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POLITICO POLITICO's Morning Score, May 20, 2010 6:02 am
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Vets for Freedom backing Simmons - Poll: Whitman lead cut to nine - Scorekeepers take on PA-12 - FEC complaint hits Buck - Staten Island backs Fossella comeback - Pence returning to S.C.By: Alexander Burns
Thu 20, 2010 06:02 AM EST

THIS MORNING -- DECISION POINT: Utah Sen. Bob Bennett is expected to announce in a news conference at NRSC headquarters this morning whether he'll continue to fight for reelection as a write-in candidate after being denied his party's nomination at the Utah GOP convention earlier this month.

The Salt Lake Tribune reports: 'Bennett could announce he's going to finish out his seven months left in the Senate and ease into a comfy business or government role. He could rock the establishment and use the Republican Senate campaign arm podium to say he's not leaving without a fight. Bennett could swing his arm around challenger Tim Bridgewater -- who is in Washington this week -- and endorse him over Mike Lee. Or he could do a combination of the above. ... Speculation is rampant on what Bennett will say, but conventional wisdom seems to center on the fact that Bennett likely wouldn't use the NRSC headquarters if he were going to announce a write-in bid; NRSC boss, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Tex., has said the group will back the eventual nominee of the Utah GOP and not Bennett if he runs as a write-in.'

As Rand Paul dodges, Vito Fossella surprises and Bill Clinton still believes in a place called the Little Rock area, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

SCORE EXCLUSIVE -- SIMMONS MO': The Vets for Freedom Political Action Committee will endorse former Connecticut Rep. Rob Simmons for Senate today, giving him a boost heading into this weekend's state GOP nominating convention and underscoring Simmons's message that there's only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you. Vets for Freedom executive director Pete Hegseth will praise Simmons's decorated service in Vietnam and take aim at Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for making misleading statements about his own military record. 'Through his years of uniformed service to our country, and his continued commitment to public service, Congressman (and more importantly, Colonel) Simmons demonstrates the best of America's warrior class,' Hegseth will say. 'Colonel Simmons' record and character stand in dramatic contrast to that of Democratic candidate Richard Blumenthal. Simmons spent 19 months on the ground in Vietnam, earning two Bronze Star Medals. Blumenthal spent zero minutes on the ground in Vietnam, and then lied about it. Caught in the lie, he refused to apologize. Blumenthal is unfit to represent Connecticut, and Colonel Simmons will make sure he never makes it to Washington.'

PLUS -- BLOOD ON THE MAT: Simmons's primary rival, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, acknowledged in the most explicit terms yet that her campaign helped deliver damaging information about Blumenthal's record to the New York Times. Asked by a local Fox reporter to confirm whether her campaign had a 'role in feeding it,' McMahon replied: 'We did. We've had some role with that research, yes.'

BREAKING OVERNIGHT -- DOGFIGHT IN CALIFORNIA': Republican state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has dramatically cut into former eBay CEO Meg Whitman's lead in their state's gubernatorial primary, according to a poll released from the Public Policy Institute of California. After trailing Whitman by 50 points in March, Poizner is now back by only a nine-point gap, taking 29 percent of the vote to Whitman's 38 percent. From the PPIC analysis: 'Whitman's support has dropped at least 17 points across all demographic groups, with the sharpest declines among those who are not college graduates (29 points) and those whose annual household incomes are at least $80,000 (28 points).'

PLUS -- FIORINA HOLDS ON: The former Hewlett-Packard holds a slim lead over former Rep. Tom Campbell in California's Republican Senate primary, taking 25 percent to Campbell's 23 percent, with 16 percent going to state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. In March, Fiorina had 24 percent to Campbell's 23 percent and DeVore's 8 percent.

LIFE AFTER TUESDAY -- FORMULA WHAT? POLITICO's Jonathan Martin tackles the biggest takeaway from this week's elections: that 'Republicans proved that they haven't yet determined how to win in the sort of districts they'll need to carry to take back the majority. Paint-by-numbers attacks on Democrats as water carriers for President Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi won't cut it if the opposition doesn't have actual ties or a record connecting the candidate to the party's national leadership. It's as ineffectual as the most recent Democratic efforts to link Republicans to former President George W. Bush. ... Publicly, congressional Republicans downplayed concerns about Tuesday's results and reiterated that they were optimistic about this fall. But there is plainly some worry about how the party is approaching what should be a fruitful election cycle and, in the wake of the 8-point Pennsylvania House loss, exactly how resources should be directed. House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, standing just feet from House Minority Leader John Boehner at a news conference Wednesday, took a barely veiled shot at the leader's recent ramping up of expectations for November.'
CLINTON TO ARKANSAS: Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is getting an assist from Arkansas's biggest Democrat as she struggles to survive a runoff election against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Former President Bill Clinton will campaign in the Little Rock-North Little Rock area with Lincoln on May 28, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports, and in a statement praised her for 'fighting the special interests and standing up for Arkansas.THE NEXT WAVE -- BUCK STOPS HERE? A Colorado Republican who supports Lt. Gov. Jane Norton's Senate campaign has filed an FEC complaint against Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, alleging that the conservative primary challenger has had improper coordination with outside groups spending to promote his bid. In a message to the FEC counsel dated Tuesday and obtained by Morning Score, Charles Grice, a former official in the administration of Republican Gov. Bill Owens, charges that Buck helped steer a wealthy supporter, Hensel Phillips CEO Jerry Morgensen, and others toward third-party groups including Declaration Alliance, the Campaign for Liberty and Americans for Job Security. Grice, a supporter of former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton who is not formally affiliated with her campaign, charges that around March 2009, 'Buck informed prospective campaign consultants and others that his friend Morgensen was prepared to spend up to $1 million on Buck's anticipated U.S. Senate campaign, presumably as an independent expenditure. Morgensen, who accompanied Buck to some of these interviews, confirmed that he was planning to 'invest' one million dollars or more in Buck's Senate campaign.'

Buck adviser Walt Klein rejected the substance of the complaint as 'baseless' and called it part of an 'increasingly negative' Norton campaign push. 'The complaint is another nasty shot from the Norton campaign, apparently part of their totally negative campaign. It's nonsense, another desperate move from an establishment candidate who's campaign is dying on the vine,' he wrote in an e-mail. 'So why are they doing this? Filing bogus FEC complaints is what shaky candidates do when they can't make the connection with voters.' Read the complaint here.

THE SURGE IS WORKING: Former Nevada Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, already picking up speed in her underfunded bid for the GOP Senate nomination, won the backing of the Club for Growth Wednesday in a development that could help her overcome her rivals' financial superiority. Angle drew a shocking 25 percent of the primary vote in a Mason-Dixon poll earlier this week, putting her just five points back from frontrunner Sue Lowden, a self-funding former state party chairwoman. The Las Vegas Sun reports: 'The Lowden campaign, clearly sensing an Angle boomlet, launched what could be a devastating attack in a Republican primary, hitting her for voting to raise her legislative salary in 2001 and 2005, despite Angle's denials. [Lowden adviser Robert] Uithoven also made what will be the most important argument on behalf of Lowden: electability. 'To beat Harry Reid, you have to attract conservative Democrats and independents. Sue Lowden can do that,' he said. Angle 'has never proven her ability to win over independents in any race.''
MEET RAND PAUL: Kentucky's Republican Senate candidate launched his general election campaign Wednesday with an acrobatic dodge on a question about the Civil Rights Act. Asked on NPR if he would have supported the legislation, Paul evaded: 'I think it's confusing in a lot of cases in what's actually in the Civil Rights Case ... A lot of things that were actually in the bill I'm actually in favor of I'm in favor of -- everything with regards to ending institutional racism. So I think there's a lot to be desired in the Civil Rights -- and indeed the truth is, I haven't read all through it, because it was passed 40 years ago.'

POLITICO SCOREKEEPERS -- POST-SPECIAL EDITION: With the Democrats' strong win in Pennsylvania's special House election this week shaking conventional wisdom about the 2010 campaign, Morning Score assembled its panel of House race veterans to assess the results. Examining the meaning of the PA-12 race are former DCCC Chairmen Vic Fazio and Martin Frost, former NRCC Chairmen Tom Reynolds and Tom Cole, former DCCC executive director Karin Johanson and former NRCC spokesman Carl Forti, who's now heading up the group American Crossroads.

THE QUESTION: What's the most important thing Democrats did right in PA-12 that they can repeat in other races? What's the most important thing Republicans could do different next time, if they want a different result?

TOM REYNOLDS: 'For the DCCC, whatever you're doing, keep doing. Have Democratic governors call the special election the same day as a major Democratic Senate and governor's primary. Lure the opposition into thinking a Democratic district is competitive so you look good when you win. To the NRCC, first, special elections are just that, uniquely special. They are not primaries or general elections. Two, polling data is important but not everything. Three, an all-national campaign may need some local flair. Four, in a Democratic-leaning seat, turnout is tough enough without the Democrats stacking the special election on Democratic primary day. And five, underpromise and overperform.'

VIC FAZIO: 'It's what Jack Murtha's old buddy Tip O'Neill used to say: all politics is local. Mark Critz understood that. That was his background. He fit the district. He fit the profile of somebody in the district, interested in creating jobs. ... Certainly it was an aid to have the Senate race inducing people to go out and vote. To attribute it solely to that would be, for the Democrats maybe a good thing, for the Republicans I think a little bit delusional.'

TOM COLE: 'The best thing the Democrats did in PA-12 is pick the time and place of the battle. That is something they will not be able to do in November, even for Critz. The tactical move the Democrats did well was to 'individualize' the race. That is easy to do in specials. The NRCC did it in the Bilbray race in 2006. The GOP tried to do it again in the general election of 2006. They failed. ... In the next race the Republicans need to under promise and over perform. Boasting about taking the majority as opposed to gaining seats is a mistake. We set the bar too high in PA-12. We shouldn't do that again in the general election. Picking up 25 to 30 seats is not a failure, it is a success. We should say so.'

KARIN JOHANSON: 'Democrats, and new Congressman Mark Critz, won by using a believable economic message that fit this district and this moment. He came across to voters as local! Democrats started early drawing a contrast with Republican Burns as out-of-touch on jobs and they didn't let up. Democrats ran a turnout program that has been honed over the past three years of special elections. Burns ran a nationalized campaign featuring Speaker Pelosi and President Obama in nearly every ad. He could have been running from anywhere. It didn't work in this district; Republicans have to ask themselves where that kind of campaign is going to work.'

CARL FORTI: 'Democrats attacked and attacked hard, and didn't let this race become a referendum on Pelosi or Obama. Republicans should take away that national politics doesn't work in local races. Now, in their defense, they didn't really have a choice. Critz was a hill staffer without a record. The Democrat incumbents this fall will all have record they have to defend. But the old axiom, all politics is local, holds true.'

MARTIN FROST: 'Democrats did a number of things right in the Pennsylvania special election. First, they fielded a candidate who fit the conservative orientation of the district rather than trying to impose a more liberal, national candidate on the district. Secondly, they localized the issues and ran a first rate voter turnout effort. Republicans, on the other hand, seem determined to try to nationalize House races, running against Speaker Pelosi and President Obama. ... There was a comparable race in California in early 1998 -- a year when Democrats were supposed to lose seats -- when a superior Democratic ground game and a good Democratic candidate led to a win in a Republican leaning district. That was the special election when Lois Capps won.'

THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta:

SENATE:

KENTUCKY: Democratic Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who lost Tuesday's Senate primary to state Attorney General Jack Conway by one point, briefly indicated that he would seek a recanvass of voting machines and absentee ballots before quickly reversing his decision in the interests of party unity. The Louisville Courier-Journal reports: 'Mongiardo determined that a recanvass wouldn't change the results and felt it more important to let the party put what has become a divisive campaign behind it and look to the future.'
FLORIDA: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn't interested in supporting fellow Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist's Senate campaign, Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson said Wednesday, citing Crist's veto last month of an education overhaul bill. 'Mayor Bloomberg is very disappointed that Gov. Crist vetoed an excellent education reform bill and has no intention of endorsing him,' said Wolfson.

NORTH CAROLINA: Former Senate candidate Ken Lewis, who came in third in this month's Democratic primary with 17 percent of the vote, endorsed former rival Elaine Marshall in a June 22 runoff election for the right to face Sen. Richard Burr. Marshall's competing in the second-round vote with former state Sen. Cal Cunningham.

PENNSYLVANIA: Vice President Joe Biden issued a statement on Sen. Arlen Specter's defeat in the Democratic primary Tuesday, praising the senator's 'determination, wisdom, and skill.' Biden said he spoke to Rep. Joe Sestak on Tuesday night 'and congratulated him on his impressive victory. He will make a great candidate in the fall, and a wonderful United States Senator. I look forward to campaigning for him in Pennsylvania and celebrating his victory in November.'

HOUSE:

GA-09: After earning just four percent of the vote in last week's special election to replace former GOP Rep. Nathan Deal, former state Senate Majority Leader Bill Stephens dropped plans to run for the seat in a regularly scheduled Republican primary. Explained Stephens: 'I just think that other people are better positioned at the moment to serve in Congress.' Former Republican state legislators Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins are competing in a June 8 runoff for Deal's seat.

HI-01: Hawaii's governors -- past and present -- have gotten actively involved in Saturday's special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Neil Abercrombie, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports. Current Gov. Linda Lingle, a Republican, was featured in a robocall for Charles Djou's campaign last week, and three former Democratic governors -- Ben Cayetano, George Ariyoshi and John Waihe'e -- teamed up to bash Djou at a joint news conference over the weekend.

NY-13: The Staten Island Republican Committee voted overwhelmingly to nominate disgraced former Rep. Vito Fossella for his old job Wednesday night, in a shock decision that brought a furious response from supporters of Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, the two declared GOP candidates against Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon. Former Rep. Guy Molinari, a Grimm supporter, said: 'This is typical Vito Fossella stuff - he hides in the background and everyone else does his dirty work. ... I will be out there knocking his brains out.'

NY-23: In the world of dog-bites-man political endorsements, the Upstate New York Tea Party Group endorsed Doug Hoffman for Congress Wednesday, calling the former Conservative Party candidate a 'principled social and fiscal conservative.' The group's chairman, Mark Barie, called the decision to get behind Hoffman's second campaign a 'no-brainer.'

GOVERNORS:

FLORIDA: How seriously is state Attorney General Bill McCollum taking GOP primary rival Rick Scott? For starters, McCollum's campaign has gone from brushing off Scott to calling him an 'embarrassment' and a 'fraud.' The AG's campaign manager, Matt Williams, blasted off a fiery email to supporters this week declaring: 'This is a man who barely escaped imprisonment, whose failure in business has been portrayed on national news and around the world. He is an embarrassment. ... Rick Scott not only oversaw fraud, Rick Scott is a fraud.'

MASSACHUSETTS: Grace Ross, the activist challenging Gov. Deval Patrick in their state's Democratic primary, ended her campaign Wednesday after failing to collect the necessary signatures to make the ballot. Ross, who made a third-party bid for governor four years ago, promised to 'stay in this debate' by writing a book and staying engaged in the election.

NEW YORK: Former Rep. Rick Lazio has picked Chautauqua County Executive Greg Edwards as his running mate -- a choice fully supported by state Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long, according to the New York Daily News. Lazio, who's been outflanking party-switcher Steve Levy with Conservatives as both seek the Republican gubernatorial nomination, is the first gubernatorial candidate to settle on a candidate for lieutenant governor.

TEXAS: The state AFL-CIO is doing its part to make sure Gov. Rick Perry continues to get bad publicity over his use of $10,000-a-month temporary housing, paid for by the state of Texas, while the governor's mansion is under repair. The labor group offered Perry a new, cheaper housing arrangement Wednesday, in the form of a mobile home that rests on cinder blocks outside the AFL-CIO's Austin headquarters -- for the price of just $1 a year.

2012:

BACK TO S.C. -- CNN's Peter Hamby reports Indiana Rep. Mike Pence 'will host a fundraiser for Rep. Joe Wilson on Friday in Columbia. The Chairman of the House Republican Conference first made a splash in the Palmetto State when he spoke to the South Carolina GOP's annual Silver Elephant Banquet - the state party's biggest fundraiser - in May 2008.'

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