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Today's Playbook Power Briefing presented by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce

By JAKE SHERMAN (sherman@politico.com; @JakeSherman), ANNA PALMER (anna@politico.com; @apalmerdc), DANIEL LIPPMAN (daniel@politico.com; @dlippman) and AKELA LACY (alacy@politico.com; @akela_lacy)


TRUMP IN EUROPE ... TOM MCTAGUE IN LONDON: "Donald Trump visit sidesteps London 'carnival of resistance'": "Donald Trump will stay in the U.K. for three full days after arriving for his first official visit to the country Thursday - but will spend hardly any time in London. The U.S. president and the first lady will jet into the U.K. from the NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday afternoon, before a black-tie dinner at Blenheim Palace, Winston Churchill's birthplace, later that evening, according to a briefing for journalists by No. 10 Downing Street.

"On Friday, Trump will hold talks with Theresa May at the U.K. prime minister's rural retreat, Chequers, before making the 25-mile journey south to Windsor Castle - the site of Prince Harry's wedding to Meghan Markle - to meet the queen. In the evening, the Trumps will fly to Scotland, where they will spend the weekend before moving on to Helsinki, Finland, to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin ... Throughout the three-day official visit to the U.K., Trump will only venture into the capital once, to stay overnight at the U.S. ambassador's official residence, Winfield House, on Thursday evening, which is less than a quarter of a mile from London's Central Mosque where a call to morning
prayer sounds at 3:05 a.m.

"For the rest of the visit, Trump will be kept away from the tens of thousands expected to flock into London for a rally protesting his visit. Activists from across Europe are expected to attend a 'carnival of resistance' against the president and a six meter-tall 'baby Trump' blimp will fly above the city during the trip." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba17817f0e990a320275c3372e784d9b7eb356a6f652c79eb5b08624ec463a13f8f3645f3769c5a615548f4ef3bf77be

A BIG LINGERING QUESTION ... How will House Republicans handle the scandal swirling around REP. JIM JORDAN (R-OHIO). If you haven't been paying attention, five former Ohio State wrestlers -- including the former UFC champion -- have said the Freedom Caucus leader was aware of sexual misconduct by the team doctor but did nothing about it. (The most recent story, by the WSJ http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b4a8a0b2d7991d2111f730639a3e2a1a46153a52ae459c323322d14b1661ffdaef2ca859e3c32808f0e84fea8a599d2

THIS QUOTE, from Mark Coleman, the former UFC champion, is particularly damning: "'There's no way unless he's got dementia or something that he's got no recollection of what was going on at Ohio State,' Mr. Coleman, the mixed martial arts champion, said of Mr. Jordan in an interview Wednesday. Messrs. Coleman and Jordan roomed together on several wrestling trips, Mr. Coleman said. 'I have nothing but respect for this man, I love this man, but he knew as far as I'm concerned.'"

JORDAN -- in an interview earlier this week with our colleague Rachael Bade -- has categorically denied knowing of any of this alleged behavior. In other words, he doesn't have a ton of room to walk this back. At this point, it's five peoples' word versus one. Jordan, at the moment, is mostly alone.

JORDAN, ALSO, doesn't have a ton of friends in GOP leadership. He's openly discussed running for speaker. So it will be interesting to see how this is handled.

ANOTHER BIG QUESTION: How will members of the Freedom Caucus handle the allegations against Jordan?

AS OF NOW, THERE has been silence -- Congress is on recess. We'll see if that's sustainable.

NEW ... UPDATED COOK HOUSE RATINGS ... DAVE WASSERMAN (@redistrict): "We see 62 highly at-risk seats (56 GOP-held, 6 Dem-held)" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba17817f0e990a326732248f893c7d485a78ece87573bab7ff17e6c65a972f0d4d75e8b1737e6546b69621df9c3a43d0

-- NOTABLE: Virginia Republican Rep. Dave Brat, who beat Eric Cantor, is now in a toss-up seat in the Richmond area.

****** A message from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce: There are no winners in a global trade war. Here's a breakdown of the states and industries hardest hit by retaliatory tariffs on American exports. www.TheWrongApproach.com. ******

TRADE WARS ...

-- DOUG PALMER: "U.S. trade deficit with China widens as trade war starts": "The U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased significantly in May, a Commerce Department report showed on Friday, as the United States and China lunged into a tit-for-tat trade war ignited by President Donald Trump.

"The data was released on the same day that Trump formally imposed a 25 percent duty on $34 billion worth of Chinese exports to the United States ... Although Trump blames the trade gap with China on unfair trade policies and bad trade deals, most economists say that other factors - such as differential growth and savings rates - play a far bigger role." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba17817f0e990a32cfb5b9020740bdb6b774c4cdfa337077229266173ae0da2b0b107ebeff59a7f57f3e2466265d5623

-- FARMERS WALLOPED: "U.S. farmers hit hard by Chinese tariffs," by Catherine Boudreau: "China's retaliatory tariffs on $34 billion worth of U.S. goods are directly aimed at rural regions of the country that voted heavily for President Donald Trump. ... The move and countermoves are the most severe trade actions so far, and likely to cut deep into the incomes of farmers, ranchers and agribusinesses.

"[The tariff targets] agricultural products such as soybeans, cotton, rice, sorghum, beef, pork, dairy, nuts and produce. The brunt of the penalties are likely to affect U.S. soybean growers. ... Now that the commodity is about to become significantly more expensive, Brazil and other alternative soybean growers will be the beneficiaries of the escalating tensions."

JOBS REPORT -- IAN KULLGREN: "Jobs growth declined in June": "Job growth decelerated in June, the government reported Friday, as employers struggled to find qualified workers to fill an abundance of job openings. The Labor Department reported 213,000 new jobs in June, down from 244,000 in May. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent after falling to 3.8 percent in May.

"The tight labor market continued to produce bafflingly weak wage growth, with average hourly earnings up 2.7 percent over the previous year, unchanged from May. Although government data show there are roughly enough jobs for every person seeking one, experts say businesses are struggling to find qualified applicants." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba17817f0e990a32a2d3953b62f78051ec10a493513f6d2860253f1a5cdd35acee4af2f307e292219751004e878b5c0e

Good Friday afternoon. KELLY WATCH -- THE NEW YORKER'S SUSAN GLASSER: "John Kelly, Scott Pruitt, And The Epic Turnover Of The Trump Administration": "It may not even matter if Kelly makes it to the one-year mark. The President has, by all accounts, effectively unleashed himself from the strictures, processes, and constraints that Kelly sought to impose on him. ... [I]t has become a new reality for a tumultuous White House in which Trump himself has assumed the role of chief of staff. ...

"It's now clear that Trump is making major decisions without even a nod to the process and order that Kelly was supposedly bringing to his office... [Trump] has systematically undermined Kelly's authority, telling both his new national-security adviser, John Bolton, and his chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, that they should report to him directly, not to Kelly.

"Turnover among the White House staff, already record-setting in Trump's first year, has spiked recently, now that no one is really in charge. ... Martha Joynt Kumar, a scholar who has tracked White House staff during the past six Presidencies, reported that the Trump White House has an astonishing turnover rate of sixty-one per cent so far among its top-level advisers. No other Administration she has tracked comes close: Trump's two immediate predecessors were at fourteen per cent (Barack Obama) and five percent (George W. Bush) at this point in their Presidencies. Bill Clinton, the highest after Trump, was at forty-two per cent, and that number was mostly made up of advisers who were
reassigned to other senior White House roles, not fired or pushed out, according to Kumar." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba17817f0e990a3239dd41cb1bdb8cea3e91ecfdd12aa37d27f5b3508a72498b30a463e6e54c460c862715d02e56231f

PRUITT FILES -- TICK TOCK ... THE ATLANTIC'S ELAINA PLOTT, "Inside Scott Pruitt's Tumultuous Final Months as EPA Administrator: Many members of his inner circle apparently couldn't stand their boss": "One former official remembered Pruitt's anxiety upon seeing wall-to-wall cable coverage of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and then-Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly's joint trip to the U.S.-Mexico border in late April. 'He was jealous of other members being on TV," the former official said, 'so he was always pressuring us to book him on more shows.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5e668e965be3983cb0febb1801a070a384b498e29fa1db8bd6b59f6a7d05d764b1ef4b2fcfd7e93ba

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- JOSH GERSTEIN: "Manafort judge emerges as skeptic of long mandatory minimum sentences": "The judge overseeing former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort's looming trial on tax and bank fraud charges is known as a tough jurist, often snapping at attorneys for ignoring his directions and rebuking defendants he views as insufficiently contrite. But, in recent years, U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis has begun to direct his public ire at an unusual target for a Reagan-appointed judge: laws that impose lengthy mandatory minimum sentences judges have no authority to waive or reduce.

"Ellis has complained directly to Congress about what he's called the 'excessive' sentences required for some offenders. He's also publicly lamented the situation, as he did recently during a drug dealer's sentencing that took place in an Alexandria, Virginia courtroom packed with national media, high-powered prosecutors and others awaiting a key hearing in the case against Manafort." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c56c81f33da03fa71f6b1f7952e913f496279ee73dc13f1c6541f311c324a985e61116965b64afb21b

CORRECTION: Yesterday we put in an AP story "Sanctioned Russian oligarch linked to Cohen has vast U.S. ties." This story has been updated and corrected, including to "reflect that it was [Andrew] Intrater's investment firm that hired Cohen as a consultant, not Intrater himself." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c50b9ad18abda4fc813a5d2062c38630ffa6280c84873be69a90702dda67c4ca3c6c64464071abef69

PAGING SUSAN COLLINS -- BILL SCHER: "Will Susan Collins Get Snookered Again?": "Senator Susan Collins of Maine really wants you know that she's not going to rubber stamp just anyone who President Donald Trump nominates for the Supreme Court.

"In recent days she has embarked on a mini-media tour, telling viewers of CNN, ABC and listeners of the New York Times' 'The Daily' podcast that a nominee "'who would overturn Roe v. Wade would not be acceptable to me.' Also disqualifying would be an 'activist judge' who 'demonstrated a disrespect for the vital principle of stare decisis,' meaning deference to past Supreme Court precedents.

"Her problem? Nobody believes her." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5900428a76406c509d4769dc0d34c572ffb878aa1bdea35f0621afa6795aa63a673f85e581e586735

BORDER TALES - NYT's Caitlin Dickerson: "In hundreds of cases, Customs agents deleted the initial records in which parents and children were listed together as a family with a 'family identification number,' according to two officials at the Department of Homeland Security, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the process. As a result, the parents and children appeared in federal computers to have no connection to one another." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5ed575a7392125856052d194cb04df46c80b2000cf1e08e19f485434bcfe1eb94eb403da7a74f9f02

-- DHS SPOKESPERSON KATIE WALDMAN pushes back at the claim: "Not only is it categorically false that DHS destroyed records, but the opposite is true: DHS personnel has worked hand-in-hand with HHS personnel to share clear data in the most useful formats possible for HHS - which included names, dates of apprehension, and identifying alien numbers for both children and parents who were separated as a result of zero-tolerance."

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "NATO, Under Fire From Trump, to Trumpet Its Heightened Readiness," by WSJ's Daniel Michaels: "Broadsides against NATO from U.S. President Donald Trump on European defense spending-and worries about Russia's resurgence-have sped a transformation that has put the trans-Atlantic military alliance on its best operational footing in years. Officials and diplomats at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization hope to convey that message at a summit next week.

"Many fear Mr. Trump will attack the alliance, as he did at a NATO gathering last year, or condemn the broader Western multilateral order, as he did at a Group of Seven meeting last month. ... Only four of NATO's 27 European members met defense-budget targets last year, while under Mr. Trump, U.S. defense spending on Europe has more than doubled.

"Yet signs of improvement are evident. The number of troops ready to deploy is rising and their readiness is increasing, alliance officials say. NATO is conducting maneuvers to show it can mobilize forces quickly, putting troops from one country under command of another to boost integration and working to improve basic infrastructure such as roads and bridges to support military equipment. Eight members are expected to hit their spending targets by year-end, and at least 16 are on a path to get there." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5003c8e1c86147deccaf7ada00d2c97a8decde3a68e4d0730c544926bc7347e8a2d5566640d5f08b1

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "U.K. police race to find source of new nerve agent poisoning," by AP's Matt Dunham and Gregory Katz in Amesbury, England: "British police scoured sections of Salisbury and Amesbury in southwest England on Friday, searching for a small vial feared to be contaminated with traces of the deadly nerve agent Novichok. ... Police believe the couple may have come in contact with a contaminated vial or other item discarded in a public place after a March nerve agent attack on ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Salisbury. British officials blamed the Skripals' poisoning on Russia. The Kremlin denies any involvement."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5ba9f7de9de600e3f1b79eff1341e44244ed2d74e42ac64181928e6740db34c4f6d3f6078b4f8b85a

HMM -- "NYC's De Blasio shuttled from Canada vacation in counterterrorism plane," by Fox's Bradford Betz: "A $3 million NYPD counterterrorism plane on Thursday was used to transport Mayor Bill de Blasio from his Canada vacation to the Bronx for a brief memorial appearance, The New York Post reported, citing police sources.

"De Blasio's decision was questioned by some police sources, who noted that the cost far exceeded commercial transportation. One source estimated the mayor's trip cost in the thousands. ... A spokesman for the mayor's office told the paper it was the mayor's first time using the plane but didn't comment on why the decision was made. The NYPD made no comment on their decision to transport the mayor." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5228b1f4dd59dc533e6fe388a9592a1a3f4b023bf04e84ac1f35d1f4c566ae5918629c6b1775f02a6

MEDIAWATCH -- JACK SHAFER: "The State of New Jersey Wants to Subsidize News. Uh-oh": "Unless you live in a bomb shelter and have canceled your cable TV and internet services, you've heard that the newspaper business has run aground. ... The state of New Jersey thinks it's found the secret to making the desert bloom: A $5 million subsidy for a university-led consortium that will dispense grants for local news coverage.

"'Never before has a state taken the lead to address the growing crisis in local news,' said Mike Rispoli of the Free Press Action Fund, the advocacy group that advanced the consortium idea. ... If you think $5 million won't go very far in a state the size, and with the corruption problems, of New Jersey, you're right. ... According to NJBiz, a staff of four will be hired to oversee the non-profit program while taking direction from a 13-member board of directors chosen by the governor, the legislature, five participating universities and others.

"With so many hands stirring the pot, how good will the consortium soup be? FiveThirtyEight ranks New Jersey as one of the most corrupt states in the country despite having the most vigilant anti-corruption laws, so the state obviously needs watchdogging. But what confidence should we have that the state will happily fund investigations into its own malfeasance? ... If 'trustworthy' news is the objective, a government consortium can't be the solution." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c5c45c829e003280063a62ffe6228741c91b5c59c1fca1aa04a15744c78f8584e9c9dbb92ae77f5297

TV TONIGHT -- Bob Costa has the Boston Herald's Kimberly Atkins, WaPo's Seung Min Kim and NYT's Mark Landler tonight on PBS' "Washington Week" at 8 p.m.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE -- Jordan Eason has left as press secretary of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy and moved over to the VA, where he is now special assistant to the secretary.

ENGAGED - André Bauer, a CNN political commentator, businessman and former South Carolina lieutenant governor, proposed to Meredith Carter, a registered nurse who also works with him on his real estate portfolio. "The proposal happened Tuesday atop the iconic Ravenel Bridge in Charleston, S.C. The next day he surprised her with a trip to Washington, D.C. to celebrate the Fourth of July at the White House." Pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fb2a72f0c687c7c51b6d77fd693f3450d3cfd0cc6855bc8931c4e4f8686507f9d9c2af3cf423e5e0ed4a1255174f0273

-- Benjamin Feit, general counsel for Massachusetts Secretary of State candidate Josh Zakim, proposed to Nicole Gill, executive director of Tax March and an SKDKnickerbocker alum. Pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c97c41b9c2677971aa8f70c7cfd9c030808b439a1622552472d0b49064ca0f340c5853ecb4904dbad3b75d17f376aff0

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Austin Ramzy, a Hong Kong correspondent for the New York Times and a Time alum, recently married Angie Baecker, a doctoral candidate in modern Chinese cultural studies at the University of Michigan. The couple wed at the Frank Lloyd Wright Estate in Orinda, Calif. Pics http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c97c41b9c26779718d2943b0a345d12c86256047bf88c53d7b60646efc6552d151144a05c8f4f6e7af5d55d04c701bcc ... http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c97c41b9c2677971bcdf97a912890b1bf4eb4159c1afb165f873739f1c6f14eac725145aac9a53268476e0c2e5bbc708

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Allison Ball, Kentucky's state treasurer and at 36 currently the nation's youngest female statewide elected official, and Asa James Swan, chief of staff for the Kentucky Dept. of Transportation and an alum of former Rep. Ron Lewis (R-Ky.) and the Senate Republican Conference, on Tuesday welcomed a son, Levi Adrian Swan, who came in at 6 lbs., 15 oz. and 20.5 inches. Pic http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c97c41b9c26779717068bff3aa7fa67046c486684e98a16548b77171953dba29cc3c8d0866ae35e6e67c73070622770b

HAPPY 50TH ANNIVERSARY to lawyer Tim Ryan and Kayo Ryan, celebrating on Catalina Island where they had their first kiss and where their daughter Kiki and Tim Burger got engaged in August 2012.

BONUS BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Jill Zuckman, managing director and president of D.C. public affairs at SKDKnickerbocker. A trend she thinks deserves more attention: "There's been a lot of attention paid to the opioid crisis afflicting our nation. But we haven't focused enough on the fact that the quantity of synthetic opioids coming into our country through the U.S. mail is skyrocketing. It has truly become a threat to our national security." Q&A: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c97c41b9c267797192d29b27e0493c666253938ca6864ddcc003b3ca2c5b5b721edb0b71d3dcf793cb6602efffb17be9

****** A message from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Trade works. Tariffs don't. See how hard your state will be hit by retaliatory tariffs on American exports at www.TheWrongApproach.com. ******

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