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Why even bother to look at polls anymore? They all had Blanche Lincoln
losing to Bill Halter...and now she's won. Whew! I'll leave it to
others to analyze the winners (Bill Clinton, DSCC, 11th-hour
discoveries of hidden reformist tendencies) and the losers (labor,
pollsters, netroots). But having spent most of the day at a conference
on financial reform, I do want to weigh in on that one.

Seems to me that one big winner tonight are proponents of tougher
financial regulations, especially fans of Lincoln's provision forcing
banks to spin off their derivatives business. The assumption until a
few minutes ago was that Lincoln would lose and her provision would
quietly get stripped in the conference committee that's about to take
place. Now that she's won--and won narrowly, and faces a very tough
race in the fall--the calculus becomes a lot tougher. It doesn't seem
like a stretch to conclude that Lincoln eeked out a win by convincing
just enough voters that she was a Wall Street scourge. If her
signature provision goes down in flames, she'll look toothless and
weak, and almost certainly lose her seat. The bank lobby and the Obama
administration (both oppose the Lincoln provision) may simply prove
too strong and do the deed anyway. But their task got a whole lot
harder. The markup conference will now get a lot more attention. That
could be tough for Lincoln. But it will be especially tough for
Democrats who wanted to kill her provision without suffering any
political damage.


Blanche Lincoln - Bill Clinton -Wall Street - Democratic Party -
Lincoln LincolnshireEric D. Schwerin
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com

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