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By Kevin Robillard | 02/02/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Zach Montellaro, Maggie Severns, Elena Schneider, and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

RECURRING REPUBLICAN NIGHTMARES - "Is Joe Arpaio the next Roy Moore?" by POLITICO Magazine's Ben Strauss in Phoenix: "Arpaio lost his Maricopa County sheriff's race in 2016 by double digits to a Democrat in a Republican stronghold that accounts for around 60 percent of the votes cast in the state. And yet one recent poll put Arpaio neck and neck with [GOP Senate candidate Martha] McSally, and ahead of [Kelli] Ward. He has national fundraising prowess, off-the-charts name recognition and an innate understanding of the Republican base. He's tight with [President Donald] Trump. His campaign message - I'm a martyr of the Obama administration's Justice Department - threatens to resonate deeply
with Republican primary voters. If the White House continues discussing amnesty for DREAMers, 'the right will look for rallying points,' a source familiar with Trump's thinking [said]. 'And one will be Sheriff Joe.' The hope inside the McSally campaign and among her establishment backers is that Arpaio paves the way for her to win in the August primary by splitting the tea party vote with Ward. Be careful what you wish for, [local GOP Chairman Paul] Marchant suggested. 'There are McSally people cheering this on, but it's dangerous," Marchant said. 'There's a real sense he could win the primary and 'Roy Moore' us.'"

"Arpaio doesn't demonstrate much interest in policy - trade or the deficit or health care - aside from the broad strokes of the Trump agenda. 'I agree with him - keep the factories here, keep the jobs here,' he said. He [said] he does not support citizenship for DREAMers, and he isn't convinced the president does either. 'I want to see the blood signature,' he said. 'He has a way of changing his opinion, right?' As for what he might say to appeal to Democrats, Arpaio [said] he had an excellent record of fighting animal cruelty. ... When [Strauss] later suggested that the presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, would be an interesting opponent in the general election, he asked
why. [Strauss] mentioned that she had a liberal background and would be the first openly bisexual senator. 'Bisexual? Is that when they like both?' Arpaio asked. He shook his head and said, 'She's not more interesting than me.'" Full story.

THE VP'S 2018 PLANS - "Behind Pence's plan to rescue the Republican majority in 2018," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer: "Vice President Mike Pence is launching one of the most aggressive campaign strategies in recent White House history: He will hopscotch the country over the next three months, making nearly three dozen stops that could raise tens of millions of dollars for House and Senate Republicans, all while promoting the party's legislative accomplishments. ... The vice president's team has devised a unique ancillary strategy to support his cross-country campaigning: partnering with America First Policies - a Trump-backed public policy nonprofit group designed to boost the
president's agenda - to hold public events designed specifically to discuss legislative achievements like the tax bill." Full story, including some of the states where he plans to campaign.

- Pence on the GOP's 2018 chances: "If we frame that choice, I think we're going to re-elect majorities in the House and the Senate and I actually think we're going to, when all the dust settles after 2018, I think we're going to have more Republicans in Congress in Washington, D.C., than where we started."

RECRUITMENT WATCH - "Scott takes big step toward Florida Senate challenge," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo and Matt Dixon: "In the clearest sign he's ready to challenge Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida Gov. Rick Scott has raised more than $1.1 million for a super PAC he recently revived and stocked it with top consultants from his previous campaigns. Privately, he's talked up his good polling numbers, according to several supporters who have spoken to Scott recently. The term-limited governor said Tuesday that he'll make up his mind about the race after the March 9 end of his last regular 60-day legislative session as governor. Scott won't say which way he's leaning, but some of
those familiar with the governor's thinking peg the likelihood of him running between 80 and 95 percent." Full story,

SUNDAY PREVIEW - Tim Phillips breaks down Koch network's 2018 plans: Phillips, president of the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity, talks to POLITICO's Maggie Severns and Bloomberg's Bill Allison on C-SPAN's "Newsmakers" this week. Some highlights:

- About that $400 million: Of the $400 million that the Koch network set as its upper budget for the midterms, a significant share has already been spent, Phillips said. Here's the breakdown: "[The $400 million] number includes both '17 and '18, you're exactly right. And it also includes policy efforts," Phillips said. "We've probably spent about 35, 40 percent of that in 2017." The $400 million figure also includes state-level efforts.

- On entitlement reform: Among other policy pushes, Americans for Prosperity is urging lawmakers to tackle Medicaid reform this year. "We've urged them even now, this year, let's take some reforms and try to provide a better service on Medicaid, but also reduce spending," Phillips said. "I wish they would - I don't see evidence of them doing it yet, but I wish they would do that," he later added.

- On Trump: Would the Koch network support the president's reelection bid? "We haven't even discussed 2020. Let's get through '18," Phillips said. "I will say this though: This president had one of the most productive years for a president on actually broadening opportunity and genuine freedom of any president going back to [Ronald] Reagan."

GOING UP - Pensler launches ad buy in Michigan: Republican Senate candidate Sandy Pensler, who said earlier this month he had put $5 million of his own money into a campaign, has started purchasing broadcast airtime beginning on Feb. 4, according to Advertising Analytics.

Days until the 2018 election: 277

Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

FINAL, FINAL Q4 TOTALS

- CA-50: Rep. Duncan Hunter only raised just over $50,000 and has just $290,000 in the bank, the Los Angeles Times reports.

- VA-07: Democrat Dan Ward raised $280,000 last quarter with $420,000 in cash on hand.

- VA-10: Democrat Alison Friedman raised $360,000 last quarter.

- CA-SEN: Sen. Dianne Feinstein holds a massive fundraising advantage over state Senate President Kevin de Leon, raising $1 million and kicking in $5 million of her own money compared to his $500,000, The Sacramento Bee reports.

- TX-SEN: Texans Are, a super PAC allied with Sen. Ted Cruz, raised $1.7 million, The Texas Tribune reports.

- PA-SEN: Rep. Lou Barletta raised $500,000 for Pennsylvania's Senate race, the Washington Examiner reports, and has $1.1 million on hand.

- IN-06: Greg Pence raised $565,115 for his campaign to take the House seat his brother, the vice president, once held, the Indianapolis Star reports. Businessman Jonathan Lamb, the other candidate in the GOP primary, raised $582,638, most of it in personal loans.

- IL-03: Marie Newman, who is challenging Rep. Dan Lipinski in the Democratic primary, has about $237,000 on hand compared to Lipinski's $1.7 million, the Chicago Tribune reports.

WEB WARS - FIRST IN SCORE - Hawley campaign hits McCaskill on Groundhog Day: Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley is out with a new Groundhog Day-themed digital ad criticizing Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill as "more of the same." The ad attacks McCaskill for voting against Trump's tax reform law and for voting against Judge Neil Gorsuch's nomination. Watch the ad here.

NOT T-PAWING AROUND - Pawlenty taking serious look at Minnesota governor's race: Tim Pawlenty, who ruled out a run for Senate earlier this month, is weighing a bid for his old job. Brian McClung, a former top aide to Pawlenty, confirmed Pawlenty is meeting with top donors on Feb. 12 to discuss a potential gubernatorial bid. "Governor Pawlenty is considering running for governor and will be talking with Minnesotans over the coming weeks to assess support and gather advice," McClung said. Minnesota Public Radio first reported the meeting.

SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - "Lesko, Montenegro leading special GOP primary for Franks' seat," via ABC15: "The poll from OH Predictive Insights shows state Sens. Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro both receiving 21 percent support in the primary to fill the seat vacated by Trent Franks [if it were] held today. Phil Lovas, a former state lawmaker and Arizona chairman of President Trump's 2016 campaign, was third with 12 percent support." Full story.

$250,000 BABY - "DNC exaggerated how much it spent to defeat Roy Moore," by McClatchy's Alex Roarty: "After [Doug] Jones defeated Republican and accused pedophile Roy Moore, the DNC said it had quietly spent $1 million constructing a voter-outreach effort for the Democrat, including an extensive campaign of text messages, phone calls, and door-knockers. Now, faced with documentation that questions the claim, DNC officials say the committee spent only $250,000 of its own money on the race, cash that funded more than two dozen staffers on the ground in the state who, among other things, conducted extensive outreach to African-American voters. The rest - nearly three-quarters of the total
funds originally claimed - was not a direct injection of DNC money but instead cash the DNC raised on behalf of Jones through email solicitations." Full story.

- "DNC hires Mary Beth Cahill as interim CEO," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti and Edward-Isaac Dovere: "The Democratic National Committee has hired Mary Beth Cahill as its interim CEO, replacing - at least temporarily - Jess O'Connell, who stepped down in a surprise on Monday. Cahill is best known as one of the presidential campaign managers for John Kerry in 2004. She was also an executive director of EMILY's List and worked for a number of other top Democratic politicians, including the late Sen. Ted Kennedy." Full story.

ON THE AIR - "Black to air pregame ad urging Super Bowl viewers in Tennessee to stand for anthem," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Rep. Diane Black's Tennessee gubernatorial campaign says it will air an ad during the Super Bowl pregame show urging viewers to stand for the national anthem before the game. In the 30-second ad, 'Patriotic,' Black, talking directly into the camera, says, 'All year, players refuse to stand for the anthem, and the league refused to air an ad from the American veterans, urging everyone to please stand.' 'But they can't stop you and me,' the Republican continues as the hashtag '#pleasestand' appears next to Black." Watch the ad here.

COMING ATTRACTIONS - @MittRomney: "Looking forward to making an announcement on February 15th about the Utah Senate race."

THE MAP - "Can the voting power of fast-growing Dane County help Democrats win statewide elections again?" by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert: "Fueled by a tech boomlet, Dane is adding people at a faster rate than any county its size between Minnesota and Massachusetts. Between 2015 and 2016, it accounted for almost 80% of Wisconsin's net population growth and is now home to more than 530,000 people. ... What's going on in Dane County is gradually altering the electoral math in Wisconsin. Dane has been growing about four points more Democratic with each presidential contest since 1980, while adding thousands more voters every year. As a result, it packs an ever stronger
political punch. Democrats won the county's presidential vote by a margin of roughly 20,000 votes in 1984, 50,000 votes in 1996, 90,000 votes in 2004 and almost 150,000 votes in 2016." Full story.

- "A 'Blue' Florida? There Are No Quick Demographic Fixes for Democrats," by the New York Times' Nate Cohn: "As many as 300,000 people have fled to Florida from Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. And a ballot initiative this November could return the vote to the state's estimated 1.5 million discharged felons. At first glance, either tally of these two Democratic-leaning groups would seem to dwarf Donald J. Trump's 113,000-vote margin of victory in the state in 2016. But the reality for Democrats is that neither development is likely to fundamentally alter Florida's political character heading into the 2020 election. The main reason? The electoral effect dwindles after
accounting for the relatively low turnout rates among these groups." Full story.

REDISTRICTING WATCH - "Sen. Scarnati refuses Pa. Supreme Court order to turn over map data in gerrymander case," by The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Lai: "State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati said Wednesday he would not turn over any data requested by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in the wake of the gerrymandering ruling that Republicans have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review. ... In a letter to the court, Scarnati's lawyers said he would not do so, repeating an argument they have made in the petition to the U.S. Supreme Court: The state court is overstepping its authority." Full story.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Dad's drunk again but we don't talk about it." - Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Charlie Dent, comparing the Republican Party to a "dysfunctional family."

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