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Dear R. Hunter,

There are several black swan events that could occur in the second half
of this year-a coup in North Korea, devaluation of the Chinese yuan in
response to a trade war, a change of leadership in Germany or an Italian
Brexit. We're not predicting that any of these will occur, but each is
possible and could have enormous effects on geopolitical stability and
the global economy.

Of all of these possibilities, an economic and political crisis in
Mexico seems the most probable, and the least expected in terms of
severity. $8T of emerging market equity markets are already in a bear
market, including China's. Mexico's likely abandonment of both macro and
micro reforms, a social spending spree, and enmity towards its northern
neighbor could all prove highly destructive to its economy by 2019.

We have asked two political scientists who specialize in Latin America,
Evan Ellis and Isidro Morales Moreno, to contribute their thoughts on
the probable outcomes of Sunday's elections in Mexico. You will find my
report attached, with links to their articles and biographies.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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