 percent to Brown's 31 percent. Both of the leading vote-getters are popular, but Ivey's unfavorables are only at 7 percent to Brown's 14 percent.
In a memo, Ivey pollster Ron Lester describes Davis and the EMILY's List-endorsed Pena-Melnyk as "non-factors," with both candidates' name recognition below thirty percent. The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted on January 23 and 24. See the memo here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=da5afeda5ce6c49eb795abc5abc6c7a3d8898b222451d4517b6a1daab340e05a

MARK YOUR CALENDARS - New Marquette poll today: Marquette University Law School will release its latest survey Thursday at 1:15 p.m. Eastern, covering the Wisconsin Senate race, April 5 presidential primaries, Gov. Scott Walker's job performance, and more.

ONLINE ADS - Senate Majority PAC's digital campaign hits Ohio next: The Democratic super PAC is following up its anti-Pat Toomey and anti-Joe Heck digital ads with ones focused on entitlements against Sen. Rob Portman in Ohio, part of a $1.5 million campaign. Portman's own campaign has been especially active on digital this cycle, hitting Democrat Ted Strickland's record as a House member and governor.

MORE FOURTH QUARTER NUMBERS - North Carolina: Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper raised more than $2.9 million in the second half of 2015, with more than $4.9 million in cash on hand, his campaign said.

- More North Carolina: Democrat Deborah Ross, who's challenging GOP Sen. Richard Burr, raised $586,000 since she announced her candidacy in mid-October, ending the year with $452,000 in cash on hand, her campaign said.

- IL-17: Rep. Cheri Bustos, a Democrat, raised $458,000 in the fourth quarter, ending with just under $1.5 million in cash on hand, her campaign said.

- MN-07: Peterson raises $105,000 in the fourth quarter, ending the year with $347,000 in cash on hand, according to the FEC filing. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=da5afeda5ce6c49e96cd6b2ae2e949365e3b3615d7b64d02ceb2c90e82b16503

POLLING DATA IN PENNSYLVANIA - The outcome could play a major role in who controls the Senate, but there has been little public data on Pennsylvania's Democratic Senate primary so far. According to a new autkomated survey from GOP firm Harper Polling, former Rep. Joe Sestak and Katie McGinty, Gov. Tom Wolf's former chief of staff, start 2016 in a close contest, though a large portion of Democratic voters remain undecided. Sestak won support from 33 percent of Democrats in the poll, ahead of McGinty's 28 percent and 11 percent for Braddock Mayor John Fetterman. Another 28 percent of respondents said they were undecided. ...See the full results of the survey here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=da5afeda5ce6c49ee91ce9b7e93e988c064698001b4547093b852c23a50e345f

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Senate GOP grieves over Trump, Cruz as nominee," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Seung Min Kim: " ... Collectively, the Senate Republican Conference is undergoing the five stages of grief as it grapples with the growing possibility of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz at the top of their ticket - a predicament that many of them believe would result in sweeping losses for their party in November. Not a single senator has endorsed either candidate, and the universe of potential Cruz or Trump supporters in the chamber can be counted, at this point, on one hand. ... As painful as it is for many of them, Republicans are coming around to the idea that Trump or Cruz may well be
their nominee." politi.co/1OZAy4J

- "With no Trump, Cruz goes from hunter to hunted," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher in Des Moines, Iowa: "Hollow or not, Donald Trump's threat to boycott the final GOP forum before Iowa votes has complicated Ted Cruz's game plan, forcing the Texan to prepare for two different debates - one in which he tangles directly with the front-runner and another that sets the senator up as the largest target on stage. With hours until debate time, Cruz's campaign still says it thinks Trump's pledge to skip the forum is a stunt." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=da5afeda5ce6c49e9f96d2af9c5a223ae8e3b095b24efcb76d4270d1d8972ee0

- INBOX: Keep the Promise super PACs, backing Cruz, issued a statement Wednesday night, challenging Trump to an hour-long one-on-one debate in Iowa "on or before Sunday." If Trump accepts, the PACs pledged to donate $1.5 million to veterans charities.

- "Donald Trump, it's always about control," by the Washington Post's Jenna Johnson: " ... At every turn, the GOP presidential front-runner tries to be the top boss. He rarely puts himself in situations where he's not in control - and Thursday night's Reublican debate in Des Moines was shaping up that way. So he backed out, sending the network into a frenzy and putting him in control of the conversation again. Trump once again became the boss. His staff is now hastily throwing together a Thursday night rally in Des Moines that could overshadow a major debate in the works for months. His devoted followers have promised to boycott Fox News, hurting ratings to support their candidate."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=da5afeda5ce6c49e1f08cd0a4ba3d3bbbd6610a41c609b834d708c133fd09c02

LIVE FROM BRUSSELS: SAFE HARBOR, EU BAILOUTS AND A BELGIAN ALE: Do you have access to in-depth reporting about big decisions shaping the EU? POLITICO Pro, POLITICO's premium subscription service, teamed up with POLITICO Europe to bring you Pro's Europe Brief. Europe Brief draws on POLITICO resources in both Brussels and D.C. to provide you with the updates and analysis you need to stay a step ahead of of all things happening across the pond. Try it for free! Download a complimentary issue of Europe Brief today.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I submit to you that you need to change and get away from the personal," said Bill O'Reilly in an interview with Donald Trump, pleading with him to reconsider his rejection of Thursday night's GOP debate, POLITICO reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=da5afeda5ce6c49e298b69ad72a06117df2827bb951e743a46a011f490c75c46

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