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Presented by Google: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day Jan 29, 2019 View in browser
By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

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CNN'S ARLETTE SAENZ (@ArletteSaenz): "As he deplaned a flight at Dulles, @JoeBiden told me he's in no hurry to announce whether he's running for president in 2020. 'I don't have any particular timetable. I don't think there's any hurry, but there's a bigger hurry to decide just personally.'"

WHAT CAN GO WRONG?! ... CNN'S MANU RAJU: "Graham urges Trump to tie debt limit to border security funding": "GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close ally of the President, told CNN that he spoke with Trump at dinner Monday night about 'what would a good deal look like' as lawmakers attempt to negotiate an agreement to stave off another government shutdown -- and floated the possibility that raising the debt limit could be part of the negotiation.

"Graham, the senior senator from South Carolina, said he is 'hopeful we can solve more than one problem' and added 'I think the President understands we need to raise the debt ceiling. It comes due in March, so why not just expedite things.'" CNN

-- THIS SEEMS LIKE such an epically bad idea. The debt limit is the most dangerous legislative tool Congress can play with.

THREAT ASSESSMENT ... REBECCA MORIN: "U.S. intelligence chief says North Korea unlikely to give up nuclear weapons": "'We currently assess that North Korea will seek to retain its [weapons of mass destruction] capabilities and is unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capabilities because its leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival,' National Intelligence Director Dan Coats said during a hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee.

"Trump, who has long pledged that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons, is expected to hold a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in late February. ... The national intelligence director also found himself at odds with the president's stance on Iran's nuclear capabilities. During the hearing, Coats said that Iran isn't taking any steps to make a nuclear weapon, but said that officials have 'publicly threatened to push the boundaries' of the Iran nuclear deal if it did not see any benefits from it." POLITICO

-- WAPO'S JOHN HUDSON and ELLEN NAKASHIMA: "Russia secretly offered North Korea a nuclear power plant, officials say": "The Russian offer, which intelligence officials became aware of in late 2018, marks a new attempt by Moscow to intervene in the high-stakes nuclear talks as it reasserts itself into a string of geopolitical flash points from the Middle East to South Asia to Latin America. Its latest bid is expected to unsettle Chinese and U.S. officials wary of granting Moscow an economic foothold on the Korean Peninsula.

"As a part of the deal, the Russian government would operate the plant and transfer all byproducts and waste back to Russia, reducing the risk that North Korea uses the power plant to build nuclear weapons while providing the impoverished country a new energy source." WaPo

-- CNN'S MANU RAJU (@mkraju): "Breaking with Trump, McConnell offers amendment that would 'acknowledge the plain fact that al Qaeda, ISIS and their affiliates in Syria and Afghanistan continue to pose a serious threat to us here at home. It would recognize the dangers of a precipitous withdrawal.'"

-- MARTIN MATISHAK: "Spy chief warns of foreign interference in 2020 election": "In a worldwide threat assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats wrote that competitors such as Russia, China and Iran 'probably already are looking to the 2020 U.S. elections as an opportunity to advance their interests.' ...

"The assessment offered by Coats, based on input from the entire U.S. intelligence community, predicts Russian social media campaigns will focus on 'aggravating' social and racial tensions and striking back at anti-Kremlin politicians. Moscow may also seek to spread disinformation, launch cyberattacks and manipulate data." POLITICO

-- NBC'S KEN DILANIAN (@KenDilanianNBC): "One big picture takeaway from this intelligence hearing: There are huge new challenges to the U.S. The president isn't talking about any of them. He's focused on the southern border, which doesn't come up in the threats assessment as a significant security issue."

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... DARREN SAMUELSOHN and MATTHEW CHOI: "Roger Stone pleads not guilty to Mueller lying charges": "The arraignment did hit some bumpy patches after the federal magistrate judge twice on Monday reprimanded Stone's attorneys for failing to properly fill out the paperwork naming a local counsel who could vouch for them because they aren't members of the D.C. bar.

"The attorneys blew about 90 minutes beyond their deadline on Tuesday morning before Peter Farkas, a Washington-based antitrust and intellectual property lawyer, entered a notice on behalf of Stone. Unlike most defendants in the Mueller probe, and in criminal cases overall, Stone has remained his blunt self since his indictment by continuing to speak publicly with reporters. ... Attorneys for both sides agreed that Stone's first status hearing before Judge Amy Berman Jackson will be at 1:30 p.m. on Feb. 1." POLITICO

-- SPOTTED: Stone eating lunch on Tuesday at The Palm.

-- NBC'S ALEX MOE (@AlexNBCNews): "'I think Mr. Mueller should speak for himself,' @SpeakerPelosi says when asked about Acting AG Whitaker saying the Mueller probe might wrap up soon"

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2020 WATCH ... MORE FROM SCHULTZ ...

-- CBS' JOHN DICKERSON interviews HOWARD SCHULTZ on "CBS THIS MORNING" ... DICKERSON: "Let me ask you this. Somebody says, 'Boy, he's gotten a tough reception. Guy next to him says, or woman next to him says, 'Yes, but this is Howard Schultz's big idea' -- which is what?" SCHULTZ: "The big idea is very simple: we are going to unite the country, for us to come together. To do everything we can to realize that the promise of America is for everyone."

DICKERSON: "But every politician is going to say that." SCHULTZ: "Yes, but no politician on the Republican or Democratic side can do it, because both parties are involved every single day in revenge politics. And can you imagine what powerful signal it will send to the Congress and to the country if for the first time since George Washington an independent person could be elected president?" The video

-- CAITLIN OPRYSKO: "Schultz rips Warren's 'ridiculous' plan to tax the super wealthy": "In an interview on NPR's 'Morning Edition,' Schultz, who has said he's considering an independent run for president, dinged liberal priorities like Medicare for all and tuition-free college, but it was Sen. Elizabeth Warren's proposal for increasing taxes on the super wealthy that he labeled 'ridiculous.'" POLITICO

-- SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (@ewarren): "What's 'ridiculous' is billionaires who think they can buy the presidency to keep the system rigged for themselves while opportunity slips away for everyone else. The top 0.1%, who'd pay my #UltraMillionaireTax, own about the same wealth as 90% of America. It's time for change."

THE NEXT A.G. ... MARIANNE LEVINE: "Senate Judiciary Committee delays vote on Barr": "At Tuesday's committee meeting, Senate Judiciary Committee ranking member Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said she remains troubled over a memo Barr wrote last year to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein that criticized Mueller's investigation into possible obstruction of justice by President Donald Trump. ...

"In his written answers to members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Barr reiterated that he would be as transparent as he could about the results of the investigation with Congress and the public. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to hold a vote next week on Barr's nomination, and he is expected to clear the panel." POLITICO

Good Tuesday afternoon. SPOTTED: Evan Bayh at Cafe Milano on Monday.

WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 8:45 a.m.: "A low level staffer that I hardly knew named Cliff Sims wrote yet another boring book based on made up stories and fiction. He pretended to be an insider when in fact he was nothing more than a gofer. He signed a non-disclosure agreement. He is a mess!" ... Daniel's story yesterday, about the president's displeasure with Sims and the book

-- TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN MICHAEL GLASSNER said the campaign is preparing to sue for violation of Sims' non-disclosure agreement. How can he be violating a non-disclosure agreement if the stories are made up!? (h/t Jon Allen)

THE SHUTDOWN IMPACT -- WAPO'S DANIELLE PAQUETTE: "The lowest-paid shutdown workers aren't getting back pay": "Unlike the 800,000 career public servants who are slated to receive full back pay over the next week or so, the contractors who clean, guard, cook and shoulder other jobs at federal workplaces aren't legally guaranteed a single penny. They're also among the lowest-paid laborers in the government economy, generally earning between $450 and $650 weekly, union leaders say." WaPo

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THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- BUZZFEED'S EMMA LOOP: "House Democrat Targets Steven Mnuchin's Business Dealings In The Russian Sanctions Fight": "California Rep. Jackie Speier, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, sent a letter to Mnuchin last week seeking answers about a deal he reportedly made in 2017 with an associate of Oleg Deripaska, the billionaire aluminum magnate whose companies Treasury surprisingly announced it would be taking off the formal sanctions list in December. The letter, sent Wednesday, was obtained by BuzzFeed News. ...

"Speier says she wants to learn more about Mnuchin's involvement with Leonid Blavatnik, a Ukrainian-born billionaire with whom he co-owned a Hollywood film company up until 2017. Mnuchin had to divest from RatPac-Dune Entertainment as part of his confirmation process and disclosed the sale of his shares, but the exact prices and purchasers are unknown. However, the Hollywood Reporter reported that Mnuchin sold the shares to Blavatnik for approximately $25 million." BuzzFeed

THE LATEST IN VENEZUELA -- NBC'S JOSH LEDERMAN (@JoshNBCNews): ".@StateDept warns Americans not to travel to #Venezuela: 'Do not travel to Venezuela due to crime, civil unrest, poor health infrastructure, and arbitrary arrest and detention of U.S. citizens.'"

BORDER TALES ... "The Trek Across the Border Veers Into More and More Remote Terrain," by NYT's Simon Romero and Caitlin Dickerson in Antelope Wells, N.M.: "The Border Patrol's tiny base in the southwest corner of New Mexico is so remote that the wind howls through the surrounding basin where jaguars still stalk their prey.

"But that hasn't stopped thousands of Central Americans from journeying in recent weeks to the rural outpost and other isolated points along the Southwest border, launching increasingly desperate bids for asylum in the United States. In a two-day span in January, 362 migrants surrendered to the Border Patrol in Antelope Wells, overwhelming the small base's capacity to process asylum requests. Last week, a new group of 306 migrants arrived at the same location, including children in need of immediate medical care - a situation officials in New Mexico say is without precedent." NYT

CLIMATE FILES ... WAPO'S ZOEANN MURPHY and CHRIS MOONEY: "Gone in a Generation: Across America, climate change is already disrupting lives": "The continental United States is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was a century ago. Seas at the coasts are nine inches higher. The damage is mounting from these fundamental changes, and Americans are living it. These are their stories." WaPo

AT THE FED ... WSJ'S NICK TIMIRAOS: "Plain-Spoken Fed Chairman Sometimes Leaves Markets Confused": "Early in his term as Fed chairman, beginning in February last year, [Chairman Jerome] Powell received praise from lawmakers on Capitol Hill and market watchers on Wall Street for bringing a plain-English approach to communicating about policy.

"But the more recent flubs demonstrate the risks of Mr. Powell's more conversational style as the central-bank head. ... Mr. Powell's communication misfires have resulted from his extemporaneous rather than prepared remarks, often on arcane topics of intense market interest." WSJ

TRADE WARS ... "Harley-Davidson Profit Is Wiped Out by President Trump's Tariffs," by Bloomberg's Gabrielle Coppola: "Harley-Davidson Inc. barely broke even in the last quarter of a year in which the struggling American icon got caught up in President Donald Trump's trade wars. The motorcycle maker's shares plunged the most in a year.

"Trump attacked Harley last year after it announced plans to shift some U.S. production overseas to sidestep levies imposed by the European Union. But the motorcycle maker has more than tariffs and angry tweets to blame for its performance. U.S. retail sales tumbled 10 percent in the three months ended in December, the eighth consecutive quarterly drop." Bloomberg

MORE ON THE 2020 FRONT -- WSJ'S KEN THOMAS in Manchester, N.H.: "Many Democrats Just Aren't Buying It From Billionaires": "Advisers to [Michael] Bloomberg have polled likely Democratic primary voters in recent weeks and determined that voters would be comfortable with a candidate whose wealth was self-made, according to a person familiar with the discussions. The person said the polling also found it 'matters enormously' to primary voters to know that a wealthy candidate had supported philanthropic causes." WSJ

-- STEPHANIE MURRAY in Manchester, N.H. and MARC CAPUTO: "Bloomberg takes more shots at Trump as he inches toward 2020 run"

-- CAITLIN OPRYSKO: "Flake passes on primary challenge to Trump in 2020"

MEDIAWATCH -- Jason Schwartz is joining Sports Illustrated as senior editor for investigations and enterprise. He covered media at POLITICO. ... Pam Fine will be the editor of The Chronicle of Higher Education. She was most recently a journalism professor and chair at the University of Kansas. The announcement

-- CNN'S BRIAN STELTER (@brianstelter): "Former Tallahassee mayor and Democratic nominee for FL governor @AndrewGillum is joining @CNN as a political commentator."

TRANSITIONS -- Justin Brasell and Brittany Comins have started the communications strategy firm Amplify. Brasell was the manager of Mitch McConnell's 2008 campaign and Comins previously was deputy chief of staff for former Rep. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.). ... Betsy Ankney will be political director for the NRSC. She previously was campaign manager for former Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner's 2018 re-election campaign. (hat tip: James Arkin and Daniel Strauss)

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE -- Charmaine Yoest will leave as associate director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy. (h/t Brianna Ehley)

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Pamela Dixon, press secretary at GSA, recently married Eric Pennington, a Deloitte consultant. The couple met at a Texas A&M alumni event. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Megan Essaheb, director of immigration advocacy at Advancing Justice | AAJC, and Kamal Essaheb, director of policy and advocacy at NILC, on Sunday welcomed Safiyya, who came in at 8 lbs. 9 oz. and joins big brother, Zaki. Pic

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