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-----Original Message-----
From: Hunter Biden <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>
Date: Tue, 4 Oct 2011 18:12:44
To: Hunter Biden<hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>
Subject: Washington Update- 10/4/11

[image: In this newsletter: Prospects for the Super Committee
Financial Shorts: China Currency Retaliation; Trade Deals Moving Forward
Political Shorts: Republican Primary Chaos; Another Stop-Gap Spending Bill]


*Washington Update– October 4, 2011*
[image: In this newsletter: Prospects for the Super Committee Financial
Shorts: China Currency Retaliation; Trade Deals Moving Forward Political
Shorts: Republican Primary Chaos; Another Stop-Gap Spending Bill]
[image:
In this newsletter: Prospects for the Super Committee Financial Shorts:
China Currency Retaliation; Trade Deals Moving Forward Political Shorts:
Republican Primary Chaos; Another Stop-Gap Spending Bill] [image:
1. Prospects for the Super Committee The Joint Select Committee on Deficit
Reduction, or “Super Committee” as it has been dubbed, has just seven weeks
to agree on a plan that would reduce projected deficits by more than a
trillion dollars. If that panel of six Democrats and six Republicans
deadlocks, or if Congress rejects its work, by law automatic
across-the-board budget cuts will be triggered. A month into the Super
Committee’s term, and it looks unlikely the panel can reach a “grand
bargain” agreement due to the huge partisan divide between the two parties
as they jockey for political advantage heading into an election year.
Republicans in particular have insisted that anything less than a
politically viable deficit reduction plan from the Super Committee by its
Thanksgiving deadline would be unacceptable. House Speaker John Boehner last
month ruled out the increased tax revenues Democrats say have to be part of
a plan to shrink deficits, instead calling to cut spending, especially on
big entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. And two weeks ago,
President Obama threatened to veto any plan that doesn’t ask millionaires or
corporations to pay more in taxes while reducing Medicare benefits. The
issue of tax increases may be an insurmountable obstacle. Senate Republicans
don’t think such a grand bargain style plan — in the range of $3 trillion to
$4 trillion in cuts over 10 years coupled with tax and entitlement reform,
similar to the proposal that was under consideration by House Speaker
Boehner and President Obama during the summer — could succeed because all of
the existing proposals contain tax increases they consider “significant” and
are, therefore, politically untenable. Republicans say there are certain
“fees” that can be instituted to raise some revenues, an idea that was
considered during the failed deficit-reduction talks led by Vice President
Biden. It seems the only way that a grand bargain could garner any support
within the GOP, is if it were tied to an overhaul of Social Security or
changes to Medicare. However, the battle over both of these programs between
Boehner, Obama, Democrats and Republicans were part of the debt ceiling
increase fight this summer that pushed the US to the brink of default on its
$14 trillion-plus debt. And just last week, Boehner and Reid clashed over a
continuing resolution to keep the federal government open beyond the end of
fiscal 2011, raising the specter of a shutdown. That deadline was pushed off
until mid-November, shortly before the Super Committee’s deadline. Obama has
also pushed for immediate congressional action on his $447 billion jobs bill
and wants the Super Committee to figure out ways to cover the costs of his
plan. The idea of the trigger was to design a process in which both
Republicans and Democrats would prefer compromise to deadlock. Inaction
would mean deep cuts in domestic spending (which would be unacceptable to
Democrats) and defense cuts (unacceptable to Republicans), and so both sides
would have heavy pressure to cut a deal that protected their core concerns.
However, because those cuts won’t be enacted until 2013 and spread out over
a decade, there’s a catch to all of that. It means that if the trigger kicks
in, the resulting cuts can be undone by the next Congress. And if either
party is convinced that it will win in 2012 and control all the branches of
government, it then has an incentive to let the Joint Select Committee fail,
wait out the clock, and then impose their own preferences after the
election. 2. Financial Shorts China Currency Retaliation This week the
Senate made a major move toward passing a bill cracking down on China’s
currency policies, even as some conservative leaders warned it could start a
trade war and a top House Republican said that it was going nowhere in the
House. On a 79-19 procedural vote, the Senate cleared the way to bring to
the floor for debate a currency measure that would make it more difficult
for the Treasury and Commerce departments to sidestep the need to retaliate
against countries such as China. The Senate bill, whose 20 sponsors include
a mix of Democrats and Republicans, would remove the question of intent and
trigger retaliatory tariffs if Treasury finds any country’s currency to be
“misaligned.” It also alters the criteria the Commerce Department uses when
US companies seek countervailing duties on imports because a country’s
currency is artificially low. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said the
House was unlikely to take up the legislation, even if it clears the Senate
later this week with strong bipartisan backing. The White House said it’s
still reviewing the legislation, though it’s in no rush to get into a
confrontation with one of its largest economic partners. But as the US
grapples with high unemployment and competition from abroad, an unlikely
alliance of liberal Democrats from manufacturing states and Republicans from
states harmed by outsourcing has come together, arguing that the bill would
stanch the flow of jobs heading overseas. Trade Deals Moving Forward
Congress is taking aim at China’s currency just as lawmakers appear to be
uniting behind free-trade agreements with Panama, South Korea and Colombia.
President Obama sent those deals to Congress on Monday, after House Speaker
John Boehner pledged to swiftly move them along, together with the extension
of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. The White House is
depending on Republican support for the trade agreements to overcome the
passionate opposition of Democrats concerned about the loss of American jobs
to foreign competition. But it agreed to submit the deals to Congress only
after receiving what administration officials described as sufficient
assurances that House Republicans would also approve an expansion of
benefits for displaced workers. The Senate approved an expansion of the
benefits program last month. The agreements have won support from both the
United States Chamber of Commerce and the United Automobile Workers, who
agreed to support the South Korea deal after the administration persuaded
South Korea to accept a more gradual elimination of tariffs on auto imports.
Under special rules that govern the consideration of trade deals, Congress
has 90 days to approve or reject the agreements, but it cannot amend the
terms. The agreements are expected to win swift passage by the House and
Senate, and hopefully in conjunction with South Korean President Lee Myung
Bak’s official state visit to Washington on October 13. 3. Political Shorts
Republican Primary Chaos Late changes to the Republican primary calendar are
not helping the party’s efforts to defeat President Obama, heightening the
pressure on top presidential candidates to increase fundraising. The
decision by Florida and South Carolina to hold their nominating elections in
January instead of March or April forces other states to move up their
nominating elections. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are
authorized to hold their primaries first, but New Hampshire law requires it
to hold its primary “7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which
any other state shall hold a similar election.” It remains unclear whether
Nevada and New Hampshire can reconcile Nevada’s effort to hold its caucus
five days after the New Hampshire primary with New Hampshire state law Also,
with a rule change by Republican leaders after the 2008 election that
extends the nominating process and awards candidates in some states
delegates based on proportional voting, not “winner takes all,” means the
process could drag on for months between the two leading candidates. New
Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida will all lose half their
convention delegates for breaking Republican National Committee rules by
holding their nominating contests before their prescribed dates. Another
Stop-Gap Spending Bill The House gave quick approval to a stopgap spending
bill earlier last week that financed the government for the first four days
of October, until lawmakers could return and vote on a more ambitious
six-week spending bill. The measure will be the 157th stopgap spending bill
enacted since 1977, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research
Service. Such bills have become a regular feature of government as Congress
has had difficulty completing the regular annual appropriations bills in a
timely way. From 1978 to 2011, Congress has enacted an average of more than
four stopgap spending bills per fiscal year, according to the research
service. In only three years were all the regular appropriations bills
adopted on time. Congress resorted to temporary measures, also known as
continuing resolutions, in the other years. Currently, the House is set to
take up a six-week continuing resolution funding the government through
November 18. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor predicted passage of the
bill, with the help of Democrats. He could need the votes to overcome
defections of dozens of conservatives, who believe leadership sold them out
in the summer budget agreement that set the measure's spending level. It
also remains unclear how or when many of the individual appropriations
bills, a dozen in all, will move — and how many will end up combined into
giant omnibus spending packages. Cantor has signaled that he would not back
an omnibus, as the GOP was highly critical last year when Senator Majority
Leader Harry Reid tried to move just that sort of measure in the lame-duck
session. The failure of that deal, which initially had support from GOP
appropriators, led to months of fighting over 2011 spending once the new
House GOP majority came into power in January.] [image: 1. Prospects
for the Super Committee The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, or
“Super Committee” as it has been dubbed, has just seven weeks to agree on a
plan that would reduce projected deficits by more than a trillion dollars.
If that panel of six Democrats and six Republicans deadlocks, or if Congress
rejects its work, by law automatic across-the-board budget cuts will be
triggered. A month into the Super Committee’s term, and it looks unlikely
the panel can reach a “grand bargain” agreement due to the huge partisan
divide between the two parties as they jockey for political advantage
heading into an election year. Republicans in particular have insisted that
anything less than a politically viable deficit reduction plan from the
Super Committee by its Thanksgiving deadline would be unacceptable. House
Speaker John Boehner last month ruled out the increased tax revenues
Democrats say have to be part of a plan to shrink deficits, instead calling
to cut spending, especially on big entitlement programs such as Medicare and
Medicaid. And two weeks ago, President Obama threatened to veto any plan
that doesn’t ask millionaires or corporations to pay more in taxes while
reducing Medicare benefits. The issue of tax increases may be an
insurmountable obstacle. Senate Republicans don’t think such a grand bargain
style plan — in the range of $3 trillion to $4 trillion in cuts over 10
years coupled with tax and entitlement reform, similar to the proposal that
was under consideration by House Speaker Boehner and President Obama during
the summer — could succeed because all of the existing proposals contain tax
increases they consider “significant” and are, therefore, politically
untenable. Republicans say there are certain “fees” that can be instituted
to raise some revenues, an idea that was considered during the failed
deficit-reduction talks led by Vice President Biden. It seems the only way
that a grand bargain could garner any support within the GOP, is if it were
tied to an overhaul of Social Security or changes to Medicare. However, the
battle over both of these programs between Boehner, Obama, Democrats and
Republicans were part of the debt ceiling increase fight this summer that
pushed the US to the brink of default on its $14 trillion-plus debt. And
just last week, Boehner and Reid clashed over a continuing resolution to
keep the federal government open beyond the end of fiscal 2011, raising the
specter of a shutdown. That deadline was pushed off until mid-November,
shortly before the Super Committee’s deadline. Obama has also pushed for
immediate congressional action on his $447 billion jobs bill and wants the
Super Committee to figure out ways to cover the costs of his plan. The idea
of the trigger was to design a process in which both Republicans and
Democrats would prefer compromise to deadlock. Inaction would mean deep cuts
in domestic spending (which would be unacceptable to Democrats) and defense
cuts (unacceptable to Republicans), and so both sides would have heavy
pressure to cut a deal that protected their core concerns. However, because
those cuts won’t be enacted until 2013 and spread out over a decade, there’s
a catch to all of that. It means that if the trigger kicks in, the resulting
cuts can be undone by the next Congress. And if either party is convinced
that it will win in 2012 and control all the branches of government, it then
has an incentive to let the Joint Select Committee fail, wait out the clock,
and then impose their own preferences after the election. 2. Financial
Shorts China Currency Retaliation This week the Senate made a major move
toward passing a bill cracking down on China’s currency policies, even as
some conservative leaders warned it could start a trade war and a top House
Republican said that it was going nowhere in the House. On a 79-19
procedural vote, the Senate cleared the way to bring to the floor for debate
a currency measure that would make it more difficult for the Treasury and
Commerce departments to sidestep the need to retaliate against countries
such as China. The Senate bill, whose 20 sponsors include a mix of Democrats
and Republicans, would remove the question of intent and trigger retaliatory
tariffs if Treasury finds any country’s currency to be “misaligned.” It also
alters the criteria the Commerce Department uses when US companies seek
countervailing duties on imports because a country’s currency is
artificially low. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said the House was
unlikely to take up the legislation, even if it clears the Senate later this
week with strong bipartisan backing. The White House said it’s still
reviewing the legislation, though it’s in no rush to get into a
confrontation with one of its largest economic partners. But as the US
grapples with high unemployment and competition from abroad, an unlikely
alliance of liberal Democrats from manufacturing states and Republicans from
states harmed by outsourcing has come together, arguing that the bill would
stanch the flow of jobs heading overseas. Trade Deals Moving Forward
Congress is taking aim at China’s currency just as lawmakers appear to be
uniting behind free-trade agreements with Panama, South Korea and Colombia.
President Obama sent those deals to Congress on Monday, after House Speaker
John Boehner pledged to swiftly move them along, together with the extension
of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. The White House is
depending on Republican support for the trade agreements to overcome the
passionate opposition of Democrats concerned about the loss of American jobs
to foreign competition. But it agreed to submit the deals to Congress only
after receiving what administration officials described as sufficient
assurances that House Republicans would also approve an expansion of
benefits for displaced workers. The Senate approved an expansion of the
benefits program last month. The agreements have won support from both the
United States Chamber of Commerce and the United Automobile Workers, who
agreed to support the South Korea deal after the administration persuaded
South Korea to accept a more gradual elimination of tariffs on auto imports.
Under special rules that govern the consideration of trade deals, Congress
has 90 days to approve or reject the agreements, but it cannot amend the
terms. The agreements are expected to win swift passage by the House and
Senate, and hopefully in conjunction with South Korean President Lee Myung
Bak’s official state visit to Washington on October 13. 3. Political Shorts
Republican Primary Chaos Late changes to the Republican primary calendar are
not helping the party’s efforts to defeat President Obama, heightening the
pressure on top presidential candidates to increase fundraising. The
decision by Florida and South Carolina to hold their nominating elections in
January instead of March or April forces other states to move up their
nominating elections. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are
authorized to hold their primaries first, but New Hampshire law requires it
to hold its primary “7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which
any other state shall hold a similar election.” It remains unclear whether
Nevada and New Hampshire can reconcile Nevada’s effort to hold its caucus
five days after the New Hampshire primary with New Hampshire state law Also,
with a rule change by Republican leaders after the 2008 election that
extends the nominating process and awards candidates in some states
delegates based on proportional voting, not “winner takes all,” means the
process could drag on for months between the two leading candidates. New
Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida will all lose half their
convention delegates for breaking Republican National Committee rules by
holding their nominating contests before their prescribed dates. Another
Stop-Gap Spending Bill The House gave quick approval to a stopgap spending
bill earlier last week that financed the government for the first four days
of October, until lawmakers could return and vote on a more ambitious
six-week spending bill. The measure will be the 157th stopgap spending bill
enacted since 1977, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research
Service. Such bills have become a regular feature of government as Congress
has had difficulty completing the regular annual appropriations bills in a
timely way. From 1978 to 2011, Congress has enacted an average of more than
four stopgap spending bills per fiscal year, according to the research
service. In only three years were all the regular appropriations bills
adopted on time. Congress resorted to temporary measures, also known as
continuing resolutions, in the other years. Currently, the House is set to
take up a six-week continuing resolution funding the government through
November 18. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor predicted passage of the
bill, with the help of Democrats. He could need the votes to overcome
defections of dozens of conservatives, who believe leadership sold them out
in the summer budget agreement that set the measure's spending level. It
also remains unclear how or when many of the individual appropriations
bills, a dozen in all, will move — and how many will end up combined into
giant omnibus spending packages. Cantor has signaled that he would not back
an omnibus, as the GOP was highly critical last year when Senator Majority
Leader Harry Reid tried to move just that sort of measure in the lame-duck
session. The failure of that deal, which initially had support from GOP
appropriators, led to months of fighting over 2011 spending once the new
House GOP majority came into power in January.] [image: 1. Prospects
for the Super Committee The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, or
“Super Committee” as it has been dubbed, has just seven weeks to agree on a
plan that would reduce projected deficits by more than a trillion dollars.
If that panel of six Democrats and six Republicans deadlocks, or if Congress
rejects its work, by law automatic across-the-board budget cuts will be
triggered. A month into the Super Committee’s term, and it looks unlikely
the panel can reach a “grand bargain” agreement due to the huge partisan
divide between the two parties as they jockey for political advantage
heading into an election year. Republicans in particular have insisted that
anything less than a politically viable deficit reduction plan from the
Super Committee by its Thanksgiving deadline would be unacceptable. House
Speaker John Boehner last month ruled out the increased tax revenues
Democrats say have to be part of a plan to shrink deficits, instead calling
to cut spending, especially on big entitlement programs such as Medicare and
Medicaid. And two weeks ago, President Obama threatened to veto any plan
that doesn’t ask millionaires or corporations to pay more in taxes while
reducing Medicare benefits. The issue of tax increases may be an
insurmountable obstacle. Senate Republicans don’t think such a grand bargain
style plan — in the range of $3 trillion to $4 trillion in cuts over 10
years coupled with tax and entitlement reform, similar to the proposal that
was under consideration by House Speaker Boehner and President Obama during
the summer — could succeed because all of the existing proposals contain tax
increases they consider “significant” and are, therefore, politically
untenable. Republicans say there are certain “fees” that can be instituted
to raise some revenues, an idea that was considered during the failed
deficit-reduction talks led by Vice President Biden. It seems the only way
that a grand bargain could garner any support within the GOP, is if it were
tied to an overhaul of Social Security or changes to Medicare. However, the
battle over both of these programs between Boehner, Obama, Democrats and
Republicans were part of the debt ceiling increase fight this summer that
pushed the US to the brink of default on its $14 trillion-plus debt. And
just last week, Boehner and Reid clashed over a continuing resolution to
keep the federal government open beyond the end of fiscal 2011, raising the
specter of a shutdown. That deadline was pushed off until mid-November,
shortly before the Super Committee’s deadline. Obama has also pushed for
immediate congressional action on his $447 billion jobs bill and wants the
Super Committee to figure out ways to cover the costs of his plan. The idea
of the trigger was to design a process in which both Republicans and
Democrats would prefer compromise to deadlock. Inaction would mean deep cuts
in domestic spending (which would be unacceptable to Democrats) and defense
cuts (unacceptable to Republicans), and so both sides would have heavy
pressure to cut a deal that protected their core concerns. However, because
those cuts won’t be enacted until 2013 and spread out over a decade, there’s
a catch to all of that. It means that if the trigger kicks in, the resulting
cuts can be undone by the next Congress. And if either party is convinced
that it will win in 2012 and control all the branches of government, it then
has an incentive to let the Joint Select Committee fail, wait out the clock,
and then impose their own preferences after the election. 2. Financial
Shorts China Currency Retaliation This week the Senate made a major move
toward passing a bill cracking down on China’s currency policies, even as
some conservative leaders warned it could start a trade war and a top House
Republican said that it was going nowhere in the House. On a 79-19
procedural vote, the Senate cleared the way to bring to the floor for debate
a currency measure that would make it more difficult for the Treasury and
Commerce departments to sidestep the need to retaliate against countries
such as China. The Senate bill, whose 20 sponsors include a mix of Democrats
and Republicans, would remove the question of intent and trigger retaliatory
tariffs if Treasury finds any country’s currency to be “misaligned.” It also
alters the criteria the Commerce Department uses when US companies seek
countervailing duties on imports because a country’s currency is
artificially low. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said the House was
unlikely to take up the legislation, even if it clears the Senate later this
week with strong bipartisan backing. The White House said it’s still
reviewing the legislation, though it’s in no rush to get into a
confrontation with one of its largest economic partners. But as the US
grapples with high unemployment and competition from abroad, an unlikely
alliance of liberal Democrats from manufacturing states and Republicans from
states harmed by outsourcing has come together, arguing that the bill would
stanch the flow of jobs heading overseas. Trade Deals Moving Forward
Congress is taking aim at China’s currency just as lawmakers appear to be
uniting behind free-trade agreements with Panama, South Korea and Colombia.
President Obama sent those deals to Congress on Monday, after House Speaker
John Boehner pledged to swiftly move them along, together with the extension
of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. The White House is
depending on Republican support for the trade agreements to overcome the
passionate opposition of Democrats concerned about the loss of American jobs
to foreign competition. But it agreed to submit the deals to Congress only
after receiving what administration officials described as sufficient
assurances that House Republicans would also approve an expansion of
benefits for displaced workers. The Senate approved an expansion of the
benefits program last month. The agreements have won support from both the
United States Chamber of Commerce and the United Automobile Workers, who
agreed to support the South Korea deal after the administration persuaded
South Korea to accept a more gradual elimination of tariffs on auto imports.
Under special rules that govern the consideration of trade deals, Congress
has 90 days to approve or reject the agreements, but it cannot amend the
terms. The agreements are expected to win swift passage by the House and
Senate, and hopefully in conjunction with South Korean President Lee Myung
Bak’s official state visit to Washington on October 13. 3. Political Shorts
Republican Primary Chaos Late changes to the Republican primary calendar are
not helping the party’s efforts to defeat President Obama, heightening the
pressure on top presidential candidates to increase fundraising. The
decision by Florida and South Carolina to hold their nominating elections in
January instead of March or April forces other states to move up their
nominating elections. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are
authorized to hold their primaries first, but New Hampshire law requires it
to hold its primary “7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which
any other state shall hold a similar election.” It remains unclear whether
Nevada and New Hampshire can reconcile Nevada’s effort to hold its caucus
five days after the New Hampshire primary with New Hampshire state law Also,
with a rule change by Republican leaders after the 2008 election that
extends the nominating process and awards candidates in some states
delegates based on proportional voting, not “winner takes all,” means the
process could drag on for months between the two leading candidates. New
Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida will all lose half their
convention delegates for breaking Republican National Committee rules by
holding their nominating contests before their prescribed dates. Another
Stop-Gap Spending Bill The House gave quick approval to a stopgap spending
bill earlier last week that financed the government for the first four days
of October, until lawmakers could return and vote on a more ambitious
six-week spending bill. The measure will be the 157th stopgap spending bill
enacted since 1977, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research
Service. Such bills have become a regular feature of government as Congress
has had difficulty completing the regular annual appropriations bills in a
timely way. From 1978 to 2011, Congress has enacted an average of more than
four stopgap spending bills per fiscal year, according to the research
service. In only three years were all the regular appropriations bills
adopted on time. Congress resorted to temporary measures, also known as
continuing resolutions, in the other years. Currently, the House is set to
take up a six-week continuing resolution funding the government through
November 18. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor predicted passage of the
bill, with the help of Democrats. He could need the votes to overcome
defections of dozens of conservatives, who believe leadership sold them out
in the summer budget agreement that set the measure's spending level. It
also remains unclear how or when many of the individual appropriations
bills, a dozen in all, will move — and how many will end up combined into
giant omnibus spending packages. Cantor has signaled that he would not back
an omnibus, as the GOP was highly critical last year when Senator Majority
Leader Harry Reid tried to move just that sort of measure in the lame-duck
session. The failure of that deal, which initially had support from GOP
appropriators, led to months of fighting over 2011 spending once the new
House GOP majority came into power in January.]


--
R. Hunter Biden
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880