EMAIL DETAILS

Dear Clients,

Although tensions with Iran remain high—and rising oil prices continue to be the biggest risk to the US and global economy—the global outlook appears to have largely stabilized for the time being. The US is still on track for trend or above-trend growth in 2012, China should experience a soft landing this year, and the imminent threats to the European Monetary Union have been resolved for the time being with the conclusion of the Greek debt deal and effectiveness of the LTRO funds in lowering Spanish and Italian bond yields.

Attached please find our monthly report, “US Growth: The Direction Is Positive.” Key conclusions include:
• Strong US employment gains are improving income growth figures and confidence levels in the economy
• The eurozone economy is likely to continue contracting during the first quarter, but LTRO funds appear to have prevented an even worse performance
• Chinese growth prospects remain strong after the release of far-better-than-expected fixed asset investment growth figures
• Iran’s increasingly isolated position could force the country to enter into negotiations over its nuclear development program
• The potential for continued increases in the oil price remains the biggest risk factor in the global economy today

As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

Best regards,
David Hale
Chairman


David Hale Global Economics, Inc.


847-386-6009 (tel)
847-386-6011 (fax)
davidhale@davidhaleweb.com


http://davidhaleweb.com
http://whatsnextbook.com


Copyright 2012, David Hale Global Economics Inc. All rights reserved. This document is not for attribution in any publication, and you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail without the explicit written consent of David Hale Global Economic