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Poll: Iowa Democrats want Hillary Clinton in 2016

Hillary Clinton may have come in third in the 2008 Iowa caucuses — behind President Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards, respectively — but if the Secretary of State wants to run for president again in 2016, she stands a good chance of winning the state, a new poll suggests.

The 2016 election may be several years out, but Clinton currently holds a massive lead over other possible Democratic candidates in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, according to a Public Policy Polling survey out Thursday. More than half of Democrats — 62 percent — say they want her as the nominee, followed by 14 percent for Vice President Joe Biden and 4 percent for both Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

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Clinton would have broad Democratic backing at the Iowa caucuses: Two-thirds of women, 57 percent of men, 65 percent of liberals, 58 percent of moderates, 63 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents told pollsters they support her. And a whopping 88 percent say they have a favorable opinion of her.

But if Clinton doesn’t run — and she has repeatedly said she won’t — Biden’s the next best choice for the state’s Dems. In a field without Clinton, the vice president was first with 28 percent, followed by 14 percent for Cuomo and 10 percent for Warren. Without Clinton or Biden, the field’s wide open, the poll found.

On the Republican side — if Mitt Romney isn’t the 2016 candidate, that is — Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum share first place, with 16 percent each, while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie trails them by just one point. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin each garnered 10 percent, followed by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (9 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (7 percent) and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (5 percent).

The poll surveyed 346 Republican and 335 Democratic Iowa voters from May 3-6. The margin of error for the Republican poll is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, and 5.4 percentage points for Democrats.


Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
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eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com
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