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Good Evening,

Happy 2016 and welcome back to The Evening CSIS\u2014my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here [ http://CSIS.informz.net/InformzDataService/OnlineVersion/Individual?mailingInstanceId=5258578&subscriberId=1062005454 ] .

Widening Rift
Saudi Arabia widened its rift with Iran today, saying it would end air traffic and trade links with the Islamic republic and demanding that Tehran must \u201cact like a normal country\u201d before it would restore severed diplomatic relations, according to an exclusive interview Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir granted Reuters [ http://reut.rs/1PGzqoV ] .

Meanwhile, the New York Times \u2019 Sewell Chan reports [ http://nyti.ms/1PGzPHH ] that European sympathies are aligning with Iran in the conflict with Saudi Arabia.

Plus, the International Business Times \u2019 Michael Kaplan asks, \u201cCould Saudi-Iran Tensions Destabilize Bahrain? [ http://bit.ly/1PGzJ30 ] \u201d CSIS\u2019s Jon Alterman answers that \u201cThe fault lines are there.\u201d

And, the Times \u2019 Editorial Board writes this afternoon about \u201cSaudia Arabia\u2019s Barbaric Executions [ http://nyti.ms/1PGCbXh ] .\u201d

Dive Deeper: The Wilson Center\u2019s Aaron David Miller today writes that \u201cFallout From Saudi Cleric\u2019s Execution Underscores Mideast Challenges [ http://bit.ly/1OvYqjA ] .\u201d

And, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy\u2019s Simon Henderson today writes that \u201cSaudi-Iranian Diplomatic Crisis Threatens U.S. Policy [ http://bit.ly/1OvYEHv ] .\u201d

Hezbollah Bombing
Hezbollah said it detonated a bomb Monday near an Israeli military convoy in the Golan Heights in retaliation for the death of Samir Kantar, one of Hezbollah\u2019s most celebrated fighters, as the Wall Street Journal reports [ http://on.wsj.com/1PGBjBR ] .

The Jerusalem Post reports [ http://bit.ly/1PGBpJO ] that there are no known injuries or casualties at this point.

Lebanon\u2019s Daily Star reports [ http://bit.ly/1PGBOvP ] that Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had vowed last month to avenge the killing of Kuntar.

Forecast 2016
Published today and absolutely worth a look, the German Marshall Fund\u2019s \u201cWhat to Watch in 2016 [ http://bit.ly/1OvXOKS ] .\u201d

Also published today and absolutely worth a look, \u201cWhat Are the Big Challenges Facing Europe [ http://bit.ly/1OvXX0K ] ?\u201d by Chatham House Director Robin Niblett.

And, published today by Brookings\u2019 Kemal Kiri\u015fci \u201cNew year, new leaf? What to [ http://brook.gs/1OvYdgg ] watch in Turkey in 2016 [ http://brook.gs/1OvYdgg ] .\u201d

CSIS Budget Forecast Contest Winners!
We have winners of the budget forecast contest [ http://bit.ly/1OvXsDV ] ! We also have answers for what people got right, what they got wrong, and whether the broader community did better than the CSIS experts. Over 1,100 people participated, so there were a lot of perspectives provided.

Back in June, CSIS asked interested members of the public to participate in a budget survey. The survey asked for forecasts of three events: the nature of the budget outcome (Grand Bargain, President\u2019s Budget, Republican Budget, Murray\u2013Ryan 2.0, Full Year Continuing Resolution), whether there would be a government shutdown, and when the defense appropriation would be signed. More than 1,100 people participated, and we have now assessed the results.

And the winners are: Jeffrey Harris, a former assistant secretary of the Air Force for space; Lindy Wolner, a former Army Corps of Engineers senior program manager; and Galen Jackman with Raytheon Corporation (plus two winners who chose to remain anonymous.)

In that Number
4.5
The factor by which Saudi Arabia outspent Iran on defense in 2013.
Source: CSIS [ http://csis.org/publication/arab-us-strategic-partnership-and-changing-security-balance-gulf-0 ] .

Critical Quote
\u201cThe islands aren\u2019t growing out any more: They\u2019re now growing up.\u201d
\u2014Gregory Poling, director of the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, on China\u2019s recent infrastructure growth in the South China Sea islands.
Source: Wall Street Journal [ http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bigger-bolder-china-in-2016-1451471404 ] .

One to Watch


( Photo Credit: Twitter. )
Jennifer-L. Oprihory (@jenniferleigho [ https://twitter.com/jenniferleigho ] ) is the new editor of the Military Times \u2019 Early Bird Brief [ https://account.militarytimes.com/newsletters ] newsletter. Jennifer previously served as the web editor on the Military Times \u2019 copy desk. Jennifer is one to watch for a thorough defense news rundown each morning.

Optics
The Atlantic published a fascinating retrospective photo essay, \u201cToday in History: January 4 [ http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2016/01/today-in-history-january-4/422517 ] .\u201d

Highly Recommended
Dr. Omer Silih Mahdi talks [ http://bit.ly/1kGstsA ] to the New Yorker \u2019s George Packer about Islamophobia.

This Town Tomorrow
Join the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies at 3:00 p.m. as they host \u201cFriends, Foes, and Future Directions: U.S. Partnerships in a Turbulent World.\u201d Panelists will analyze US friends and potential foes, as well as how alliances and partnerships may evolve to meet the diverse potential challenges to regional and global security. Click here [ http://www.sais-jhu.edu/content/friends-foes-and-future-directions-us-partnerships-turbulent-world ] for more information.

CSIS on Demand
Saudi Arabia has in recent years consolidated its place as the preeminent Arab leader, regional stabilizer, and bulwark against a nuclear Iran. CSIS hosted [ https://csis.org/event/saudi-arabian-defense-doctrine-new-era ] Prince Sultan bin Khaled Al Faisal and Nawaf Obaid for a discussion on growing Saudi Arabian defense and national security capabilities, and what they mean for the US-Saudi relationship over the next decade.

Sounds
NPR\u2019s Morning Edition sits down with the New York Times\u2019 Tehran-based correspondent Thomas Erdbrink, as he sheds light [ http://www.npr.org/2016/01/04/461878668/executions-escalate-tension-between-saudi-arabia-and-iran ] on the long-standing hostility between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran in the midst of escalating tensions.

I Like It Like That
Eye-catching things in CSIS's orbit


In a New Year's Facebook post [ http://bit.ly/1PGxi09 ] , Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg wrote about a group of friends she has known since childhood. In her post, Sandberg says her friends helped her "choose life and meaning" after the untimely death of her husband, Dave Goldberg.

Smiles
I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday season filled with smiles. I enjoyed one of the biggest smiles of my life on Christmas Day. Our van was cruising down Highway 1 from Tel Aviv at midday and I had just put my headphones on to tune out our beloved guide/driver (I needed a break from listening to him talk about King Herod.)

Before I knew it, I was looking out the window at Jerusalem for the first time while my headphones blasted Derek and the Dominos\u2019 cover of the Big Bill Bronzy classic, \u201cKey to the Highway.\u201d Duane Allman and Eric Clapton always sound good to me but never this good!

Another smile over the holidays was watching the excellent documentary \u201cMr. Blue Sky: The Story of Jeff Lynne and ELO.\u201d

Lynne is one of my favorite musicians and is enjoying a resurgence. His first Electric Light Orchestra (ELO) record in 14 years was released in mid-November and his first tour of the US with ELO in 30 years is scheduled.

Lynne has worked with and inspired so many musicians: George Harrison, Tom Petty and Bob Dylan to name just a few. And his influence isn\u2019t lost on today\u2019s superstars either. Check out who got into Lynne\u2019s groove during his performance at the 2015 Grammy Awards. In addition to Paul McCartney, uber-artists Taylor Swift and Beyonce are up on their feet while Ed Sheeran joins Lynne on stage. And with good reason\u2014this Grammy performance [ http://bit.ly/1PGvdS8 ] medley of Lynne\u2019s ELO classics \u201cEvil Woman\u201d and \u201cMr. Blue Sky\u201d is such a smile.

Feedback
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