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01/04/2016 08:50 AM EDT


By Rachael Bade (rbade@politico.com or @RachaelMBade)

WELCOME TO 2016. And say goodbye to the spotlight, Congress. With Americans set to cast the first presidential campaign votes in just a few weeks - and with no government shutdown or 'fiscal cliff'-sort-of threat looming this year - it's all but certain that 2016 will be a year of Trump, Rubio, Cruz and Clinton headlines. Lawmakers' 2016 calendar says it all, with just over 110 legislative voting days in the House scheduled for this year, an early summer recess adjournment set in both chambers and lots of four-day weekends already planned. (For the record, we're not complaining...)

But that doesn't mean Congress won't try to snag its own headlines and stand out from the presidential candidates. Indeed, The Wall Street Journal and The Hill this morning both have stories up about Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) either striving to drive Republican policy circles this year, or distancing their colleagues from what many Republican-insiders say has become a GOP presidential circus. Republican Senators up for re-election in swing states are particularly unenthused about Trump's lead in GOP polls - and what that means for their fate on the Hill. Two stories; similar in tone:

1.) "Paul Ryan Wants House to Steer Republican Policy Agenda," Siobhan Hughes for the WSJ: "Ryan starting this month will push to turn the chamber into a platform for ambitious Republican policy ideas, in a bid to help shape his unsettled party's priorities and inject substance into a presidential race heavy on personality politics. The Wisconsin lawmaker has asked members of his conference to bring proposals to a policy retreat next week at which they will draw up the chamber's priorities for the year. In doing so, the GOP's 2012 vice-presidential nominee hopes to showcase policy positions from the chamber - and shore up his party's electoral prospects - while Republicans settle on a
nominee for the White House."

"The proposition that the congressional wing of the Republican Party could assert itself as a center of GOP leadership just months after the House was in turmoil reflects the free-for-all nature of the party's presidential field. Mr. Ryan has been speaker for just two months, having taken over after conservatives pushed out his predecessor, John Boehner." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782a1de01dc97987f5197c364e6a3e9875ad85297c4488a51118

2.) "GOP's 2016 Challenge: Keeping Senate Majority." Alex Bolton for The Hill: "Senate Republicans are nervously watching the twists and turns of the presidential primary, worried it could cost them their majority in November. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has made it his strategy to focus voters' attention on this year's accomplishments of Congress and away from the presidential circus. He's going to try to do that again in 2016 even though election years are not usually productive on Capitol Hill and media attention will be riveted on the campaign trail."

"'What I want to do is concentrate on what we have done for the American people. The Senate is back to work,' he told CNN's Jake Tapper when asked about the presidential race. McConnell will try to make Senate Republicans their own story next year... Senate Republicans are careful not to criticize the leading candidates publicly but they're creating distance, knowing the battle for the Senate will be won or lost in moderate swing states such as Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782ab12b9341e6a3743433ee9a2538bddd54b02afe0c5ccbf620

QUOTE OF THE DAY: (Per Bolton's story) "Every Republican who is up in 2016 is as nervous as a Christmas goose and hopeful that somehow Trump is eliminated one way or the other as early as possible in 2016 and that Cruz ultimately is not the nominee either." -- Ross K. Baker, professor of political science at Rutgers University.

POLICY ISSUES TO WATCH FOR IN 2016. Here's a look at some policies and debates we'll be following: Syrian refugees and homeland security, to start. This fight is far from over, with concern over a U.S.-version of the Paris ISIS attack fresh on just about everyone's mind. Expect security issues to take center stage for both parties this year, and the GOP to try to block Obama's pitch to welcome 10,000 Syrian refugees. Criminal justice reform: A bipartisan group of Senators has been working since last spring on legislation to overhaul some mandatory minimums and bolster programs that allow well-behaved prisoners to reduce their sentences. But the GOP itself could trip this one up. Senators
like Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) aren't exactly keen on converting their 1990s-inspired tough-on-crime mindsets to the latest thinking on criminal justice reform.

Appropriations? Now that spending numbers have already been hatched out for next year, could we actually see a real appropriations process? So they're saying - but we're skeptical. Taxes. Another long-shot at passage, but Ryan, former Ways and Means member-turned-chair, is a huge tax reform cheerleader and could absolutely have the House introduce something that lowers rates by broadening the base. The anti-gun control. President Barack Obama's new gun-control push, coming this week (more below), will surely spark a Hill debate on the legality of his actions. But it also could translate into a GOP-led focus on mental health services. Republicans, this reporter has found, tend to change the
subject on mass shootings from guns to metal health - and are feeling the pressure to do something about the trend in mass murders.

11 QUESTIONS THAT WILL DEFINE CONGRESS IN 2016. National Journal's Ben Geman with a listicle: "Will Paul Ryan Be a 'Regular' Guy? Ryan has vowed to break with the John Boehner era by giving real power to the committees... Will Cruz vs. Rubio Take Center Stage?... could easily spill over onto the Senate floor in 2016 as the primaries heat up....Can Congress Tackle Criminal Justice Reform?... Does Paul Ryan Care About Free­dom [Caucus]?...... Does Trey Gowdy Have a Trump Card?... [A]t some point the panel's work will be made public... Obamacare politics - and maybe a sweet spot on mental health?... For now, the anti-Obamacare efforts are more politics than reality... But there is a
health-policy topic that could potentially be ripe for cooperation." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782a926b1cd649b1c1d3bd8ef6dcaa2a71efb192165be2c78056

WELCOME BACK, Y'ALL. It's Jan. 4, 2016. Happy New Year and thanks for reading Huddle, your congressional play-by-play, where it's catch-up day in the office. One of our New Year's resolutions is to tweet more. Help us get started by dropping a line to @RachaelMBade. Always reachable here, too: rbade@politico.com

TODAY IN CONGRESS: The House is out until tomorrow. The Senate, out until next week.

AROUND THE HILL: Email catch-up day?

DRIVING THE WEEK - OBAMA'S GUN CONTROL NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTION. A week out from his State of the Union address to Congress, Obama will make a very public push for executive action on gun-control measures this week after Congress has failed to act. Reuters with the read: "Obama meets with Attorney General Loretta Lynch on Monday to discuss his administration's options for tightening gun rules without going through the Republican-controlled Congress... [T]hey are expected to include measures that would require more gun sellers to become licensed dealers and conduct background checks on buyers. "http://reut.rs/1ODA57e

"Obama to Hold Town Hall Meeting on Gun Violence," per the N.Y. Time's Gardiner Harris and Nicholas Fandos: "President Obama will participate in a live televised town-hall-style meeting on Thursday to discuss gun violence in the United States, according to the White House. The hourlong event, at George Mason University outside Washington, will be televised on CNN at 8 p.m." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782ac178fb6b0c7d0af1131b2ee4bf991f090ca25b4372dc234a

Expect this to get ugly. Republicans on the Hill are hardly gonna take this well. Case in point: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who's running for president, on "Fox News Sunday" called Obama's actions "illegal" and accused him of acting like a "dictator." And there's plenty more where that came from. Anticipate max squawking.

REID LAYS OUT FINAL-YEAR GOALS. As he prepares for retirement following a six-decade career in public office, Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is hatching a plan to make the most of his final year. Peter Urban of the Las Vegas Review-Journal has the sit-down that touches, as you'd expect, on obvious goals such as getting more Dems elected to the Senate, doing something about minimum wage and student loans, and ending for-good the Yucca Mountain nuclear repository. But he also talks about bringing home the bacon for Nevada (perhaps why he told Ryan he's game to actually pass approps bills?): "[H]e sees the increase in federal spending that Democrats secured in an end-of-year omnibus
appropriations bill as benefiting his home state. Additional agency funding gives the state an opportunity to seek more federal assistance. Reid said he plans to fight for Nevada's fair share - that probably means contacting agency heads to remind them of how those newly acquired dollars arrived in their coffers." What Reid wants: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782a6ae57d2f68d71d1705aa6e78051c0ce633f4630985a599cb

11 'AMAZING RACES' TO WATCH TO UNDERSTAND THE 2016 ELECTIONS. A team of POLITICO reporters put together a list of the campaigns for governor, Senate, and House that will illuminate broader trends in American politics, from Rep. Scott Garrett's district in New Jersey to Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Louisiana GOP Rep. Charles Boustany's Senate run. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782aecb5cada632722759353ff233c93b620acff80a4193840f4

Add of course don't' miss our top nine primaries to watch in 2016: GOP Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.), Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.), Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.), Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.), Rep. Gene Green (D-Texas), Sen. Kelly Ayotte(R-N.H.), Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.), and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782a5f434c99dcfa9566b97bb1b9f717532a3c0a6927597ad9a9

PENDING ANNOUNCEMENTS? "Sources: Rep. McDermott won't run again in 2016." -Per King 5 Morning News in Washington: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47985b2e3f95782ac7f69c87f0f14a3561ac766ea2e9d1920d99e7c10c824c2f

TRANSITIONS. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee's former majority staff director David Schwietert started today with Alliance of Auto Manufacturers (h/t Burgess). The panel announced just before the break that deputy staff director Nick Rossi would succeed him.

NEW DADS! Congrats to Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), who just announced last week that he adopted a baby girl, Olivia. And to Rep. Joseph Kennedy III (D-Mas.), who's new bundle, Eleanor, arrived last week, too.

LAST YEAR'S TRIVIA WINNER: Suzanne Goucher of Maine Association of Broadcasters was the only person to correctly answer that the last state capitol to get C-SPAN was Augusta, Maine.

TODAY'S TRIVIA: When did Congress first recognize and decide that part of its duties were to investigate the executive branch? Name the scandal and tell me about it: rbade@politico.com.

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