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02/02/2016 08:33 AM EDT


By Rachael Bade (rbade@politico.com or @RachaelMBade)

CRUZ TRUMPS IOWA. Those helicopter rides for the kids at the Iowa State Fair just weren't enough for Donald Trump. After completing the "Full Grassley," visiting all 99 state counties in the Hawkeye State, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) sling-shotted passed the billionaire businessman for the victory in Iowa. He garnered 28 percent to Trumps' 24 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) coming in just a sliver behind, at 23 percent.

On the Hill: From no friends to cool-kid? Let's face it: Cruz has never been Miss Congeniality in the Senate, what with his constant support of antics that have included holding government funding hostage to get his way on conservative issues. But will his Senate colleagues start seeing him differently now that he's edging out their worst nightmare Trump? If Cruz's victory speech last night was any signal, then maybe not: He bashed the GOP Washington "establishment" left and right, blasting Washington for failing to listen to grassroots.

Conservative groups eye ultimate triumph in Cruz. Burgess with the read: "Washington's cabal of influential conservative groups has had its share of setbacks in recent years. The 2013 government shutdown, disastrous challenges to establishment lawmakers, the recent spate of bipartisan dealmaking in Congress last year - those were just a few of the lowlights. But now the likes of Heritage Action for America and the Club for Growth are smelling victory in the Republican presidential primary - possibly the ultimate victory. Ted Cruz as the GOP nominee would be the literal embodiment of their uncompromising legislative vision and divisive tactics." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246cf221786285a8ddc0c40d8b37f856ea104ebc17e7c3c126a

RUBIO'S BIG NIGHT, TOO. "Marco Rubio Likely to Cement Backing From Republican Establishment," Beth Reinhard and Rebecca Ballhaus for WSJ: "Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's strong showing in the Iowa caucus is expected to consolidate support for him from the establishment wing of the Republican Party, which had begun leaning his way in the last few months. Support is likely to escalate for Mr. Rubio from donors, elected officials and other prominent Republicans who see the Florida senator as their best hope to defeat Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. These Republicans view Mr. Cruz as an uncompromising ideologue willing to shut down the government to get his way, while they question Mr. Trump's
conservative principles. Both are criticized as too extreme to build winning national coalitions that would expand the GOP's reach to women, minorities and young people." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246e8f12af3d972b90e684feab5802f699beaab1796f2500cc2

Coming Today - Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will endorse Rubio, joining his good friend Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), the Benghazi chairman who has done the same. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac191824625aa0f17e3b94cb7268504671923d851e59e55e39380bb5c

Where's Rand? At the bottom. CNN's Manu Raju on Twitter: "Rand Paul once thought he could win Iowa but got just 4%; officials say he will continue onto New Hampshire."

FOR THE DEMS: CLINTON EKES OUT A VICTORY, BUT SANDERS HASN'T CONCEDED. Talk about close: 49.9 percent to 49.6 percent. It was never supposed to be that way, from the Clinton perspective. "How Iowa went wrong for Hillary Clinton: Her vaunted field organization performed as expected. But she didn't," Annie Karni and Glenn Thrush with the read: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246b71abc766dac4c04f9757420fa5c944ae3560cdf45b91cdc Some would argue of course that Sanders won in his own right... "For Bernie, the revolution has begun. Aboard Bernie Sanders' campaign plane, the senator talks of taking 'a giant step' forward." POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti reports: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246dc1a8a934b9850f523f090c6343984660a139ecbecd7b080

Huddle thought bubble: Could Sanders have won had he dogged Clinton for her controversies? He's always been standoffish on the email scandal, even giving her a boost on national TV during the first debate by saying the email issue is silly - though his recent comments that it's a "serious" issue have suggested a slight change in tone on the matter. On the one hand, Sanders could have run with it, arguing that the FBI's involvement show poor judgment on Clinton's part in using her own private server. But on the other, his current above-the-fray status on the matter endears him to the far left. At any rate, Jeff Weaver, his Iowa campaign manager, had this to say on the matter on CNN last
night: "We'll let the emails deal with themselves."

GROUNDHOG DAY. IT'S FEB. 2, 2016. Thanks for reading Huddle, where we're feeling a bit bad for you lawmakers given the message Iowa sent last night: People from heartland America really don't like you. Reachable here: rbade@politico.com, or Tweet: @RachaelMBade.

TODAY IN CONGRESS: The House will vote between 2:15 p.m. and 3:15 p.m. Last votes expected: 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Senators gather for caucus lunches from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m., with a series of roll calls skedded for 2:30 p.m.

GROUNDHOG VOTES. The House will vote today on legislation repealing Obamacare for the umpteenth time - this one to specifically override Obama's veto of the reconciliation bill. Plus, they'll do a repeat of the vote to bar the Obama administration from lifting sanctions on Iran after more than 100 members were tardy for the vote.

AROUND THE HILL: At 10:15 a.m., Democratic Caucus Chair Xavier Becerra, vice chair Hoe Crowley will gather for a post-meeting media availability while Speaker Paul Ryan and other GOP leaders do the same after conference. At 11 a.m. House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer holds pen and pad briefing. And the Republican Study Committee (RSC) will kick off its budget writing process Tuesday, when the RSC's budget and spending task force, chaired by Rep. Marlin Stutzman, meets for the first time.

ACROSS TOWN... President Barack Obama, Speaker Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are meeting in the Oval Office to discuss host of issues coming down the pipeline. Obama and Ryan will then have a one-on-one luncheon for the first time Tuesday, an idea they discussed during omnibus negotiations at the close of 2015.

What they'll be discussing: McConnell angst on bipartisan votes? Alex Bolton for The Hill: "McConnell (R-Ky.), seeking to protect his majority in a tough cycle for Republicans, is leaning toward holding back several measures that have bipartisan support but are divisive in his conference. McConnell, who will meet in the Oval Office on Tuesday with President Obama and Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), is under pressure from some in his conference to take action this year on a sweeping Pacific Rim trade deal, criminal justice reform legislation and an authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Others in McConnell's conference are not keen
to tackle any of those issues, however, and Senate GOP sources say McConnell is likely to take the safe route and not advance any bills that divide his ­conference." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246b92809c0a15d472221c5cc15245b8f0126bbb39ea1ce72a2

Meanwhile... "Republicans press for criminal justice overhaul," per our Seung Min Kim: "Senate Republicans backing a criminal justice overhaul bill are circulating a letter highlighting support from top law enforcement officials as conservative opposition threatens to derail the measure's prospects this year.... The new letter was signed by Texas Sen. John Cornyn, the second-ranking Senate Republican; Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Utah Sen. Mike Lee and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Recently, conservatives such as Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) have increasingly criticized the legislation, which passed the Judiciary Committee in October."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246a2e36af9a8680f63915806e5c9bd0f2050fedc1b39c80314

REPUBLICAN SENATOR SINKS GOP JUDGE'S NOMINATION. It's rare, but one Obama nominee actually has some conservative bona fides - but don't expect that to help him much in the Senate these days... Seung Min Kim again: "On paper, Dax Lopez's nomination to be a federal judge in Georgia should have been a slam dunk. He's a Latino Republican first appointed by a GOP governor, and he's strongly supported by one of conservative radio's biggest firebrands. But this is the U.S. Senate, and Lopez's nomination has been torpedoed despite his conservative bona fides, joining a stack of President Barack Obama's picks that aren't going anywhere. Lopez has run afoul of Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), who's
blocking him from a federal judgeship in the Northern District of Georgia, citing Lopez's lengthy involvement with a nonpartisan Latino state group that has nonetheless taken liberal stances on immigration policy. Perdue's home-state colleague Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson, isn't giving his blessing, either." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac1918246e84e1a61533601a2138044c421aa640c987211646c427415

GOP CLASS OF 2010 IS DESERTING THE HOUSE. The 63 farmers, small-business owners and state legislators that gave John Boehner his majority in the historical GOP take-over of the 2009 election cycle are leaving town in droves. Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan report: "In the past few months, 12 of the 45 remaining members of that historic class have announced they'll forgo election in November, marking a substantial exodus of the lawmakers that gave the GOP the majority. When the next Congress is sworn in in January 2017, the class will be just half the size it was when it was sworn in in 2011..."

"Serving in Congress simply isn't as much fun as it used to be. Even as this Republican majority turns the corner toward greater productivity, it still faces intraparty battles and has had to contend with a president of a different party. The exodus of junior members also gives more influence to the leadership. Experience matters on Capitol Hill, and the more new members there are, the more powerful the leadership becomes. And then there's fundraising. The constant dollar dash is tiresome for members. They work all day and raise money all night." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac19182464d053d6079ce4eed164f1e51fdc43f7eaf1d64d15f600d4a

McCAIN'S 'VIGOROUS' CAMPAIGN. Burgess writes in: Sen. John McCain is taking this whole competitive reelection campaign thing in stride, even as a poll this week showed he is neck-and-neck with Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. "It was fine. Shows us doing very well in the primary and listen, I expect a very vigorous campaign," he said in an interview on Monday. But is it really tied? "Other polling data we have does not show that, but you've got to take everything with utmost seriousness ... she's a serious candidate."

CUMMINGS ENDS MARYLAND SENATE SPECULATION. President Obama and Hillary Clinton's top weapon on the Hill, Oversight Ranking Democrat Elijah Cummings, said Monday he will pass on running for Senate. Cummings told Lauren he plans to file for his own re-election in the next two days, ending the months-long speculation over whether he would take on Reps. Chris Van Hollen or Donna Edwards for Sen. Barbara Mikulski's seat. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac19182462bc119b2be0ef81d34ad750679946ff21e56a6e7822b1cde

Meanwhile, some speculate if Martin O'Malley, who suspended his campaign last night amid major defeat in Iowa, could decide in the next few hours to jump into that race himself. Baltimore Sun's John Fritze on Twitter: "O'Malley has until 9 p.m. tomorrow to file for #mdsen. Just sayin..." Roll Call's Nathan Gonzales responds: "or file for Elijah Cummings House seat."

CORKER, MENENDEZ EYE NEW IRAN SANCTIONS. Karoun Demirjian for The Washington Post "Just weeks after the Iran nuclear deal took effect, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is taking fresh aim at Tehran with stepped-up sanctions to punish the Islamic Republic for aggressive non-nuclear activities. Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and at least one other senator are crafting new measures to address everything from Iran's recent ballistic missile tests to the country's human rights violations to a reauthorization of the soon-expiring Iran Sanctions Act (ISA). The measures, which are likely to come up in February, will be Congress' latest attempts to ensure President Obama punishes Tehran for bad
behavior in the wake of the now-implemented nuclear deal." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70717b9ac19182463bc9f20edb4d07a7acde625fe80a0e3d1bbcc14081f9405f

LET THE SUPERBOWL BETS (AND TRASHTALK) BEGIN. Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.) on Monday announced what surely won't be the last "friendly wager" on the upcoming Super Bowl 50. If Meadows' Carolina Panthers win, Buck will treat Meadows to a stake from local cattle. If Buck's Broncos win, Meadows will dish our North Carolina Barbecue. "They say defense wins championships, which is why I'm confident in a Broncos victory," said Buck, a former college football player himself in a statement. "I'm looking forward to sampling North Carolina Barbecue." (H/t Lauren French)

TUESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER: Shelby Boxenbaum, Rep. Matt Cartwright's legislative counsel, was the first to answer that John Quincy Adams and John Calhoun were the first president-VP pair to serve together without military experience.

TODAY'S TRIVIA: Which comes from Shelby and is specifically for Majority Leader McConnell, perhaps our most famous Huddle trivia regular - but you pros can answer too: "Mitch McConnell was interviewed by the WSJ on among other things, his trivia prowess. So this one is for him. Let's see how he does: This past November, Jenean Hampton made history when she became the first black statewide officeholder in Kentucky. In 1924 Emma Guy Cromwell became the first woman to win statewide election in Kentucky (she was however elected statewide in 1896 by a vote of the State Senate). But who was the first woman to run statewide in Kentucky? What year? And what position?" Email rbade@politico.com.

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