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By Elena Schneider | 02/09/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NEW HAMPSHIRE STAKES - DONORS RAPIDLY COALESCING IN INVISIBLE PRIMARY, via Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: Ted Cruz supporters called for conservatives to unite behind their man after his win in Iowa. Marco Rubio followers said it was time for establishment Republicans to coalesce after his strong third-place finish, too. But in fact, the two wings of the GOP already spent months uniting behind Cruz and Rubio. Iowa only accelerated the action, and New Hampshire gives both Cruz and Rubio another chance to hit the gas - and Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich a chance to slow that process.

- Both Cruz and Rubio spent the last three months of 2015 poaching other campaigns' donors and consolidating their wings of the GOP, a Campaign Pro analysis of FEC records found. Past contributors to Jeb Bush directed at least $400,000 to Rubio's campaign at the end of last year as Bush's fortunes sank and Rubio's rose, while donors who once gave to Carly Fiorina supplied at least a quarter-million dollars to Rubio, too. Old supporters of Ben Carson's flagging campaign donated at least $288,000 to Cruz's surging effort in the months before Iowa, while Rand Paul backers chipped in over $98,000 more.

- Overall, federal records show that Cruz and Rubio raided other campaigns' donors for at least around $1 million each, far more than any other candidate, in the last quarter of 2015 - and those are the most conservative estimates possible, given that FEC disclosures don't include donors who gave less than $200 and our match looked for donors with the exact same names and zip codes, which can omit some donors who use multiple addresses or nicknames.

- So in sum, donor consolidation behind Cruz and Rubio was even more powerful than the FEC disclosures can measure. That's what makes the New Hampshire primary such a critical stand for Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich, whose fundraising all slowed at the end of last year as they failed to break into the top tier of presidential contenders. A strong showing New Hampshire, where Donald Trump looks set to win but everything after that is muddled, could inject new life - and funds - into campaigns running out of both, before Rubio pulls too much establishment money.

TICKET TOPPER - "Sanders has some down-ballot Dems fretting, some shrugging," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d11946ad6907f152146e305d2d375623c9e59cb3d43e9e2c8802de2bc1a1a012

Days until the South Carolina GOP primary and Nevada Democratic caucuses: 11. Days until the 2016 election: 273.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com,krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and kcheney@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about our indispensible advice: @politicoscott,@ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer, @kyledcheney.

FIRST WAVE - Club for Growth hits TV in early House primaries: The group is launching TV and digital ad campaigns today in a pair of March 15 House primaries. In North Carolina's 2nd District, where the Club has endorsed challenger Jim Duncan, the super PAC is attacking GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers. "Congresswoman Renee Ellmers," the narrator says. "She seems nice enough. But in just five years she's become part of the problem in Washington." The ad accuses Ellmers of voting to increase the national debt by trillions and supporting "massive corporate giveaways" and ends with the slogan "Renee Ellmers: Way too liberal for North Carolina. The ad doesn't mention Duncan. Ellmers had about $415,000 in
her campaign account at the end of the year - roughly double Duncan's $212,000.

- It's also airing a positive spot supporting Warren Davidson in Ohio's 8th District, where a number of Republicans are running in the special election to fill former Speaker John Boehner's seat. "Davidson's not a political insider," the narrator says. "He served our country with distinction as an Army Ranger, started a local business that now employs hundreds." The super PAC is spending about $400,000 on each buy, according to Doug Sachtleben, a Club spokesman. The ads will run for almost two weeks.

- Watch the anti-Ellmers ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d11946ad6907f152a98c8b40fe1067237b69a090d733ce496eb5b35bc36a20a5

- Watch the pro-Davidson ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d11946ad6907f152909134e280ccb3177a14929bdc5cac1d1d9b999600d01019

- Davidson's OH-08 primary rival Tim Derickson is also putting $70,000 behind a new ad highlighting his work cleaning up ... well, messes as a dairy farmer, as an example of how he wants to roll up his sleeves in Washington. See the ad here: bit.ly/1T9FOce

GETTING THE NOD - U.S. Chamber endorses Roby in AL-02: With three weeks to go before the March 1 primary, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed GOP Rep. Martha Roby in Alabama's 2nd District. Roby is facing a challenge from Becky Gerritson, a local tea party leader, but it's unclear how much of a threat Gerritson represents. According to her Federal Election Commission report - which was filed on Monday more than a week after the deadline - Gerritson raised more than $93,000 in the fourth quarter but spent nearly all of it. She had $620.18 left at the end of the year. Roby, who's running for her fourth term, raised about $310,000 in the fourth quarter and had $884,000 in cash on hand.

- Citizens United endorses two primary challengers: Citizens United Political Victory Fund, on the other hand, will endorse Gerritson today. Alabama's congressional primary will be held on the same day as its presidential primary, and the conservative PAC tried to tap into the thirst for outsiders this year in its endorsement. "If you are planning on voting for conservative outsiders Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, or Ben Carson for president, you should also vote for fellow conservative outsider Becky Gerritson for Congress," Citizens United President David Bossie said in a statement. The PAC took the same tack in its endorsement of Russ Ramsland, a businessman challenging GOP Rep. Pete Sessions
in Texas' 32nd District.

EXITING AND ENTERING - Holcomb withdraws from Indiana Senate race, Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard reports: Former state GOP chair Eric Holcomb withdrew from the U.S. Senate race Monday, leaving Reps. Marlin Stutzman and Todd Young in a one-on-one battle. And per the Indianapolis Star later Monday, GOP Gov. Mike Pence will likely name Holcomb as his 2016reelection running mate, the Indianapolis Star reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d11946ad6907f152f2e627e09100e749f1de84d78a543c8746c2d83fa9eb0e37

- SWITCHING DISTRICTS - "GOP Rep. Randy Forbes will run for reelection in Virginia's 2nd District, where retiring Rep. Scott Rigell is backing him for the seat, after redistricting made Forbes' current 4th District overwhelmingly Democratic. Forbes made the announcement in a live Facebook video introduced by Rigell on Monday. Neither man directly addressed the district switch during the announcement."

FLINT FALLOUT - Petition to recall Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder approved, via MLive.com: It's another PR blow to the GOP governor, but the path to an actual recall remains steep, reporter Emily Lawler writes. "The approved petition is valid for 180 days after approval at the Board of State Canvassers level. To move forward it must collect 789,133 signatures in a 60-day period within that 180 day window. Doing so would then put a question before voters statewide, most likely on the state's Aug. 2 election." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d11946ad6907f152b799ff13839b898e5448c7f11acf0ea60241a5b237e1899c

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Clinton weighs staff shake-up after New Hampshire," by POLITICO's Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni: "Hillary and Bill Clinton are so dissatisfied with their campaign's messaging and digital operations they are considering staffing and strategy changes after what's expected to be a loss in Tuesday's primary here, according to a half-dozen people with direct knowledge of the situation. The Clintons - stung by her narrow victory in Iowa - had been planning to reassess staffing at the campaign's Brooklyn headquarters after the first four primaries, but the Clintons have become increasingly caustic in their criticism of aides and demanded the reassessment sooner, a source
told POLITICO. The talk of shake-up echoes what happened in 2008 - when Clinton was on the verge of sacking her campaign manager and several top communications officials - before her surprise win here bailed out her beleaguered staff." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62607a3d8bd2e01d9160735b5de66e2dbf5455cfea40b35e5e4057bbfca8a0d3

- "FBI: Clinton email probe 'ongoing,'" by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The FBI's investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server remained "ongoing" as of earlier this month, a top FBI official said in a letter filed in federal court Monday. In the new letter, made public hours before a key test in Clinton's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, FBI General Counsel James Baker was tight-lipped about the inquiry but told a senior State Department official that divulging details about the probe could undermine it." politi.co/1KC2nU7

- "Rubio struggles to find his footing," by POLITICO's Anna Palmer in Nashua, N.H.: " ... With just hours before New Hampshire begins voting, Rubio looked dead on his feet, delivering the 'low-energy' performance Trump has so effectively attached to Jeb Bush. Standing at a lectern at BAE System's headquarters Monday morning, Rubio was every bit the junior senator, giving a subdued speech on national defense and the state of play in the Middle East. ... But after a week of getting repeatedly beaten up - first by his Republican opponents for giving a canned stump speech and not engaging with the press, and then for his dismal debate performance Saturday - it's unclear he'll be able to best
Sen. Ted Cruz or the cadre of governors like John Kasich, who have spent significant time campaigning here. And the donors who had been looking favorably at Rubio's camp have become less enthusiastic after his debate performance Saturday, when he froze up and awkwardly repeated one of his talking points on President Barack Obama's agenda to change the country." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d11946ad6907f152dd569de7ff56c343aee3c2660b94ae6caebe0351acca0704

- "Bloomberg says he is eying 2016 run for the White House," by the Financial Times' Oliver Ralph, Demetri Sevastopulo and Matthew Garrahan: "Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire media owner and former New York mayor, has stated for the first time that he is considering a run for US president, a move that would dramatically reshape the 2016 race for the White House. ... He said that he was "looking at all the options" when asked whether he was considering putting his name forward." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62607a3d8bd2e01d1e0768988feca2143ebc124aa6c983f11f5833fac103ffa3

- OFF MESSAGE ON THE TRAIL: JEB BUSH IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. The candidate takes a momentary pause from the political fight of his life to sit down with Glenn Thrush for the latest episode of the Off Message podcast. Bush reflects on what it's like running for president and his plans after New Hampshire, calls out his brother's White House aides, and levels his sharpest criticisms yet at his one-time friend Marco Rubio. Listen to the full interview here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62607a3d8bd2e01dba9ddf81c76865846749e50defa493ca677880cb517c9e2a and get every episode by subscribing to the podcast on iTunes http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62607a3d8bd2e01d7debc228aae9f69481518ebacfb10f2818fdc987d481329a or SoundCloud http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62607a3d8bd2e01dde4d93169aefba3621bbd8a3309f9ad8cdf45d2422b35a19

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "When the exact same problems crop up in separate campaigns, with different staff, at what point do the principals say, 'Hey, maybe it's US?'" - David Axelrod. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=62607a3d8bd2e01d008f7350b8968d661e62abfffa5453c0fb39e8dd9e7c2f76

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