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By Kevin Robillard | 06/14/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Theodoric Meyer, Elena Schneider and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PRIMARY PREVIEW - Expect a close one in NV-03: State Sen. Michael Roberson, the establishment GOP favorite in Republican Rep. Joe Heck's open battleground 3rd District, may be in trouble on primary night. Danny Tarkanian, a perennial candidate with high name recognition thanks to his past campaigns and famous father, has painted Roberson as a "double-dealing politician" who "promised not to raise taxes" and "votes for Nevada's largest tax increase," according to his campaign ad. Roberson has struggled to make up ground on Tarkanian; "internal polls have showed him behind the entire race and at no point has Roberson overtaken Tarkanian," said a source familiar with the Roberson campaign.
"Roberson shepherded in those tax increases ... I think it's going to be a bad day for the governor's tax legislation and no one supported it more than Roberson." Another Republican strategist in the state, also not affiliated, said, "my money is on Tark to eke this out, but I think there's still a chance Roberson wins."

- But Roberson did get last-minute air cover from Ending Spending, the group chaired by megadonor Joe Ricketts, which spent over $1.6 million in the last week on TV ads and other efforts. The ads boost Roberson, while attacking Tarkanian and Michele Fiore, another GOP rival. "The independent expenditure was substantial enough to potentially close the gap by election day," said yet another Nevada GOP operative. Jacky Rosen is expected to win the Democratic primary.

- In Nevada's Senate race, both Heck and former Democratic Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto are expected to advance to the general election. Heck is running against Sharron Angle, who lost to Sen. Harry Reid in 2010. "I think Joe Heck's going to run away it," said Ryan Hamilton, a GOP consultant who's unaffiliated in the Senate race. "Angle got a chance six years ago and she blew it, and blew it big time. Frankly, she's got a lot nerve to ask for it again."

- ICYMI, yesterday's NV-04 preview: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e8356fc11578ef850e6a19236f125b0bee6982e577b347aa4c9d

- Virginia's 4th District was recently redrawn to lean solidly Democratic, giving Democrats the opportunity to pick up a new seat. GOP Rep. Randy Forbes left the district to run in the neighboring 2nd. State Sen. Donald McEachin outraised Chesapeake Councilwoman Ella Ward - who challenged Forbes in 2012 - about 7 to 1 in their race for the Democratic nomination.

- Forbes, meanwhile, has jumped to the neighboring 2nd District since GOP Rep. Scott Rigell's retirement. Forbes has a challenge, though, from state Del. Scott Taylor. The race has focused primarily on the region's military presence: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e8352797bad2ba5644b3273d0c5df6663f2b0d3ef3e60d132d67

- And in the North Dakota's governor's race, longtime Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem is facing entrepreneur-turned-Microsoft executive Doug Burgum. Stenehjem easily won the party convention, but Burgum broke with tradition and decided to challenge Stenehjem for a spot on the ballot in November. Burgum has spent at least $2 million on advertising in the low-cost state, according to the Fargo Forum. Polling has been scant, but Stenehjem is favored, and the winner is expected to defeat the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Marvin Nelson, in November. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e835009c01306866496516ad671415360464f3672f3afc6d05bd

NORTH CAROLINA RISES, COLORADO FALLS - New Campaign Pro Senate race rankings: Your Morning Score host is out with Campaign Pro's latest Senate race rankings: "Donald Trump's hostile takeover of the Republican Party is boosting Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate in the fall - and giving the competitive map a slight scramble. Strategists wonder whether lily-white states like New Hampshire and Missouri might now look a bit safer for the GOP, while Republicans running in regions with significant shares of Latino and other minority voters may have more electoral backlash to fear." The biggest riser in the new rankings? GOP Sen. Richard Burr's seat in North Carolina, which goes from 10th to
8th-most likely to flip. The biggest dip? Colorado, held by Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, plummets from 8th to 11th. See the full rankings here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e835c962b9583f61da4035cbbd87f8620d50d96eefc2d667591b

POST-ORLANDO - "What will Marco Rubio do?" by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo and Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "For the first time, the 45-year-old senator is giving real consideration to running again. Most who know the way Rubio thinks say they still doubt he will. But his remarks on Hugh Hewitt's radio show Monday turned what seemed to be a pipe dream for Republicans desperate to keep his Senate seat into something slightly more plausible. ... 'I have no doubt Marco was deeply moved by what he saw in Orlando yesterday,' ... said one Republican who knows Rubio but has not discussed the matter with him. 'If he feels he can prevent something like that from ever occurring again, he's going
to reconsider it.' ... Democrats countered by accusing Rubio of exploiting a tragedy for political gain."

- "NRSC Executive Director Ward Baker said the group would be committing 'malpractice' if it didn't encourage Rubio to run, considering his high name ID and support in public polling. But he also insisted the other candidates in the race could beat Murphy, noting Carlos Beruff's self-made fortune, Lopez-Cantera's success in Miami-Dade politics, and Rep. Ron DeSantis' military background. 'I think those are the top-tier candidates,' Baker said. 'I don't think [Rep.] David Jolly's going to have the money, obviously.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e83500aa1da3b7a3d94cc0c6f7d43c277bdd59761c48847d38b8

The District of Columbia Democratic primary and the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota and Virginia congressional primaries are today. Days until the 2016 election: 146

Thanks for joining us. I'm Kevin Robillard, taking a spin at the wheel of Morning Score this week. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and try to schedule lunch with professional athletes: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

TV TIMEOUT - NEW THIS A.M.: Feingold ad hits Johnson out outsourcing: Democrat Russ Feingold is out with a new 30-second attacking GOP Sen. Ron Johnson for taking a $10 million bonus from his company, "a sweetheart corporate payout" and for voting to protect tax breaks for companies shipping jobs overseas. When the narrator mentions the tax breaks, Chinese and Mexican flags appear in the background. The Feingold campaign is airing the ad on broadcast and cable in every market except Madison. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e835c10175564ac7f1bb143589556022f81093169b1afd113376

- Senate Majority PAC spending $1.1 million in New Hampshire: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e8358a2bdb3d4d13ff1e1294b7a627939fa20b11c5973c64dbf1

- One Nation re-airs ad in Pennsylvania: As part of the first half of $2.7 million buy in the state, Republican nonprofit One Nation is re-airing an ad boosting GOP Sen. Pat Toomey for efforts to block criminals from getting jobs in schools. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e8351fc698961ead1303ebaa88948243f066ff2d4d4dc4997819

- Defending Main Street on the air for Republican Steve Wells in NY-22: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e835614ab7bd15ab966357af44d426527cb33a991cf233d91e6b

WHERE, OH WHERE ARE AYOTTE AND STRICKLAND? - Senate candidates miss Trump and Clinton visits: Both GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former Democratic Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland skipped their first chances to campaign with their party's presidential nominees. Ayotte was nowhere to be found during Trump's speech on Orlando at St. Anselm College, while Strickland skipped Clinton's appearance in Cleveland. "We couldn't make it today although we have loved to have been there if we could," Strickland spokesman David Bergstein said. (Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown introduced Clinton at the event.) An Ayotte spokesperson told local media she skipped to go to travel back to D.C. and handle Senate business. There
were no votes or hearings in the Senate on Monday.

STILL AT IT - DCCC preparing to roll out more candidates: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is still recruiting, executive director Kelly Ward said Monday, even though many states have already held primaries and most filing deadlines have passed. "We will roll out even more candidates in the coming weeks, terrific emerging candidates around the country that are putting districts in play," Ward said a Christian Science Monitor breakfast. She didn't specify any districts, but it's a safe bet that at least one Florida seat is on the list. That filing deadline hasn't passed yet, and Democrats have talked about targeting GOP Rep. John Mica, who represents a Republican-leaning
district north of Orlando that Democrats believe can be competitive with Donald Trump on the ballot.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Occupied territory: The Republican élite struggles over whether to resist Trump or capitulate," by Ryan Lizza in The New Yorker: "Governor Chris Christie, of New Jersey, another of Trump's opponents early in the campaign, has transformed himself into a sort of manservant ... (One Republican told me that a friend of his on the Trump campaign used Snapchat to send him a video of Christie fetching Trump's McDonald's order.) ... [House Budget Committee Chair Tom] Price has been committed to cutting taxes for the very wealthy, supporting international free-trade deals, and making deep cuts in Medicare and Social Security. How could he get behind Trump, who, in
one of the few TV ads he has run this year, promised to 'save Social Security and Medicare without cuts'? ... Price seems to have convinced himself that Trump will be malleable ... 'When I talk to people who work closely with Trump, what they tell me is that behind closed doors he's one of the best listeners they've ever worked for or with in their life. Which is kind of counterintuitive given what some of his public persona is,'" Price said. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e83588ae27acae9e28f57c9449f8ddc2ac8c1f39386fe8b9d26f

- "Trump to America: Be afraid," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "It was a remarkable and harsh speech, filled with inaccuracies and delivered less than an hour after Hillary Clinton had concluded a speech of her own on the same topic in Ohio. The dueling addresses could not have been more different and they represented an abrupt intensification of the general election, even as the candidates denied they were seeking political advantage from the tragedy. The speeches came before the family members of all 49 victims at the gay nightclub in Orlando had been notified of their loved ones' deaths, according to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Trump began his address in the hushed tones he
employs when using a teleprompter, but soon he found his more familiar and louder voice." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e835b315577c8643b9a812fabc373480af86bd9caab860256073

- "Trump snatches Orlando opportunity to drive fear-fueled strategy," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: Campaigns always say the candidate is driving the strategy. For the first time in modern presidential politics, it might be true with Donald Trump. The presumptive GOP nominee determined quickly after Sunday's massacre in Orlando was classified as a terrorist attack that the moment shouldn't be wasted." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1ec4c6ab91d4c8010aed197a1990eb3ca177bafaaec39b9abc4b7fa3fabecdd1

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Everybody says, 'Look, he's so civilized, he eats with a knife and fork.' And then an hour later, he takes the fork and stabs somebody in the eye with it." - GOP consultant Mike Murphy on Trump, to the New York Times. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d794f4df0ac1e8355565c18d4ab647553a02309f3c65aa022464e718a35d1f14

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