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Just watching the President's address and the analysis and was thinking that
I don't think at the end of the day the Gulf Spill will have that much of an
effect on politics. Heard the President call it the worst environmental
disaster in U.S. history. That will be true and this is really, really bad.
But at the end of the day with the bad economy and the fact that this
really won't affect many people unless you live in La, Ala, Miss, or Fla.,
people care more about their jobs and economy. People already realize
government is broken, this didn't tell them anything new. I was struck by
Keith Olbermann ranting about how horrible it was that Obama didn't take
this as a moment to "go big" and push for climate change legislation. But
really, I don't think many people care about that now. And they especially
don't care if they think they'll be taxed more or lose a job because of it.
The oil spill is localized really - it doesn't affect the air we breathe,
so people don't look at this as a call to arms. Katrina struck a nerve
because the economy was good and we saw people dying. While the birds
covered in oil are horrible to look at, people have bigger concerns. I
think the President correctly read the mood of the American people - they
have no appetite for energy legislation right now and even if he tried to
rally the American people they wouldn't follow until the economy gets better
and members of Congress know that. Going big would have further annoyed the
American people. He needs to show he is taking charge, beat up on BP and
then fix the economy. The chattering class I think are getting far more
exercised over the oil spill response than the American people. This isn't
too say that I don't think this is a horrible disaster, just that Keith
Olbermann drives me crazy as he really doesn't understand what is foremost
in the minds of the American people. Now, that said, I believe this is a
moment to call people to action, I just think you have to know your audience
and mostly the American people are singularly focused on the economy. This
is the same reason I think Afghanistan isn't becoming a political liability
for the Administration yet. People care more about the economy than
Afghanistan. Again, for Bush it was different - economy was better and
Iraq was a war of choice. I know you didn't ask, but just some thoughts.

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Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.co