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By Elena Schneider | 02/07/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard, Zach Montellaro and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WAVE WATCH - Democrats celebrated Tuesday night after the party picked up a seat in the Missouri state House in a special election. The Jefferson County-based district voted for President Donald Trump by a 28-point margin in 2016, but Democrat Mike Revis defeated Republican David Linton by nearly 4 points on Tuesday. Democrats also over-performed in three other, bright-red districts.

- Democrats say it's the latest sign of a building wave, noting that it's the 35th state legislative seat the party has flipped since Trump's election. Some Republicans, on the other hand, are pointing the finger at scandal-plagued Gov. Eric Greitens for dragging the party down.

- From the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jack Suntrup: "Revis, 27, a procurement manager at A-B InBev ... described himself as a centrist Democrat focused on education, expanded access to health care, and support for the labor community. ... Linton, 59, an attorney, homed in on his opposition to abortion and support for the Second Amendment during the campaign, saying he would defend the life, liberty and property of his constituents." Full story.

- Few were celebrating more Tuesday night than vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who tweeted her congratulations to Revis. And it comes on the same day that the Post-Dispatch published a story following reporting from Campaign Pro and others that some Republicans are feeling "buyer's remorse" about state Attorney General Josh Hawley's Senate candidacy. Full story.

- But former Sens. Jack Danforth (R-Mo.) and Jim Talent (R-Mo.), whom McCaskill defeated in 2006, rose to Hawley's defense on Tuesday, the Kansas City Star reported. Full story.

FIRST IN SCORE - Blackburn reserves $1M in airtime for Tennessee primary: Rep. Marsha Blackburn has reserved $1 million worth of airtime for her primary against former Rep. Stephen Fincher, making her the first Senate candidate this cycle to reserve a significant chunk of airwaves. Ward Baker, a top strategist for Blackburn, wrote in a memo that the buy covers April 27 to Aug. 2 in markets throughout the state, especially "premium inventory within the highest-rated programs for GOP primary voters on Fox News [Channel]." The move should help the Blackburn campaign save money, especially with congressional, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns competing for airtime. Read the memo here.

BATTLE PLAN - "Democratic Group Targets All-G.O.P. States to Attack Gerrymandering," by The New York Times' Alexander Burns: "The National Democratic Redistricting Committee, formed last year under the leadership of Eric H. Holder Jr., the former attorney general, has settled on a strategy to contest a combination of governorships, legislative seats and more obscure state offices to chip away at Republicans' sweeping control of the redistricting process. Mr. Holder said in an interview that the group was chiefly determined to deny Republicans so-called trifectas in state governments - places where a single party controls the governorship and an entire legislature, as Republicans do in Ohio
and Florida, among other critical battlegrounds." Full story.

Days until the 2018 election: 272

Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

ELEPHANT'S MEMORY - "Pence seeks revenge against Manchin," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Matthew Nussbaum: "Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Joe Manchin thought they had a deal. Manchin told Pence last August he could not vote for the latest plan to repeal Obamacare but was committed to working on a bipartisan tax cut bill, according to Manchin and administration sources familiar with the private conversation, which took place at a tax reform event in the mountains of West Virginia. But Manchin went further, according to administration officials and Republicans briefed on the conversation, and promised Pence that he would support the tax bill and give it the bipartisan sheen that
President Donald Trump was eagerly seeking. Manchin disputes that telling, but four months later, he voted no - and Pence has not forgotten about it." Full story.

TPAW-MENTUM? - "Pawlenty to leave Financial Services Roundtable," by POLITICO's Zachary Warmbrodt and Daniel Strauss: "Financial Services Roundtable CEO Tim Pawlenty will step down from the trade group in March amid speculation that he might campaign for another term as Minnesota's governor. ... Pawlenty plans to hold a meeting in Minneapolis next week with donors and political operatives as he considers running for governor again. 'Governor Pawlenty is considering running for governor and will be talking with Minnesotans over the coming weeks to assess support and gather advice,' Brian McClung, a former aide and longtime adviser to Pawlenty, said." Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - CLF pops new TV ad in PA-18: The Congressional Leadership Fund released its third TV ad in the Pennsylvania special election, centering on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and tax reform. "A $2,900 middle-class tax cut for our community. ... Yet Nancy Pelosi and Conor Lamb are still opposing your tax cut. Lamb called it a complete betrayal," the ad's narrator says, before cutting to Pelosi calling the tax cut "crumbs." The ad is part of CLF's $1.7 million ad buy in the district. Watch the ad here.

- NRCC also hits Pelosi's 'crumbs' comments in PA-18 ad: The National Republican Congressional Committee's ad says Pelosi "is calling your tax cuts 'crumbs' and 'pathetic.'" The ad's narrator then says, "Conor Lamb sounds just like her. They're even using the same crummy words," spotlighting quotes from both Pelosi and Lamb that called the new tax law a "betrayal" of "the middle class." Check out the ad here. Full story.

MORE FROM THE AIRWAVES - "Bolton using Wisconsin ads, polling to sell national security issues," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "John Bolton wants to make national security a top issue in the 2018 elections - and the George W. Bush-era U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is using the GOP Senate primary in Wisconsin to make his point. Bolton's super PAC spent $1 million on television and digital ads boosting Kevin Nicholson, a veteran and businessman, in the GOP primary to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Nicholson is facing state Sen. Leah Vukmir in the GOP primary. The ads played up Nicholson's service in Iraq and Afghanistan. It was a test, backed up by before-and-after
polling in the Green Bay media market. The ads caused Nicholson's approval ratings to spike in that market, according to polling from WPA Intelligence." Full story.

- Gil Cisneros focuses on leadership in TV ad: Democrat Gil Cisneros, who's running to replace California GOP Rep. Ed Royce, released a biographical TV ad spotlighting his career in the Navy and explaining that "when fortune struck" by winning the lottery, he "launched a foundation that's helping kids across the country go to college." The ad doesn't mention Trump explicitly, but when saying that "Washington is shutting them out" and "working only for the wealthy," it flashes images of the president on TV screens. The ad started airing on Tuesday on cable stations in the district. Watch the ad here.

- Hunter Hill pops first TV ad in Georgia governor's race: Republican Hunter Hill, a former state senator, highlighted that he's an Army ranger and that "unlike these guys, I'm not a career politician," gesturing to two men in suits standing next to him. Hill, along with the suited men, run through an obstacle course, as Hill says: "Georgia's next governor will face many obstacles. That's why we need true conservative leadership that delivers results." Hill promises to stop sanctuary cities and eliminate the state income tax. Watch the ad here.

AT THE WHITE HOUSE - "Comstock to Trump: 'We don't need a shutdown over this,'" by The Washington Post's Jenna Portnoy: "Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) clashed with President Trump at the White House Tuesday over his desire to shut down the government to force a compromise on legislation to curtail MS-13. ... 'We don't need a government shutdown on this. I think both sides have learned that a government shutdown was bad, it wasn't good for them.' ... Trump interrupted her to insist Democrats were not in agreement. 'You can say what you want,' he said. 'We're not getting support from the Democrats on this legislation.'" Full story.

REDISTRICTING WATCH - "Bipartisan deal finalized, voters to decide congressional redistricting changes," by The Columbus Dispatch's Jim Siegel: "Ohio voters will decide in May whether to approve significant changes to Ohio's partisan congressional redistricting process, the result of a bipartisan legislative agreement. The Ohio House voted 82-10 today to place the plan on the primary ballot, ending two weeks of grinding negotiations among Republicans, Democrats and leaders of the Fair District = Fair Elections coalition that was pushing a proposal for the November ballot." Full story.

- "Supreme Court temporarily blocks Stanford professor's election districts for Wake and Mecklenburg," by The Raleigh News and Observer's Anne Blythe: "The U.S. Supreme Court temporarily blocked a Stanford University law professor's election districts for state General Assembly seats in Wake and Mecklenburg counties while leaving his maps in place in six other counties while lawmakers appeal a three-judge panel's ruling. Chief Justice John Roberts, who hears emergency requests from North Carolina, agreed to partially grant the petition for emergency relief days before candidates are set to file for office. The order was released early Tuesday evening, and does not elaborate on why election
districts for North Carolina's two largest urban counties were the only two the court blocked." Full story.

2020 WATCH - "Inside Biden's 2018 - and possibly 2020 - plans," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Joe Biden has started recruiting top donors for his PAC's finance committee - but some of them are resisting signing on, wary that he'll decide again not to pull the trigger on a presidential bid and that their money might be better spent elsewhere. They want to see clear moves that his own campaign is underway before writing him more checks. That's not coming anytime soon: though Biden has mapped out ambitious plans to help Democrats running in this year's midterms, he's hasn't set a timeline for deciding on a 2020 bid, let alone decided to run, according to four people who've spoken with
him." Full story.

- "Julián Castro to test 2020 run with New Hampshire Young Democrats speech," by NBC News' Suzanne Gamboa: "Castro, 43, has been up front about his interest in a run for the nation's highest office. He formed the Opportunity First political action committee last year and publicly launched it this year. 'I have every interest in running' in 2020 for president, Castro told NBC News.'" Full story.

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS - "Tied to Trump, these two California Republican congressmen lag in poll," by The Sacramento Bee's Emily Cadei: "Majorities of likely voters in the districts of Republican Reps. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and Steve Knight of Lancaster aren't happy with Trump and are disinclined to vote for their representative's reelection. The polling, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) in mid-January, finds that support for the two Republicans' reelection is highly correlated with voter opinions about the president's job approval, their 2016 presidential vote, and GOP control of Congress." Full story.

- "Kim Reynolds leads all Democratic challengers in 2018 race for governor," by The Des Moines Register's Jason Noble: "If the election for Iowa governor were held today, incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds would defeat all five of the leading Democrats trying to succeed her as the state's chief executive. The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll suggests two of those would-be challengers - state Sen. Nate Boulton and retired businessman Fred Hubbell - are more competitive with Reynolds than other Democrats in the race, but also indicates a high level of uncertainty and lingering unfamiliarity with the wide field of challengers." Full story.

- "Graham, Putnam barely lead, threatened by Levine and DeSantis in new poll," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "In the Democratic race, former Tallahassee congresswoman [Gwen] Graham clings to a 20-17 percent lead over former Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine [in a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll], with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum at 10 percent and Winter Park businessman Chris King at 4 percent. For the Republicans, state Agriculture Commissioner [Adam] Putnam leads Rep. Ron DeSantis 27-23 percent with Florida House Speaker Richard Corcoran trailing at a distant 7 percent. Corcoran has not announced his campaign but is expected to after the end of the March 9 legislative session."
Full story.

SEEING GREEN - "These Red-State Democrats Think Legal Marijuana Can Help Them Win," by James Higdon in POLITICO Magazine: "Not so long ago - like maybe last cycle - a Democratic challenger in a state this conservative wouldn't have been caught dead making an unqualified endorsement of a drug federal authorities still consider as dangerous as heroin by categorizing it as Schedule 1. But attitudes about marijuana, not to mention state laws, have changed so quickly and so broadly across the country that Democrats even in deeply red states like Indiana not only don't fear talking about the issue, they think it might be a key in 2018 to toppling Republican incumbents." Full story.

WAY DOWN THE BALLOT - "Minnesota lawmakers scramble to prevent Medicare plan cancellations," by POLITICO's Adam Cancryn and Paul Demko: "Minnesota lawmakers are trying to head off an obscure policy change that could kick roughly 600,000 seniors off their health plans just before Election Day - setting up a potentially combustible issue in one of the premier 2018 battlegrounds." Full story.

GETTING THE NOD - EMILY's List backs Connie Pillich in Ohio: EMILY's List announced its endorsement of Democrat Connie Pillich in her bid for governor of Ohio.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If you go to work and you know somebody's been in your state campaigning against you - it might be a person you've worked with and you considered a friend - I can tell you, that deteriorates that trust and that friendship level that you had before." - West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, said to urge "his colleagues to sign a pledge vowing not to campaign against other sitting senators," CNN reported.

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