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By Heather Caygle | 07/18/2017 07:55 AM EDT


With an assist from Jen Scholtes

GOP LEADERS EYE 'REPEAL ONLY' VOTE - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced late Monday night he will push the chamber to vote to repeal Obamacare without an immediate replacement after the GOP's health care plan imploded earlier in the evening. Sens. Mike Lee and Jerry Moran surprised everyone - including President Donald Trump - by jointly announcing their opposition to even beginning debate on the GOP plan. With Sens. Rand Paul and Susan Collins already on the record against taking up the bill, the opposition from Lee and Moran tanked the GOP's replacement proposal.

What's next: It's not as simple as having senators vote up-or-down to repeal Obamacare. Republicans would first need 50 votes to take up the House-passed Obamacare replacement - meaning there could be no more defections, Sen. John McCain would likely need to be back and at least two of the four publicly opposed senators would have to change their positions. If that happens - and that's a big if - McConnell then would call up an amendment to eliminate major parts of Obamacare, similar to the GOP-passed bill vetoed by President Barack Obama in 2015.

The Obamacare repeal received widespread GOP support in 2015, when there were no real consequences. But now, "GOP lawmakers have voiced severe doubts that such a plan can win the 50 votes necessary this year given the uncertainty it would throw onto insurance markets," Burgess and Jen Haberkorn report. Even before the Lee-Moran defections, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) was fuming about the process Monday, accusing McConnell of a "breach of trust" in the way he sold Medicaid changes to moderates. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee1996075a56d414c593a14c7798641bfe7fdf05c697e314e8de7f2d707dbbcd8dd7478db66c6f69ae58c4422b12151798

Reality check, via Politico Pulse's Dan Diamond: A straight Obamacare repeal could lead to 32 million fewer insured, based on CBO's estimate of Republicans' 2015 repeal legislation. More.

After the Moran-Lee announcement: Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) were on twitter pushing their alternative health care plan. And Sen. John McCain, still recovering from surgery, issued a statement calling for a bipartisan approach. "The Congress must now return to regular order, hold hearings, receive input from members of both parties, and heed the recommendations of our nation's governors," the Arizona Republican said in a statement.

Trump, meanwhile, was blindsided by the announcement from Lee (Utah) and Moran (Kansas), which happened as the president was having dinner and huddling with other GOP senators in a health care strategy session. During the dinner, Trump said Republicans would look like "dopes" if they couldn't get it together on health care, Tara Palmeri scooped. Here's Josh Dawsey with more from the White House: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee908b6328554039633fbdd5e70408c9f561a123b8c7816122ceba4316a767fd5e793e7481580dfefba5be4d71e4873e55

DRUMROLL PLEASE... House Budget Chairwoman Diane Black (R-Tenn.) is rolling out the GOP's fiscal 2018 budget proposal this morning, the first step to launching a major tax code rewrite later this year. You can view the plan (which went live at 6 a.m.) here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee14cc8495716c8f03f64a6a52112d5da9d041ddec4bdc89a16dd0cde56e721918f7e36adbdda9f0f920005c5f604228f7 But, as Sarah Ferris explains, there's a catch: "To unlock Congress' power to expedite tax overhaul this year, GOP lawmakers would need to slash billions from politically sensitive programs like food stamps, student aid and federal pension funds."

Budget faces uncertain fate: The proposal is expected to survive a committee markup this week but its chances on the floor are unclear. Centrist Republicans are balking at the $200 billion in mandatory cuts, threatening to withhold their support. And House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) told reporters Monday the mandatory cuts aren't steep enough to garner conservatives' backing. Sarah with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16deeb2ba53a1f5bd6468d04ad64c75d678d9646c1893eddbc30b6a4165fef6298e5cb30daf5c5c90f04c715d94fc2096bd1d

WELCOME TO JULY 18, WHERE WE CAN'T BELIEVE IT'S ONLY TUESDAY. Thanks for reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Rep. Todd Rokita's comments about likely Senate GOP rival Rep. Luke Messer and the story about West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney hiring a sitting Maryland state senator to run his office tied for most clicks yesterday.

CLUELESSNESS HURTS PARTISAN OMNIBUS IDEA - House leaders could make a decision as early as today on whether to forge ahead or give up on the dream of passing a partisan spending package before August recess. The GOP launched a whipping operation Monday night to see if enough Republicans will get on board to pass a 12-bill spending bundle without Democratic votes.

Their biggest impediment? Most lawmakers are still altogether clueless about what's in the 12 individual funding bills, and the House Appropriations Committee hasn't yet approved them all. "You've got to see the product first, and right now it's still in the works," Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), an appropriations cardinal, told POLITICO after GOP leaders worked to get 218 Republicans committed during Monday night votes.

GOP EYES WRAY CONFIRMATION BEFORE RECESS - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell hopes to leave for August recess with at least on thing accomplished: Christopher Wray confirmed as FBI director. Wray sailed through his confirmation hearing last week and has already picked up support from some Democrats for what is typically a position that receives strong bipartisan backing. The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote on Wray's nomination Thursday. Seung Min: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee3b4cf6082591249bdc8b6484eb4e800bf22d829cedd462a91c77fde85a432ab0b271b0cd6dc70446d2091bb87d1fbd00

THE DEBT CEILING DIVIDE - Republican leaders in both chambers still haven't decided on a debt ceiling strategy, Rachael and Burgess report. With the Senate's health care push fading quickly, GOP leaders are eyeing a debt ceiling increase before the August recess, possibly attaching it to a must-pass veterans bill. But the House has other plans, with leaders preferring to increase the debt limit much closer to the drop-dead deadline to do so, which the CBO estimates will come sometime in October. "The reality is that striking a debt agreement will likely take much longer than two weeks," they report. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16deeab89f4bdb28cf03b21da27d3d2f26bfac22656f801e23f74ebd69b04d56380df6023fec9a41320ed25173c4b7304f8c6

ISIS BRIEFINGS THIS WEEK - Defense Secretary James Mattis and Gen. Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be on Capitol Hill tomorrow for an all-senators briefing on the fight against ISIS starting at 3 p.m., Connor O'Brien reports. They will be back to brief the House on Thursday.

THREATENING NOTE LEFT AT HELLER'S OFFICE - We now know that Sen. Dean Heller's Las Vegas office wasn't actually burglarized over the weekend, as initially reported. Instead, someone left a threatening note "asserting that he would lose his health care if the key senator voted for the repeal bill and that he would die if that happened and would take Heller with him, a law enforcement source said," Jon Ralston reports for the Nevada Independent. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee6078b11cfe082528929c76122e5c812a15269b5c1bb1902ce40dfcf647e4d1cd23da850b3775ad2e9b99987d90a73924

GRASSLEY'S STILL GOT IT - At nearly 84 years old, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is still an avid runner, sometimes jogging around the Capitol as early as 4 a.m. But that's not all the Senate Judiciary chairman does to keep up his fitness routine, as evidenced by a push-up contest Monday against Bloomberg's Kevin Cirilli. Watch the video: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16deed478b50e72d4dcda94d7193b7d76f39fc43f9d54c63451b30df5946c16c4d7368ed3e48187bede1b696392303c106653

GLOVES OFF IN HOOSIER STATE SHOWDOWN - Neither Rep. Todd Rokita nor Luke Messer have officially declared they're running for Senate next year but you'd have no idea based on the way the two continue to duke it out publicly. Messer sent a lengthy email to supporters Monday titled "I'm tired of Todd Rokita lying about my family," the latest salvo in a shadow war as both lawmakers prepare to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. The Hill's Ben Kamisar with more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee7e8706694958eab6115dc16b6c039f24234e168e69afb08deb3677584c23d8b4abf1c04105324f3b82dff2e17be6ea60

POLICE INVESTIGATING AFTER DRIVER STRIKES BARRIER - Capitol Hill was on alert Monday after a driver struck a campus barricade and police vehicle. "After nearly four hours, U.S. Capitol Police said there is 'no evidence to indicate any nexus to terrorism at this time' but a suspect faces several charges," ABC News reports. "U.S. Capitol Police closed off several streets and detonated two controlled explosions to investigate whether the vehicle contained dangerous materials. At 3:30 p.m., police announced the vehicle was cleared 'with negative results.'" John Parkinson and Dakshayani Shankar: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee0f906c73ef7583a7f8ff8b3b544d3fdee6366f4f5999d074c83f542c477dbb1e11752c46ca261e15b14c5d832f98a0bc

ARRIVAL LOUNGE - Ricki Eshman is being promoted to press secretary for Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). She was previously deputy press secretary and also worked in then-Gov. Hassan's press office. Ricki replaces Meira Bernstein, whose last day was Friday.

TODAY IN CONGRESS - The Senate meets at 10 a.m. with a confirmation vote of Defense Deputy Secretary nominee Patrick Shanahan at 12:15 p.m. The Senate will then recess for weekly caucus lunches until 2:15 p.m. The House meets at 10 a.m. with first votes at 2 p.m. and last votes at 5 p.m. Today's agenda: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee75f370e076ec53f76f7ac6e77a8703c91fff9fd2753195ff50fdc47c6f1d6d44df238fbd78e0ddf08a10a8a6c635b79a

AROUND THE HILL - Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Reps. Mia Love (R-Utah), Doug Collins (R-Ga.) and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) participate in a forum on reforming the female prison system from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the Newseum. Speaking schedule here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a53675ff83c16dee723cf41ba2aebd176e3b638d9fa21076349780ed1aa3bcfcf09f6db3642a46c91527b672f6edad1fd0800e06e5498596

Sens. Tom Udall (D-N.M.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Al Franken (D-Minn.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) lead a roundtable on the potential impact of the GOP's health care bill on Tribal communities at 9:30 a.m. in 628 Dirksen.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) hold a post-conference presser in the RNC lobby at 10 a.m. House Budget Committee Chairwoman Diane Black (R-Tenn.) holds a press conference on the GOP's fiscal 2018 budget proposal at 10:30 a.m. in HVC Studio A.

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) holds his weekly pen and pad at 11 a.m. in H-144. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) holds a press conference on agricultural workers and immigration at 11:30 a.m. in the House triangle.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.) and other House Democrats hold a press conference to unveil a "comprehensive package of democracy reforms" at 12 p.m. in HVC Studio A.

Pelosi and Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) take part in a panel discussion on the Puerto Rican economy at 2 p.m. in 2360 Rayburn. House Budget ranking member John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) holds a pen and pad on the GOP's 2018 budget proposal at 2:15 in Pelosi's conference room, near the Rayburn room.

House Judiciary ranking member John Conyers (D-Mich.), CBC Chairman Cedric Richmond (D-La.) and other Judiciary Democrats and members of the CBC hold a voting rights forum at 3 p.m. in 2247 Rayburn.

Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) will give opening remarks at a Faith & Politics Institute forum on the opioid epidemic starting at 7 p.m. in CVC 217. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) will then participate in a discussion with journalist Sam Quinones, who recently wrote a book on the crisis.

MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Naomi Charalambakis correctly guessed that Sen. John McCain would hold his breath in anger as a young child, to the point of passing out. His parents would dunk him in an ice bath to try and stop him.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Naomi with today's question: While in law school, this former president typically ate a very specific type of candy bar for breakfast. Name the president, the school he attended and his breakfast candy of choice. The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send answers my way: hcaygle@politico.com

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