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By Theodoric Meyer | 06/22/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Scott Bland, Elena Schneider, Kevin Robillard and Daniel Lippman

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

DECISIONS, DECISIONS - "Democrats weigh Senate spending priorities," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns, Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider: "Senate Democrats plan to spend the fall playing offense. But the outside groups and operatives plotting the party's outside spending strategy are still not sure exactly where that campaign will take them - or which philosophy will carry the most weight: 'Candidates matter,' or 'demography is destiny.' The core of the Senate map is set in swing states like Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Donald Trump's besieged presidential campaign has Democrats hoping they can expand the map beyond those key states."

- "They have a textbook candidate in Missouri, where GOP Sen. Roy Blunt has shown some vulnerabilities: Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, an Army veteran. But demographic change in North Carolina, which President Barack Obama and Democratic senators have won in recent years, could also give a big lift to the less-heralded Democratic nominee there, Deborah Ross. National groups like the DSCC have long considered Missouri the most winnable of the group this year, largely on Kander's strengths. But developments in the presidential race and on the ground in the states have some reconsidering whether North Carolina and then Arizona might be better targets for their spending. ...
'Groups don't necessarily need to make a decision about which states to go after at the moment beyond the top tier races on the map,' a national Democratic strategist said. 'But moving forward, it's almost a game of chicken. If a Republican group comes in with a big buy and the campaign doesn't respond for whatever reason, then Democrats have to make a decision: Respond, or see if the campaign can take some incoming without being completely overwhelmed.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246d75a05631cf20279692b3614e3955effd8e89356b3db73e55

NEW THIS MORNING - Three new Quinnipiac Senate polls - Rubio would lead Murphy in Florida Senate matchup: GOP Sen. Marco Rubio would have a substantial lead over Rep. Patrick Murphy if he runs for reelection, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. 47 percent of registered voters back Rubio and 40 percent back Murphy. The results are similar when Rubio is pitted against Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson. Murphy has significant leads over the four Republicans currently running, though, with more voters undecided about which candidate to support. The poll, conducted between June 8 and June 19, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

- Portman, Strickland tied in Ohio Senate race: GOP Sen. Rob Portman and Democrat Ted Strickland are tied in Ohio; both have the support of 42 percent of registered voters. Similar shares had favorable opinions of them, with Portman at 39 percent and Strickland at 38 percent. But Strickland's negatives are much higher; 42 percent had an unfavorable view of Strickland, while only 25 percent had an unfavorable view of Portman. The remainder hadn't heard enough to make up their minds. The poll's margin of error is also plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

- Toomey leads McGinty in Pennsylvania Senate race: GOP Sen. Pat Toomey has a solid lead over Democrat Katie McGinty, according to the poll, with 49 percent of registered voters backing Toomey and 40 percent backing McGinty. McGinty remains less known than Toomey: Forty-four percent of voters had a favorable view of Toomey, 32 percent had an unfavorable view and 22 percent hadn't heard enough to say. Meanwhile, 32 percent of voters had a favorable view of McGinty, 28 percent had an unfavorable view and 39 percent hadn't heard enough to say. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Here's the full polling release for all three surveys:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246dad9c065f52e605e0a7df5b9572e1d63ac3e083dcffa28139

Days until the 2016 election: 139.

Days until the Colorado, New York, Oklahoma and Utah congressional primaries: 6.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and almost as often about our beloved Cubs: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

CANARY IN A POLL MINE? - DCCC poll: Issa tied in CA-49: A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll has found GOP Rep. Darrell Issa in a surprising dead heat with his Democratic opponent, Doug Applegate, two weeks after Issa received a low share of the primary vote in his Southern California district. The poll showed Issa and Applegate with 43 percent each, while 14 percent of voters said they were undecided. Issa hasn't had a competitive general election since he was first elected in 2000, never dropping below 58 percent of the vote in the 49th District. But Issa received 51.5 percent of the vote in the June 7 all-party primary, which has nearly always established a general-election
ceiling for House Republicans in recent elections. The live-interview poll was conducted from June 15 to June 16 and surveyed 504 likely general election voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. See the full memo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246dc00df33b7306cdbfec96ed982d6cb8e45e8e83961127f74e

- Issa's is the type of "reach" district House Democrats would need to win to challenge for the House majority once again. But California operatives are trying to gauge what this year's primary results might mean for House general elections, given both the track record of recent all-party primary numbers and the fact that the active Democratic presidential campaign may have skewed turnout this year. "I think the past history has to be thrown out this year," said Dave Gilliard, a top California GOP consultant who advises Issa, Rep. Jeff Denham, and other congressional candidates. "We saw high levels of interest early from Republican voters, in terms of absentee ballot requests and returns,
and then that really fell off in the last 2-2.5 weeks before the election ... when Trump was declared the winner [of the presidential race]. ... So I think there'll be a much different profile of voters who come out in November."

- Gilliard also highlighted CA-07, where his client Scott Jones got about 47 percent of the primary vote against Democratic Rep. Ami Bera. "That's not a bad sign for November," Gilliard said, noting that the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report moved its race rating toward the GOP after the primary.

FIRST IN SCORE - End Citizens United goes after Portman in new TV ad: End Citizens United PAC, which backs Democrats who support campaign finance reform, is hitting the air in Ohio with a new TV ad attacking GOP Sen. Rob Portman as "a Washington insider." The PAC is spending $150,000 to air the ad in the Columbus market for the next week. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246d572c950f627a7a1d3d5257eb70746eeac01f60b49c315226

- The Republican nonprofit One Nation is also out with a new TV ad in the state, which touts Portman's efforts to fight Chinese currency manipulation. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246d5aefd1831370ac0a3c48995b69e37b9aa4e87cd3cee4e409

NEW THIS MORNING - Guinta hit with FEC complaint in NH-01: Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman, has filed an FEC complaint against GOP Rep. Frank Guinta accusing him of additional campaign finance violations. The complaint comes more than a year after Guinta admitted to receiving $355,000 in excess loans from his parents during his 2010 campaign, which drew calls for his resignation. Guinta settled with the FEC and repaid the $355,000 to his parents. But Guinta had already repaid a portion of the loans to himself years earlier, and Cullen's complaint alleges that this was essentially double-counting. Jay Ruais, Guinta's chief of staff, said last month that the FEC had
insisted the Guinta campaign repay the $355,000 first and work out what to do about the earlier loan repayment later. The campaign has been working with the FEC to resolve the matter, he said.

- The complaint also accuses Guinta of breaking the law by using money earmarked for the primary to repay the $355,000 instead of money designated for the general election. But Larry Noble, a former FEC general counsel now at the Campaign Legal Center, said it wasn't clear to him that the Guinta campaign had done anything wrong. "I don't think the FEC would find a problem with it," Noble said. Here's the full complaint: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246d7db9460637eb31041664823daca9fa8477587e2f4b383ad8

PRAIRIE PRIMARY - Jackson challenging Mullin from the right in OK-02: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246db57eb5ed6493697be9c099218c864d8230cd19e95b89aa2d

CASH HUSTLE - DSCC outraises NRSC in May: The DSCC raised $7.2 million in May, topping the NRSC and pulling close to the Republican committee in cash on hand. The DSCC now has $23.8 million on hand to the NRSC's $23.9 million. The NRSC previously announced raising $5.3 million in May. The DSCC has topped the NRSC every month so far in 2016.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Evangelicals still lack faith in Trump," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in New York: "Hundreds of top evangelical leaders walked into a closed-door meeting with Donald Trump here on Tuesday eager to get on board with the GOP nominee. But as they left, many prominent figures indicated that Trump still hasn't sealed the deal. When eight leading Christian conservatives - including Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, Sealy Yates of Trump's evangelical advisory committee and Marjorie Dannenfelser of the Susan B. Anthony List - lined up for a news conference following a meeting with the candidate, not a single one was ready to fully endorse Trump and grant him
access to their extensive networks of grass-roots activists." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246de8a1f5a1f1733eb08db8cb05e97bf87d8759ab0db4e7f677

- "Trump's cash-starved campaign seeks top donors in New York," by Bloomberg News' Zach Mider: "Donald Trump courted some of Wall Street's biggest donors on Tuesday to kick-start a fundraising effort that is lagging far behind Hillary Clinton's. Among the major donors spotted heading into the dinner, at Manhattan's Le Cirque restaurant, was the Long Island hedge-fund manager Robert Mercer. Mercer is the biggest spender so far in the 2016 election cycle and hasn't publicly disclosed whether he would support Trump's presidential bid. Previously, he put $13.5 million behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Trump's closest rival for the Republican nomination before he dropped out. Also on hand were
billionaire financiers Carl Icahn and John Paulson." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246d92963b936baf087a3aec9eeb34c88ff0d1d4b178307e0f6e

- Corey Lewandowski, meanwhile, told another group of GOP donors in Manhattan last night that Trump's campaign is getting ready to staff up, BuzzFeed's McKay Coppins reports: "Addressing a private gathering of New York Republican donors Tuesday night, Donald Trump's former campaign manager said the candidate planned to add between 100 and 150 staffers to his campaign in the next 30 days, according to a source who was in attendance. Corey Lewandowski made the claim to about 50 members of the 'Empire Club' in Manhattan - a group comprising donors who contribute at least $1,000 per year to the New York State Republican Party. ...He was joined by campaign press secretary Hope Hicks, and Trump's
state co-chair Carl Paladino." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246dff85a374a003e47e79324c2014e7f13f5a1f9a89f4b5d786

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Nobody, even if so inclined, should give a penny to Trump campaign until he gives a lot and promises NOT to pay himself back from donations." - Clifford Asness, one of the few prominent Republican donors on Twitter. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3fbbd21907b246de2104c8cda6c54f9dbb5084fa3950ab07454f3d1ac65b069

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: News, opinions, and entertainment surround us 24/7, yet a fundamental truth remains, whether for competitive races or impactful ballot measures, the TV commercial reigns as the medium for reaching potential voters. TV helps strongly at the margins. Television is also the easiest way to reach undecided voters. Those passive folks who don't show up at the rallies or ask for email updates, but will be there to pull the levers on Election Day. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, one of the largest and most diversified television broadcasting companies in the country, we combine TV with targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad
solutions, to help your messaging break through the noise. Winning is what matters. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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