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The Evening CSIS: Kremlin Playbook, Running Hot, Tangled Up in Blue & More
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** Good Evening,
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Welcome to
The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please sign up here (http://bit.ly/ecs1s) .


** The Kremlin Playbook
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With tensions between Russia and the United States at their highest since the Cold War, there have been alarming signs coming out of Moscow that suggest the country is ready for war, as ABC News’s Patrick Reevell reports (http://abcnews.go.com/International/ways-russia-telling-people-prepare-war/story?id=42800992) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Heather Conley and James Mina, and the Center for the Study of Democracy’s Ruslan Stefanov and Martin Vladimirov, yesterday released The Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe (https://www.csis.org/analysis/kremlin-playbook?block1) .


** Future of the Thai Monarchy
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The death of Thailand’s King Bhumibol, who was a unifying figure in a deeply polarized country, has cast a pall of uncertainty across the Southeast Asian nation, raising questions about the future of the monarchy itself, as the
New York Times’ Barbara Crossette reports (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/world/asia/thai-king-bhumibol-adulyadej-dies.html) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Greg Polling today authored a new Critical Questions (CSIS signature series Asked & Answered short papers): “The Passing of Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej (https://www.csis.org/analysis/passing-thailand%E2%80%99s-king-bhumibol-adulyadej?block2) .”


** Running Hot
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Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen today offered an argument for running the US economy hot for a period to ensure moribund growth doesn’t become an entrenched feature of the US business landscape, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath and David Harrison report (http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-cites-benefits-to-running-economy-hot-for-some-time-1476466215) .

Dive Deeper: In a recent Peterson Perspectives interview (https://piie.com/experts/peterson-perspectives/blanchard-discusses-policy-tools-low-growth-environment) , Olivier Blanchard discusses the need for a greater emphasis on fiscal policy to take some of the burden off central banks in dealing with weak economic growth across rich nations.


** In That Number
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** 50,000
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The number of displaced people in Somalia due to armed violence between two semiautonomous regions, the UN said on Friday. Source: Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-violence-idUSKBN12E1YG) .


** Critical Quote
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** “I think the wrong conclusion would be that public meetings in China are entirely irrelevant and that we should avoid attending them. Even if they are filled with seemingly boring recitations of official policy or heartfelt defenses of those positions, there is still a lot to learn and observe.”
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— CSIS’s Scott Kennedy on the ambiguous benefit of attending conferences in China. Source: CSIS’s “Thoughts from the Chairman (https://www.csis.org/analysis/thoughts-chairman-ambiguous-benefit-meetings-china) .”


** One to Watch
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(Photo Credit: LinkedIn.)

Joseph Marks (@Joseph_Marks_ (https://twitter.com/Joseph_Marks_/) ) has returned to Nextgov to serve as a cybersecurity correspondent. Joseph previously covered cybersecurity for POLITICO and developments in intellectual property for Bloomberg BNA.


** Optics
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(Photo credit: Safin Hamed/AFP/Getty Images.)

An Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighter looks through binoculars on the top of Mount Zardak, about 25 kilometers east of Mosul.


** Highly Recommended
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“Why the Brussels Donor Conference Should Recommit to Afghanistan (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-the-brussels-donor-conference-should-recommit-17914?page=3) ,” for the
National Interest by Earl Anthony Wayne, CSIS’s Daniel Runde, and Hena Santoro.


** CSIS Today
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CSIS’s Transnational Threats Project hosted “Libya and Security Challenges for the 2017 EU Presidency (https://www.csis.org/events/libya-and-security-challenges-2017-eu-presidency) ,” featuring Dr. Ian Borg, parliamentary secretary for the 2017 European Presidency and European Union Funding.


** CSIS Monday
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Join CSIS’s Proliferation Prevention Program for “Fukushima After 2047 Days: Current Revitalization on the Ground (https://www.csis.org/events/fukushima-after-2047-days-current-revitalization-ground) ” with the Honorable Masao Uchibori, governor of Japan’s Fukushima prefecture.


** This Town Monday
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Join AEI at 2:00 p.m. for “Elusive peace in Colombia: A conversation with Ambassador Juan Carlos Pinzón (http://www.aei.org/events/elusive-peace-in-colombia/) .”

And join the Institute of World Politics at 4:00 p.m. for “National Security Law and the Legal Challenges of Terrorism (http://www.iwp.edu/events/detail/national-security-law-and-the-legal-challenges-of-terrorism) .”


** CSIS On Demand
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Visit us on Medium (https://medium.com/@csis/7d7ae514a034) for an inside look at our events this week.


** Sounds
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Recap the Turkey coup attempt with Smart Women, Smart Power’s new podcast this week. You can listen on iTunes (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/smart-women-smart-power/id924940383) or on our website (https://www.csis.org/podcasts/smart-women-smart-power-podcast) .


** I Like It Like That
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The new cover of the New Yorker (http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/cover-story-2016-10-24) .


** Smiles
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“These songs of mine, they’re like mystery stories, the kind that Shakespeare saw when he was growing up. I think you could trace what I do back that far. They were on the fringes then, and I think they’re on the fringes now. And they sound like they’ve been on the hard ground.”

When Bob Dylan uttered these words last year during his acceptance speech for an award given by MusiCares I was stunned. Dylan had finally opened up. The notoriously elusive bard had finally admitted something about how he viewed his awe-inspiring body of work.

In 2004, Dylan published the first part of his planned three volume memoir, “Chronicles: Volume One.” I devoured the book.

In “Chronicles,” Dylan wrote about recording his 1989 comeback album “Oh Mercy” in New Orleans with producer Daniel Lanois. My friend Cyril Neville performed on the album and so did my buddy, the great Neville Brothers/Meters guitarist Brian Stoltz. I knew from Cyril and Brian that recording with him was hard work and that Dylan loved the New Orleans groove.

And Dylan lived in this funky Victorian house down the street from mine in New Orleans’ 13th Ward. The windows of Dylans’ house were boarded up so no one could see in and there were usually 3 or 4 menacing looking guys on Harley Davidson’s in the side driveway of the big house flashing their eyes at anyone who drove past and glanced in their direction.

Dylan drove a vintage black Cadillac circa 1968 (not so unusual for New Orleans in the late 80s) and he would drive up the street to the Time Saver on the corner of Prytania and Upperline to get cigarettes. I never saw him in there but my friends did.

Until Dylan published “Chronicles,” I didn’t know much about what the city of New Orleans meant to him—I could only guess. But it was “Chronicles” that Dylan captured New Orleans in a way very few authors ever have (and that includes Tennessee Williams, John Kennedy Toole and Walker Percy to name just a few.) Dylan cherished the City that Care Forgot. And his words on the pages of “Chronicles” just like his songs, sounded so alive.

I think about Bob Dylan’s words all the time. I think a lot of people do and have for over half a century. And I think 200 years from now people will still be thinking about his words because they sound and read “like they’ve been on the hard ground.”

I’m going to be smiling for a long time knowing that Bob Dylan was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature this week. Don’t you smile and hear Shakespeare in his songs? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwSZvHqf9qM)


** Feedback
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I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, Jackie Ramsay, and James Dunton.

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