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By Elena Schneider | 02/05/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS - More than 40 House Republicans trailed opponents in fourth-quarter fundraising, and more than a dozen of those incumbents hold less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers. That's the top finding in POLITICO's analysis of House campaign finance reports form the fourth quarter.

- Incumbents outraised by challengers: Democrats in 45 districts brought in more money than the Republican incumbents in the fourth quarter. Of that group, nine members were outraised by more than one Democratic opponent.

- The full list of GOP incumbents outraised by Democrats: Doug LaMalfa (CA-01), Tom McClintock (CA-04), Paul Cook (CA-08), Steve Knight (CA-25), Mimi Walters (CA-45), Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48), Duncan Hunter (CA-50), Mike Coffman (CO-06), Daniel Webster (FL-11), Vern Buchanan (FL-16), Francis Rooney (FL-19), Rod Blum (IA-01), Steve King (IA-04), Mike Bost (IL-12), Jackie Walorski (IN-02), Jim Banks (IN-03), Trey Hollingsworth (IN-09), Andy Harris (MD-01), Jack Bergman (MI-01), Fred Upton (MI-06), Tim Walberg (MI-07), Mike Bishop (MI-08), Jason Lewis (MN-02), Ann Wagner (MO-02), Robert Pittenger (NC-09), Ted Budd (NC-13), Tom MacArthur (NJ-03), Chris Smith (NJ-04), Leonard Lance (NJ-07), Lee
Zeldin (NY-01), Pete King (NY-02), John Faso (NY-19), Claudia Tenney (NY-22), Bob Gibbs (OH-07), Ryan Costello (PA-06), Lloyd Smucker (PA-16), Mark Sanford (SC-01), Ralph Norman (SC-05), Phil Roe (TN-01), John Carter (TX-31), Mia Love (UT-04), Tom Garrett (VA-05), Dave Brat (VA-07), Glenn Grothman (WI-06) and David McKinley (WV-01).

- Four Democratic incumbents were outraised by GOP opponents: Jim Himes (CT-04), Lois Frankel (FL-21), Bill Keating (MA-09) and Matt Cartwright (PA-17).

- Incumbents with less cash on hand than challengers: Thirteen Republicans have less cash on hand than their leading Democratic challengers: McClintock (CA-04), Rohrabacher (CA-48), Hunter (CA-50), King (IA-04), Pittenger (NC-09), Budd (NC-13), Faso (NY-19), Tenney (NY-22), Smucker (PA-16), Norman (SC-05), Garrett (VA-05), Brat (VA-07) and Grothman (WI-06).

- Members outraised by primary challengers: Marie Newman outraised Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL 03) in fundraising last quarter, but Lipinski still holds an advantage in cash on hand. Primary challengers against two New York City Democratic members - Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney - beat them in fundraising last quarter. North Carolina Rep. Walter Jones was the only Republican member who raised less money than his primary challenger, Scott Dacey. Dacey, a Craven County Commissioner, also holds more cash on hand than Jones.

- Self-funders: Through candidate loans and contributions, 24 candidates seeded their campaigns with at least $250,000 in the fourth quarter. Self-funders are evenly split between the two parties: 12 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Kathaleen Wall, a member of the Harris County Republican Party Candidates Committee, donated a whopping $2.7 million to her campaign to replace Texas Rep. Ted Poe in a conservative seat. Wall is running against eight primary opponents.

- A list of self-funders who gave their campaigns $250,000 or more, listed biggest to smallest: Kathaleen Wall (TX-02), David Trone (MD-06), Sara Jacobs (CA-49), Gil Cisneros (CA-39), Holly Lynch (NY-10), John Ward (FL-06), Nick Taylor (TX-03), Harley Rouda (CA-48), Harry Arora (CT-04), Jonathan Lamb (IN-06), Steve Lonegan (NJ-05), Paul Kerr (CA-49), Tahir Javed (TX-29), Perry Gershon (NY-01), Andy Thorburn (CA-39), Mark Green (TN-07), Michael Allman (CA-52), Rick Walker (TX-02), Abhijit Beej Das (MA-03), Kevin Roberts (TX-02), David Richardson (FL-27), Kurt Jetta (FL-21), Sean Casten (IL-06) and John Rose (TN-06).

FOURTH QUARTER ROUNDUP - "Panic time: Democratic cash swamps House Republicans," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "For the GOP, here's the really disturbing part: The trendline is getting worse, not better. Despite the myriad advantages of incumbency and control of Congress, there are more House members with less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers than the quarter before. ... Republicans, despite a recent uptick in the polls since the beginning of the year, face significant structural challenges, the fundraising figures show. A slew of recent retirements in expensive media markets, like New Jersey and California, will force Republicans to spend more to defend open seats as
they bid farewell to well-funded incumbents. But Republicans believe that the tax bill - passed in late December, so too late to impact these financial reports - will help them rebound in the first quarter of 2018." Full story.

- CAMPAIGN PRO'S FULL HOUSE FEC CHART: Find it here.

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS - "Democrats, Republicans lead in their own strongholds: A key to midterm outcomes," by ABC News' Sofi Sinozich: "The wide Democratic advantage in congressional vote preference comes entirely in districts the party already holds, raising questions about the extent of its possible gains in November. Yet the closeness of the contests in GOP-held districts underscores this year's Republican vulnerability. Democrats lead by 14 points among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, a result reported previously. But that reflects a vast 38-point Democratic lead in districts already held by Democratic members of Congress. In districts the Republican Party
holds, by contrast, it's a tight 45-51 percent Democratic vs. Republican contest." Full story.

Days until the 2018 election: 274

Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - House Majority PAC targets Yoder on tax bill: House Majority PAC is going up with Valentine's Day-themed billboard in GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder's district to attack the congressman's support for the Republican tax law. The billboard, which will run for four weeks off I-670 in Kansas City, says: "This year, Kevin Yoder gave you higher taxes," with a chocolate box that reads, "tax hike." The billboard is also linked to a microsite from the group. Check it out here.

NEW THIS MORNING - "Joe Voted No" hits digital and radio: The NRSC is out with radio and digital ads building off Vice President Mike Pence's attacks on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) last week. The 60-second ads feature Pence's remarks in full. "While that might make Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi pretty happy, West Virginia needs to let him know you expect better from Joe," Pence says in the ad. Watch the digital ad here. Listen to the radio ad here.

FIRST IN SCORE - GETTING THE NOD - End Citizens United backs Andrew Janz: End Citizens United announced on Monday that it's endorsing Democrat Andrew Janz, who's hoping to challenge GOP Rep. Devin Nunes. "Andrew's decision to reject all corporate PAC money is a testament to his dedication to representing Californians," said the group's president, Tiffany Muller.

FROM THE STATES - "'Repulsive' campaign ad creates firestorm in Illinois," by POLITICO Illinois' Natasha Korecki: "A new ad that's been denounced as anti-immigrant, racist, sexist and transphobic is causing an uproar in Illinois, with leaders from both parties calling for its removal. But Republican state Rep. Jeanne Ives, whose campaign produced the ad in her primary election challenge to Gov. Bruce Rauner, is refusing to pull the spot, saying it exposes Rauner's 'betrayal' of GOP voters. The new ad mockingly thanks the governor for clearing a path in support of a series of social issues. Then it taps just about every conservative bogeyman in Illinois politics, and every lightning-rod
cultural issue." Check out the ad here. Full story.

- "Year of the woman skips California," by POLITICO California's David Siders and Carla Marinucci: "If 2018 is The Year of the Woman, nobody told California. In the biggest blue state on the map, the only woman running for governor, former state schools chief Delaine Eastin, is polling in single digits. The interim mayor of San Francisco, the first black woman to hold the post, was bounced from her position this month by the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, replaced by a white man. And in a round of caucus meetings last weekend, Democratic Party activists in three competitive Southern California House races overlooked three EMILY's List-endorsed candidates and threw their support, by
wide margins, to three men." Full story.

- "Progressives gang up on Lipinski," by POLITICO Illinois' Natasha Korecki: "Major progressive interest groups and organizations - from the powerful Service Employees International Union to EMILY's List to NARAL - are lining up behind a first-time candidate in the hopes of ousting Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.)." Full story.

DEPT. OF BIO VIDEOS - Jesse Colvin pops video in MD-01: Democrat Jesse Colvin, a former consultant who served in Afghanistan, released a bio video that explains that after Sept. 11, he joined the Army to "go towards the problem and help solve it." Colvin, a first-time candidate, raised more money than Republican Rep. Andy Harris last quarter. Check out the video here.

ICYMI - "GOP sources: Wagner taking second look at Missouri Senate race," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Rep. Ann Wagner is taking a second look at entering Missouri's Senate race, three Republican sources say. Wagner's rethinking comes after Attorney General Josh Hawley - who was heralded as a top GOP recruit when he declared his candidacy - stumbled in recent days. Her chances of ultimately entering the race are low, all three sources said. But Republicans in Missouri have approached her about reconsidering the contest, and two sources said she discussed it with other members at the GOP's congressional retreat in West Virginia this week." Full story.

POLITICS WITH YOUR FOOTBALL - "Are you ready for some campaign ads?" by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "The Iowa caucuses are still two years away, but voters there will see the first campaign ads of the 2020 presidential election during Sunday's Super Bowl. John Delaney, the Maryland congressman mounting an uphill bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, plans to run a campaign advertisement touting his bipartisan bona fides on NBC affiliates in Iowa during the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots. ... Another is Jonathan Lamb, a Republican for an open congressional seat in Eastern Indiana. Lamb has his work cut out for him: His opponent is Gregory Pence,
Vice President Mike Pence's brother." Full story.

'KICKSTARTER FOR DISTRICTS' - "Democrats Have So Many Candidates They Could Go Broke. A New Group Might Have the Fix," by Time's Charlotte Alter: "Swing Left has set up what it calls District Funds: pots of money that get donated to the Democratic nominee in a targeted race, whoever he or she is, as soon as that candidate wins the primary. So far they've raised nearly $4 million for the project from over 61,000 individual contributions. Says [Swing Left Executive Director Ethan] Todras-Whitehill: 'It's like a Kickstarter, but for districts.' This fundraising strategy has even spurred some Democrats who are competing against one another to come together and raise money that could wind up in
the coffers of their primary opponents." Full story.

- Unity in Texas: On Tuesday, all seven Democrats running in Texas' 32nd District will host a "unity fundraiser" in Dallas, organized by Swing Left, USA Today reported.

VOTING LAW - "Federal judge: Florida's felon voting restoration flawed," via The AP: "In a ruling that could reverberate in this year's crucial elections, a federal judge ruled that Florida's system of restoring voting rights for felons who have served their time is arbitrary and unconstitutional and needs to be changed as soon as possible." Full story.

STAFFING UP - Rufus Gifford as communications director: Rufus Gifford, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark who's running to replace Rep. Niki Tsongas, hired Dean Lieberman as a communications director. Lieberman most recently served as a spokesman at the State Department and as a press secretary to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well first of all, I'm running for Congress, not the chancellor of Germany. All right. To me the Holocaust is what I said it is: It's an international extortion racket." - Arthur Jones, "an outspoken Holocaust denier, activist anti-Semite and white supremacist - is poised to become the Republican nominee for an Illinois congressional seat representing parts of Chicago and nearby suburbs," The Chicago Sun-Times reported.

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