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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

NEW OBAMA AD-HIS FIRST POSITIVE PAID SPOT OF THE CAMPAIGN:The 60-second TV commercial, titled 'Go,' will be on the air early this week in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The campaign describes it as a "significant buy in targeted markets." This is the ad David Axelrod hinted was on its way during his ABC sit-down yesterday morning. Starting with a reminder of how dim things already were when Obama was inaugurated, with 20 seconds clips of clips from 2008 and a cameo by raging tea partiers in 2009, the last 40 seconds evoke an uplifting mix of Ronald Reagan's "It's Morning Again in America" ad and Clint Eastwood's "It's
halftime, America" spot from the Super Bowl. This is the president's first proactive, paid spot in the battleground states.

SCRIPT, read by a soothing male narrator: "Some said our best days were behind us. But not him. He believed in us, fought for us. And today our auto industry is back, firing on all cylinders. Our greatest enemy brought to justice by our greatest heroes. Our troops are home from Iraq. Instead of losing jobs, we're creating them - over 4.2 million so far. We're not there yet. It's still too hard for too many, but we're coming back because America's greatness comes from a middle class. Because you don't quit, and neither does he." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56c74d20d86046029ec8cc1207d14c51f25b57d5168b39b1d6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56c74d20d86046029ec8cc1207d14c51f25b57d5168b39b1d6 .

OUT THIS MORNING - RACE IS DEAD HEAT:A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds Romney edged out Obama 48-47 percent among likely voters as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee. He's up by 10, 48-38, among independents and up six among those who describe themselves as "extremely likely" to vote. The president's job approval rating is 48 percent, down 5 points from our February poll. Americans are split evenly about Obama's economic policies: Forty percent said he's made the economy better; 39 percent said he's made it worse; and 19 percent said he's had no impact on it. Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group said the 19 percent
who don't think Obama has affected the economy - which split 46 percent for Romney and 44 percent for Obama - will decide the election. Goeas analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56136d279bfbd74bc4d2c494c9dce918519f2ec54e1c0f0a26
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56136d279bfbd74bc4d2c494c9dce918519f2ec54e1c0f0a26 . Democrat Celinda Lake analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd567b5885d8e0ee9c9eabfd26c3d1faaf2a28ed2a48ec2a49aa
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd567b5885d8e0ee9c9eabfd26c3d1faaf2a28ed2a48ec2a49aa . My story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56edca8ff69fcba3505a637174382c7a5ad6279faa693ae632
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56edca8ff69fcba3505a637174382c7a5ad6279faa693ae632 .

USA TODAY ALSO FINDS TIE IN THE SWING STATES:Obama edges out Romney 47-45 in the dozen battleground states likely to determine the election's outcome, according to a poll they have on their front page this morning. Susan Page's story says they found Republican enthusiasm waning:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56fecfa2464bd5ec5c756630e47eb50fdbe010b6c3ac529c7f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56fecfa2464bd5ec5c756630e47eb50fdbe010b6c3ac529c7f .

EXCLUSIVE - SGLF AD CAMPAIGN CHALLENGES TEACHER UNIONS:The State Government Leadership Foundation will announce the launch of a new ad campaign today that targets teachers unions for using "big money and bully tactics to protect their own interests at the local, state and federal level at the expense of taxpayers and our nation's schoolchildren." The six-figure TV and geo-targeted online ad campaign focuses on six states where the group thinks teachers unions are the least accountable: New York, New Mexico, Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey and Connecticut. SGLF is a conservative 501 (c)(4) affiliated with the Republican State Leadership Committee. Watch the 30-second spot:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56a88feedd1fbb48c469920ab926e82d43840f245d6cc88615
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56a88feedd1fbb48c469920ab926e82d43840f245d6cc88615 .

As Biden keeps the door wide open on 2016, Jon Tester focuses on ethics in a new TV ad and Janice Hahn picks up a key endorsement in her California primary, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:The three big contests this week are the Indiana Senate primary, the Wisconsin Democratic recall primary and the North Carolina referendum to restrict gay marriage. Romney will keep building up his coffers, with a few appearances in swing states. Ron Paul's forces continue to fight at conventions around the country, looking to have a big impact in Tampa. With that in mind, here are five questions for the week ahead:

(1) If Dick Lugar loses his primary, as expected, will he endorse Richard Mourdock? [In an interview National Review yesterday, he would not commit to:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5692e0d09977ab54ea02a0ab6723a14cc9d5c80d7b27901af9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5692e0d09977ab54ea02a0ab6723a14cc9d5c80d7b27901af9 .]

(2) If Kathleen Falk loses her per primary, as expected, does labor girt its teeth and go all in for Tom Barrett against Scott Walker?

(3) What will Obama say if North Carolina's gay marriage ban passes as expected?

(4) How prominently will Romney's opposition to the auto bailout factor into local and national coverage of his Tuesday visit to Michigan?

(5) Who will be the first prominent Republican to acknowledge they're nervous about the Ron Paul forces disrupting the Republican National Convention?

WHAT ROMNEY IS UP TO:Hosts an Indianapolis fundraiser tonight at 6 p.m.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56fedef55e5ca6d94fabf40f2cb95cba187746525db285ff5d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56fedef55e5ca6d94fabf40f2cb95cba187746525db285ff5d

LAST NIGHT IN BOSTON: Romney was at Boston's TD Garden watching Game 4 of the NBA playoff series between the Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks. The AP reports that "he sat near mid-court, about 12 rows back, with his wife and his longtime friend Bob White."

WHAT OBAMA IS UP TO:Holds"a conference call with elected officials and student government leaders from across the country to discuss the need to prevent rates from doubling on July 1" at 2:30 p.m.

WHAT BIDEN IS UP TO:Attends a fundraiser at 12:45 in Nashville and at 6:30 in Atlanta, where he'll spend the night.

GAY MARRIAGE - BIDEN APPEARS TO BACK GAY MARRIAGE ON MEET THE PRESS:"I am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women and heterosexual men and women marrying another are entitled to the same exact rights, all the civil rights, all the civil liberties. And quite frankly, I don't see much of a distinction beyond that." The vice president's office and the campaign quickly said on the record that Biden was not outlining a new position, and that his comments are consistent with the president's view. But gay activists note that the president has not gone nearly that far in public, even though he says his views continue to evolve:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5656e12713071666b929c847064f0a09fafd213fc7f1a350d0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5656e12713071666b929c847064f0a09fafd213fc7f1a350d0 . The New York Times splashes it on A1:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd565aba5ec40fd3d9699bb4f3f7ca02a40265e28af177ef5253
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd565aba5ec40fd3d9699bb4f3f7ca02a40265e28af177ef5253 .

NORTH CAROLINA MARRIAGE AMENDMENT -

POISED TO PASS:Public Policy Polling, the Democratic firm based in North Carolina, released fresh numbers overnight that show that the anti-gay marriage amendment ahead by a 55-39 margin. "The final yes percentage will likely be somewhere in the 57-59% range depending on how the undecideds break," pollster Tom Jensen writes. "In some sense North Carolinians are voting against their own beliefs. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, yet a majority also support the amendment that would ban both." Jensen analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5622848986d5a38d31b31b99e98cafe0126310cb25d1181c4d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5622848986d5a38d31b31b99e98cafe0126310cb25d1181c4d . Nate Silver blogs that the measure is likely to pass and rounds up past results for gay marriage bans in a handy graphic:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56b7cab964f2602a28757fadb75dbde013f5b817638df2f115
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56b7cab964f2602a28757fadb75dbde013f5b817638df2f115 .

STRONG SUPPORT IN RURAL AREAS:The Charlotte Observer reports that "it's the rural regions - where homemade pro-amendment signs share roadside space with mass-produced ones - that are expected to carry the amendment to passage...The base of support includes churches, GOP groups and boards of commissioners in several counties, including Caldwell, Catawba, Gaston, Union and Lincoln, which passed resolutions in favor of the amendment. In rural areas, signs of support for the amendment are common, like down a stretch of N.C. 27 in Iron Station in Lincoln County. Anti-amendment signs are more dominate in urban areas, including several of Charlotte's neighborhoods."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd561be9c5c4a5afd08219e6684772edc2963e750780469c9b70
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd561be9c5c4a5afd08219e6684772edc2963e750780469c9b70

NOTABLE: North Carolina is the only Southern state without a marriage amendment, according to the Observer.

LAST-MINUTE PUSH:"On Monday, Vote for Marriage will have a rally with ministers in North Raleigh. The Coalition to Protect on Monday will get help staffing its phone bank from members of the cast of 'Wicked,' the traveling Broadway show currently playing in Durham," per the Raleigh News and Observer:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56b4f3cbe3a8fd76599a77aa6dd1765633f98d6b5a21a764b2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56b4f3cbe3a8fd76599a77aa6dd1765633f98d6b5a21a764b2 .BILL CLINTONhas recorded a robo-call opposing the amendment:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56ef25e6f76a3d3f9cd09f89f1c96b15eeb2d3c75913bcd074
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56ef25e6f76a3d3f9cd09f89f1c96b15eeb2d3c75913bcd074 .

INDIANA SENATE - MEDIA ALREADY WRITING LUGAR POST-MORTEMS:A Howey/DePauw poll released Friday morning, just after Score went out, showed Richard Mourdock with a 10-point lead over incumbent Dick Lugar:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56f5aede38bacb3e0c43acbb988f6c9ac9d0c6a41e1d832bd0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56f5aede38bacb3e0c43acbb988f6c9ac9d0c6a41e1d832bd0 . Santorum endorsed Mourdock with a Facebook post Friday afternoon, and Newt Gingrich said on CBS yesterday that he expects Mourdock will win. The stories this morning from national and local press all seem to assume Lugar will lose. The Lugar campaign says their GOTV operation will help close the gap tomorrow, but even their internals show him down. From Friday to Sunday, Lugar volunteers made 100,000 phone calls. The candidate is now explicitly asking Democratic voters for help in the open primary.

Dave Catanese's story from Indiana: "The 36-year incumbent - twice chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee - appears out of sync with the prevailing issues of the day, careening between messages and naively shunning engagement with his insurgent opponent on the stump. 'His team approached it like it was a regular, circa-1995 environment,' said a Senate race strategist familiar with Indiana politics. 'Ignore your opponent. If it gets close, you smack. But when he finally engaged, it looked desperate.' Lugar's closing argument ... has reeked of anguish." Lugar's own internals show him down:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd567f8e20ad37a73353768e6e0e2abe3df91e188a4500b20a0a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd567f8e20ad37a73353768e6e0e2abe3df91e188a4500b20a0a .

EARLY LOOK - WORKERS' VOICE ANNOUNCES FIRST WAVE OF ONLINE ADS:Workers' Voice, the labor-backed group, will announce today that they are going to spend half a million dollars on a first wave of "hyper-targeted online grassroots advertising" to engage activists and "frame the failed economic policies" of Romney. The main point behind them is to start recruiting and signing up volunteers for the field program. People who sign up get access to field tools and will be asked to participate in a round of volunteer activities to be announced later this week. Users earn points for what they do, which will give them votes later to direct how the group allocates its resources. The ads will run on
Facebook, Twitter and search displays. They're targeted to both union and non-union working families. They will run nation-wide, with heavier buys in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Nevada. Between 15 to 25 percent of the ads will be in Spanish. Four versions of the ads can be seen here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5640280887bf3fa99bff4ac0d445fb80c77da9b0bca56d17ba
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5640280887bf3fa99bff4ac0d445fb80c77da9b0bca56d17ba .

SNEAK PEEK - AMERICAN BRIDGE VIDEO CALLS ON ROMNEY TO RELEASE TAX RETURNS:The pro-Obama Super PAC American Bridge 21st Century will push a 90-second web video today renewing the call for Romney to release his tax returns. They point out that the campaign has said Beth Myers will use the long questionnaire that McCain used for his VP search as a starting point. Romney provided 23 years of taxes when he was vetted as a possible McCain VP. Their question: "If the campaign believes tax returns are an important tool in vetting candidates, why won't Romney allow voters to vet him as thoroughly as he's vetting VPs?" They'll also be updating ReleaseYourReturns.com, a website they launched
with Priorities USA Action. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56f4fdc1ae754a4d790a5373b4e8f297e72c560d0f519ea10d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56f4fdc1ae754a4d790a5373b4e8f297e72c560d0f519ea10d .

FIRST IN SCORE - THIRD WAY REPORT SHOWS GROWING INDEPENDENT ENROLLMENT:Third Way, the Democratic centrist think tank, founds that Democratic registration has fallen sharply since 2008 in the 8 battleground states with partisan voter registration. Republican registration is down modestly, while Independent registration has soared. Overall, in the 3½ years since the historic 2008 election: Democratic registration isdown 840,749, or 5.5%; and Republican registration isdown 156,970, or 1.3%; and Independent registration isup 435,451, or 5.8%. From the report: "The long primary slowed the GOP hemorrhaging. But Independents still made the most gains, doubling in the 8 battlegrounds since
1996. Independent voters have also become more volatile, swinging between Democrats and Republicans, resulting in wave after wave election." Read the six-page report:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd566dea9b8936d5d9b47b5c520eb7868a52bcfff3a1e2f2a20c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd566dea9b8936d5d9b47b5c520eb7868a52bcfff3a1e2f2a20c .

VOTER REGISTRATION DOWN AMONG HISPANICS, BLACKS:"Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years and registrations among whites fell at roughly the same rate, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly," the Washington Post reports. "That figure fell 5 percent across the country, to about 11 million, according to the Census Bureau. But in some politically important swing states, the decline among Hispanics, who are considered critical in the 2012 presidential contest, is much higher: just over 28 percent in New Mexico, for example, and about 10 percent in Florida. For blacks, whose registration numbers
are down 7 percent nationwide, and Hispanics, the large decrease is attributed to the ailing economy, which forced many Americans to move in search of work or because of other financial upheaval."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd562f40727218bcc8cb56fff7feb93a178fd977108b7794a6f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd562f40727218bcc8cb56fff7feb93a178fd977108b7794a6f9

THE PATH TO 270-

DEMOCRATS INVEST $25 MILLION ON GROUND GAME:The Boston Globe reviews FEC filings and notes that "Democrats have already poured almost $25 million into key states... Republicans say they will follow suit in the run-up to the election, but so far have sent just over $1 million to state parties...President Obama's reelection committee has also made significant investments in swing-state party committees as part of a strategy that will put a premium on the fall get-out-the-vote ground game. In the past four months, the DNC has sent nearly $1.5 million to the Democratic Party of Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes; more than $1.2 million to the Florida Democratic Party (29 electoral votes); and
more than $1 million to the party apparatus in Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5615ed9ff10d95f6da862eaaab10cd551a2ae3811311ef3c42
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5615ed9ff10d95f6da862eaaab10cd551a2ae3811311ef3c42

PENNSYLVANIA GOP CHAIR SUGGESTS ROMNEY DOESN'T THINK HE CAN WIN THE STATE:"Republican Party Chairman Rob Gleason said he is prepared for 'hand-to-hand combat' in the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia suburbs, where voters tend to swing. He described himself as positive, yet realistic," according to the Morning Call. "When Romney was in Harrisburg for a fundraiser, Gleason told him they would win Pennsylvania. He said Romney responded, 'Really?' 'I don't think anyone thinks we can carry Pennsylvania, I don't think even Romney thinks we can win Pennsylvania; they're not counting on it, but they'll play here,' Bob Gleason said. 'We're not asleep at the switch. We've been
working on this for four years. This is the big one.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56223b6fcb09c73943ecc162b4c0525315d256be72b0807147
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56223b6fcb09c73943ecc162b4c0525315d256be72b0807147

ROMNEY PLAYING CATCH UP IN FLORIDA-BUT HE HAS TIME:The Los Angeles Times' Paul West calls the Sunshine State more critical to Romney than any other. "His entire Florida team was dispatched to other states after the January victory and is just now reassembling. 'Obama was opening up storefronts all over the state, while the Republican candidates were duking it out in places that don't matter in the general election,' said another Romney advisor in Florida, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about the campaign. 'If you injected me with sodium pentothal and asked me what one thing bothers me most, it's what the Obama campaign has done at the ground level.' But sharp restrictions on
new voter registration, imposed last year by the Republican-led Legislature, have slowed Obama's efforts to expand the electorate to make up for those who have soured on him. And even Democratic strategists say Romney's team has enough time to put together a successful statewide operation."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56854f4ef6b83cddd6e1ce82f7991de4af68171b1e2bfb4cc6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56854f4ef6b83cddd6e1ce82f7991de4af68171b1e2bfb4cc6

MONTANA SENATE - NEW TESTER AD HIGHLIGHTS ETHICS:Montana Democratic Sen.JonTester's campaign is going on the air today with a new ad that highlights his integrity. It notes that he posts his congressional schedule online, and it includes a former prosecutor, a teacher and a former congressman praising him for setting a new standard and handing himself in a way that's beyond reproach. This is the campaign's 5th spot of the cycle, part of the continuing effort to re-introduce him to Blue Sky State voters. Ethics was central to Tester's 2006 campaign against Conrad Burns, who had long become a creature of Washington. The buy is about $60,000 statewide on broadcast and cable, according
to a Democratic source that tracks ads. An accompanying microsite:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5612141f5bd027f261e8f71e260058eac8554787e40b198fba
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5612141f5bd027f261e8f71e260058eac8554787e40b198fba . Watch the 30-second spot:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56b6f741c3ed00b95bc396f9b9d47529a1d9fedefe370d0fb5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56b6f741c3ed00b95bc396f9b9d47529a1d9fedefe370d0fb5 .

RON PAUL INSURGENCY - THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE WEEKEND:

NEVADA - PAUL WINS 22 OF 25 ELIGIBLE DELEGATES:"By erasing the two Establishment members of the Romney National Committee and having the discipline and numbers to get 22 of 25 eligible national delegates, the Paul forces showed they knew how to exploit the rules and subvert Romney's overwhelming win at the February caucuses," Jon Ralston writes in the Las Vegas Sun. "The RNC, represented at the Nugget and watching the Paul folks dominate similar conventions across the country, would prefer an uneventful (read: choreographed) national convention where Paul delegates don't boo Mitt Romney as he accepts the nomination or start a resolution revolution from the floor...The Paul folks want to
'change the party from within,' as I heard so many of them say - while Team Romney and its RNC allies want to do what Al Davis always urged: Just win, baby." Ralton's column:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56f266108e0dabdd49438dfd3a671f880a393ce39f0da790bb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd56f266108e0dabdd49438dfd3a671f880a393ce39f0da790bb . Laura Myers harder news account in the Review-Journal:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5649c3e3ccafea50558c1c3a77364d6e68e8d624849e1ad17e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0f3087d524d3cd5649c3e3ccafea50558c1c3a77364d6e68e8d624849e1ad17e .

MAINE - PAUL WINS 20 OF 24 DELEGATES:"Organizers at the Augusta Civic Center on Sunday said presidential candidate Ron Paul won 20 of Maine's 24 delegates that will go to the national GOP convention in Tampa, Fla., while Mitt Romney won zero during the voting on Saturday night and Sunday," reports the Kennebec Journal. "But Paul's victory is likely to be challenged by the Romney campaign.Romney has dispatched his top lawyer, Benjamin Ginsberg, to Maine. Ginsberg was President George W. Bush's lawyer during the 2000 Florida recount. Maine Republican Party Chairman Charlie Webster said [Sunday] that the Romney campaign will contest the results and attempt to have them thrown out.
The Romney campaign will argue that the vote didn't take place in an open forum, Webster said." The headline in the Portland Press Herald is "Paul supporters TAKE OVER GOP convention":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af3f284ee2179bfd25cf060c155431314b0fc574802e199365
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af3f284ee2179bfd25cf060c155431314b0fc574802e199365 . The Kennebec Journal:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af89ed122e32dc626a2c525724f3da3b773c8fd8af815153c9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af89ed122e32dc626a2c525724f3da3b773c8fd8af815153c9 .

IOWA - 10 OF 13 AT-LARGE DELEGATES BACK PAUL:"Of the 13 delegates and 13 alternates elected today for the national convention, just one has publicly endorsed Mitt Romney for president - Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad," The Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs writes after a state GOP meeting this weekend. "The national delegate slate is far from finalized yet, but if the Paul trend in the Iowa delegation continues, the upshot will be that the Iowa caucuses essentially had three winners: Romney on caucus night, Santorum after the certified vote, and Paul in the delegate count."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afcf724008f429fc2e88ba8f0fc594b38733f2d4086312c5dc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afcf724008f429fc2e88ba8f0fc594b38733f2d4086312c5dc

IDAHO - PAUL SUPPORTERS WORKING TO OVERTURN CAUCUS RESULTS:"Paul supporters backed the state GOP's new presidential caucus system. But they're so disgusted with his third-place finish and the fact that Romney captured all 32 national delegates, they're working to change the result," the Idaho Statesman reported yesterday. "'I'll do the scorched earth if I have to,' said Ryan Davidson, third vice chairman of the Ada County Republican Party and a Paul organizer. The Paul camp's plan is to control the GOP state convention in June by winning little-noticed precinct committee races across Idaho in the May 15 primary."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404affb496b3da9cd7d46d0ed1a0e9af666b5e53c9c4dec547c7a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404affb496b3da9cd7d46d0ed1a0e9af666b5e53c9c4dec547c7a

TEXAS - PAUL CLAIMS VICTORY AT RALLY WITH RAND:"The revolution is working," Ron Paul told a crowd of thousands outside the capitol in Austin yesterday. "We have infiltrated the Republican Party and we will convert the Republican Party into defenders of Liberty." The AP reports that Paul appeared with his son Rand: "Members of the rally crowd screamed themselves hoarse while sweating under the unrelenting afternoon sun...Both Paul and his son endorsed another speaker at the rally, former Texas solicitor general Ted Cruz ... one of four major senatorial candidates vying for the Republican nomination to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison." Paul is hosting a House Financial
Services subcommittee hearing tomorrow on legislation to end the Federal Reserve:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afe031d77915c7b90a17b7f30b966ff68445da64c58269ae38
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afe031d77915c7b90a17b7f30b966ff68445da64c58269ae38 . Wire story on the Texas rally:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af8f18575f7e338f5b734ae4118857c8babf9b053ac9af0517
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af8f18575f7e338f5b734ae4118857c8babf9b053ac9af0517 .

WATCH PAUL'S NUMBERS TOMORROW NIGHT:"Tuesday's primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race, and will therefore be a good test both of Mitt Romney's popularity at this stage of the campaign vis-a-vis John McCain, as well as for Ron Paul's own base of support," Smart Politics blogger Eric Ostermeier explains. "In 2012, Paul has averaged 15.7 percent of the primary and caucus vote through the first 37 contests and has at least doubled his percentage from 2008 to 2012 in 17 contests. In Tuesday's three primary
states four years ago, Paul only received 7.7 percent in Indiana, 7.2 percent in North Carolina, and 5.0 percent in West Virginia."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afd22598545d904a5d902450ebc142d06da8b9884d06bcd5f4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afd22598545d904a5d902450ebc142d06da8b9884d06bcd5f4

GARY JOHNSON WINS LIBERTARIAN NOMINATION:Gary "Johnson, who announced in December he would run for president as a Libertarian after mounting a long-shot candidacy for the Republican nomination, won 70 percent of the votes cast by 632 delegates at the party's convention in Las Vegas," Reuters reports.
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afc6a1516b80973d09088d3bbdb38e302e2c3f3c9c1d157c99

SUNDAY SHOW HIGHLIGHTS - IN CASE YOU MISSED THEM:

JOE BIDEN kept the door open on 2016:"I don't know whether I'm gonna run, and Hillary doesn't know whether she's gonna run," he said on Meet the Press, joking that they could run as a team.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afc40971e6b4e62b07bf324e380d1a03b14101f72505fe5b06
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afc40971e6b4e62b07bf324e380d1a03b14101f72505fe5b06

MARCO RUBIO said he would not discuss the VP selection process: 'I'm certainly not the most experienced person in Washington, D.C. But by the same token, I certainly have experience in serving in government and particularly in the legislative branch in one of the largest states and more complex states in the country in terms of public policy,' he said on Fox News.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af481307558dfd8d94fad78af7afebc1bbd4bdd18cd19cbcf6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af481307558dfd8d94fad78af7afebc1bbd4bdd18cd19cbcf6

KELLY AYOTTE, a dark horse in the Veepstakes, said she's more qualified than Obama was when he ran:"I have, some would say, better experience than Barack Obama had when he was a senator, having been the chief law enforcement officer of my state, (then) to serve on the Senate Armed Services Committee," she said on NBC.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af1e6cf03e7e45804dfe52fd89dd0f0f593c4f8b480e6c8a57
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af1e6cf03e7e45804dfe52fd89dd0f0f593c4f8b480e6c8a57

NEWT GINGRICH is self-aware enough to realize Romney would never consider him to be vice president of anything:'Inconceivable,' the losing candidate said on CBS. "Would you pick me as a vice presidential nominee?" Also: "As far as I'm concerned, I've endorsed him...I favor him over Obama."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af2d8ac769c3a4e1ec51a65c39bbf0d997257ecde032d91317
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af2d8ac769c3a4e1ec51a65c39bbf0d997257ecde032d91317

AUSTAN GOOLSBEE said Obama is in "the fight of his life":"There were 14,000 people at the rally for the president in Ohio. There were another 8,000 people in Virginia," the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers said on ABC. "If all 22,000 of those people opened their wallets and gave $1,000 each, that would be less than one donation from a billionaire to the super PACs. And that's why he's in for the fight of his life."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af5f56b2dc44ee30a75f10e60d7307d997d0b887e09f2a470c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af5f56b2dc44ee30a75f10e60d7307d997d0b887e09f2a470c

WISCONSIN RECALL - BARRETT EXPECTED TO WIN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY TOMORROW:"With just two days to go for the gubernatorial democratic primary, Kathleen Falk is on one final grassroots express stop blitz," an NBC affiliate in Northwest Wisconsin reports. "In her final push to beat frontrunner Tom Barrett for the Democratic nomination to run against Governor Scott Walker in the recall election, Falk paid a visit to the Oneida County Democratic party Saturday. She says she's on this final tour because she doesn't believe everyone has their mind made up just yet. 'I think there's still a lot of undecided people, that's what I have found. You just campaign as hard as you can for as
long as you can. I've been in Rhinelander a whole lot of times these past three months, and it's great to be here again,' says Falk."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af5bc86d03634dd53f612d465024da3d8e946d9c45a41738cf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af5bc86d03634dd53f612d465024da3d8e946d9c45a41738cf

FACT OF LIFE:If Scott Walker survives next month's recall, he will immediately get tons of buzz as a TOP prospect in the Republican 2016 field.

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE -

SNEAK PEEK - STATE DEMS TO ATTACK BROWN ON MONEY FROM WALL ST.:A web video being released this morning by the Massachusetts Democratic Party criticizes Scott Brown for taking $2 million in campaign contributions from Wall St. The 40-second hit, meant to reclaim offense after a really bad week for Elizabeth Warren, is set to the song "Signed, Sealed, Deliver." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af9ea7041cd76871dd63df505a64be0213f154a92b5be9e304
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af9ea7041cd76871dd63df505a64be0213f154a92b5be9e304 . Here's Karen Tumulty's takeout on Warren in today's Washington Post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af30e7043e521dd1512daef9828c8d1cdf7a95d95d1262f362
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af30e7043e521dd1512daef9828c8d1cdf7a95d95d1262f362 .

GOP KEEPS PRESSING ON NATIVE AMERICAN STORY:Harvard graduate and Massachusetts Republican Party Chairman Robert Maginn sent a letter to university President Drew Faust yesterday calling for an investigation into Elizabeth Warren's claims of being a minority. The Warren campaign hopes they can turn the page. The Republicans plan to keep up the pressure until Harvard says whether the Native American they take credit for on the Law School's diversity filing is the Democrat.

MAINE SENATE - ANGUS KING MAY DETERMINE WHO CONTROLS SENATE:The New York Times checks in on the race over recess. "Former Gov. Angus King of Maine has a warning for the national political parties that may flood his state with negative ads to derail his independent candidacy for the Senate: 'I will take note of how I am treated in this campaign.' That is not an idle threat... It is a warning from the front-runner, a two-term independent governor who, because he refuses to say whom he would support for majority leader next year, may well decide which party controls an evenly divided Senate...Mr. King said he would be on guard for attacks from opponents who use outside groups that are
nominally independent to deflect responsibility."

"His opponents will have fodder: Mr. King left the state with a budget deficit before he headed off with his wife in an R.V., accepted a $102 million loan guarantee financed by a federal stimulus program to pay for a wind-power project and supports President Obama's health care law, in addition to not saying which party he would support to lead the Senate."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afe1d62397efe2d7d7704fbf5b75afb834a0929faf39c78959
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afe1d62397efe2d7d7704fbf5b75afb834a0929faf39c78959

CALIFORNIA HOUSE EXCLUSIVE - PEREZ TO BACK HAHN OVER RICHARDSON:California Assembly Speaker John A. Perez will endorse Congresswoman Janice Hahn in her primary against fellow Democratic Congresswoman Laura Richardson today. Hahn, the frontrunner in that intra-party right, praises him as one of the state's most influential leaders in a forthcoming statement. She won the endorsement of the Torrance Daily Breeze, the Long Beach Press-Telegram and the Los Angeles Daily News on Friday. Hahn's full list of endorsements:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af7358f3e9e245cae28a9bc43eff6d0f48e316db6d3795fdfb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af7358f3e9e245cae28a9bc43eff6d0f48e316db6d3795fdfb .

LIGHTER CLICKS -

JON HUNTSMANhas an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal on how to manage the China relationship (hint: their leaders are profoundly insecure):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afe4539e51836943c4a27a4ae00198295fb111f0933d179a67
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404afe4539e51836943c4a27a4ae00198295fb111f0933d179a67 .

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGERwrote a much-buzzed about op-ed for Sunday's Los Angeles Times calling on the Republican Party to become more inclusive:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af73b6039182c04e85be245d4c7fbcf10f68cc9304fe7af697
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af73b6039182c04e85be245d4c7fbcf10f68cc9304fe7af697 .

TOM BROKAWsays "it is time to rethink' the White House Correspondents' Dinner:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af9b681c48064e75790883b77964ce0b912391bf3d532acf2b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e820973091404af9b681c48064e75790883b77964ce0b912391bf3d532acf2b .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"Would you say we're close friends? Probably not. But if I saw him on the street I'd say, 'Hi, Mitt'; he'd say, 'Hi, Mike.'" - New York City Mayor Bloomberg defines his relationship with Mitt Romney
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