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Poll: Biden, Carson hot in swing states | TheHill

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/256132-poll-biden-carson-hot-in-swing-states

Poll: Biden, Carson hot in swing states

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continue to lead their party in three key
swing states but Ben Carson and Vice President Joe Biden prove to be the
most successful general election candidates in Florida, Pennsylvania and
Ohio.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University finds Biden topping all five of the
GOP candidates tested in the Sunshine State — Carson, former Gov. Jeb Bush
(Fla.), Carly Fiorina, Donald Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.)—and all but
Carson in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton would top three candidates in Florida—Fiorina, Trump, and
Carson—but only defeats Trump in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Sen. Bernie
Sanders (I-Vt.) only musters a victory against Trump in all three states.

On the GOP side, Carson performs the best against the three main Democratic
candidates. Outside of Florida, where he trails both Biden and Clinton,
Carson sweeps the trio in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

“When we get past the playoffs to the World Series, the general election
face-off, Biden does better against leading Republicans than does Clinton
or Sanders,” Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll,
said in a statement.

“Trump, despite his strong showing in mock Republican primaries, fares
worst among the GOP candidates matched against the three Democratic
aspirants – giving some credence to pundits who say the billionaire could
be every Democrats’ favorite GOP nominee.”

Trump and Clinton lead in all three states’ party primaries. Trump, with 23
percent support in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, leads is in the single
digits and nearly within the margin of error, while he holds a 12 point
lead in Florida. Carson takes the silver medal in those three states,
garnering support in the high teens.

Rubio polls in a close third for Florida’s GOP primary with 14 percent,
with Bush just 2 percentage points behind. When asked if there were any
candidates they wouldn’t support, 18 percent of Florida Republicans said
they wouldn’t vote for their former governor, while 9 percent said they
wouldn’t vote for their current senator.

In each of the three states, 29 percent of Republicans said they wouldn’t
consider Trump.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich wasn’t polled against the trio of Democrats, but he
stands at third for the GOP nomination in his home state, where only 7
percent of voters said they would not consider voting for him for president.

Clinton holds double digit leads in the Democratic primary in all three
states, with her largest margin 24 points in Florida over both Biden and
Sanders, with 43 percent support, and her slimmest just 11 points in
Pennsylvania over Biden, where she has 36 percent support.

The poll shows that a Biden candidacy would steal support from Clinton in a
Democratic primary.

Without Biden in the race, her support spikes, while support for Sanders
moves only a few percentage points. In Florida, Clinton's support rises
from 43 percent with Biden in the race to 54 percent without Biden; from 40
percent to 52 percent in Ohio, and from 36 percent to 51 percent in
Pennsylvania.

Although native sons, Bush and Rubio each bested Clinton by only 1
percentage point in Florida. Paired against Biden, the two Floridians fall
short by 4 or 5 percentage points in their state.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,173 Florida voters with a margin of error of 2.9
percentage points. The survey includes 461 Republicans with a margin of
error of 4.6 percentage points and 411 Democrats with a margin of error
of 4.8 percentage points.

In Ohio, 1,180 Ohio voters were polled, with a margin of error of 2.9
percentage points. The survey includes 433 Republicans with a margin of
error of 4.7 percentage points and 396 Democrats with a margin of error of
4.9 percentage points.

And 1,049 Pennsylvania voters were polled, with a margin of error of 3
percentage points. The survey includes 427 Republicans with a margin of
error of 4.7 percentage points and 442 Democrats with a margin of error of
4.7 percentage points.


Eric D. Schwerin
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com

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