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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


THE 2012 MATH - THEY CALL THAT A 'TREND' - President Barack Obama's approval ratings crossed the 50-percent mark in three major national polls this week, marking a clear uptick in the president's standing since just a month ago. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal survey has Obama's approval at 53 percent, up 8 points since December. Earlier this week, ABC News and the Washington Post had Obama at 54 percent and CNN/Opinion Research placed him at 53 percent - a 5-point jump in both polls, over last month's numbers. There are still polls that show a dimmer picture for the president: Gallup's tracking poll had Obama at 49 percent yesterday, with a 43 percent disapproval rating. But Democratic pollster Peter Hart explained the NBC/WSJ poll this way: "The president has the benefit of the doubt, and Republicans, based on this data, have the burden of proof." http://on.wsj.com/eAHV9j and http://wapo.st/f6SHmq and http://bit.ly/fcLS2k


FIRST IN SCORE - KNIFE FIGHTER: The Democratic Governors Association has chosen Lis Smith, a veteran of former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's 2010 campaign, to serve as its new communications director. Smith's appointment puts an aggressive and battle-tested operative in place to serve as the DGA's chief spokesperson as it prepares to compete in four off-cycle elections - and as Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley leans into his role as chairman of a national campaign committee. The Dartmouth grad has worked on nine campaigns and was on the front lines of both governor's races in 2009, first working for ex-DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe's primary campaign in Virginia and then signing on with New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine for the general election. Prior to that, Smith worked for several Midwestern Democrats, including Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill.


As Ted Cruz goes for it, David Rivera sweats and the Mike Pence draft takes shape, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


SENATE SIREN - MURPHY IN? Connecticut blogger-pol Kevin Rennie says today is the big day for Rep. Chris Murphy, who would be the second Democrat to announce for outgoing Sen. Joe Lieberman's Senate seat. Rennie: "Murphy will announce Thursday that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the United States Senate ... On Monday, damaged former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz formed a committee to run for the nomination and released a poll showing her the favorite ... [A]n internal Murphy poll has the Cheshire Democrat leading Bysiewicz 47% to 35% among Connecticut Democrats." http://bit.ly/dRDZzF


THE 2012 SCORE - STRAW POLL IN N.H. - WMUR's James Pindell: "On Saturday, January 22, ABC News and WMUR-TV are teaming up for a first ever 'straw poll' sanctioned by the New Hampshire Republican State Committee to see just what kind of buzz these 2012 candidates have among the party faithful. This Saturday, the 493 members of the New Hampshire Republican party will gather at the Pinkerton Academy in Derry, New Hampshire for their annual meeting. While there, each one of these party members will be able to anonymously choose the candidate they'd like to see as the party's nominee for 2012." There's a significant caveat to the GOP-only canvass: "Independent voters are expected to make up roughly 40 percent of the Republican primary electorate. Even so, this early stage of the process the views of the state's most sophisticated and influential Republican operatives can give us some insights to the potentials - and pitfalls - for the growing cast of White House wannabes" Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has consistently led New Hampshire primary polling by wide margins. http://bit.ly/erICAO


AND - SANTORUM BULKS UP: The former Pennsylvania senator named activist Claira Monier to chair his state political action committee, joining state director Mike Biundo in steering the organization America's Foundation. Monier, who was on the staff of Gov. Meldrim Thompson and whose late husband was president of the state Senate, said in a statement that Santorum's "conservative message is resonating well in New Hampshire. He has demonstrated a deep understanding of the many challenges our country faces - both domestically and internationally - and I believe he has the right message for our state and our country at this critical time."


T-PAW'S IOWA CASH: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty spent $34,000 in Iowa in the closing weeks of the 2010 campaign, laying the groundwork for a presidential bid that requires him to bet heavily on the first-in-the-nation caucus state. AP: "Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, has been working hard to build a following in Iowa ... His late-election contributions to candidates and groups were double the amount made by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney during the same period. Including travel, consultants and other costs, Pawlenty's Iowa PAC spent $110,000 from mid-October through December. He raised the money through four-and-five figure checks, mostly from Minnesota donors. Romney spent about $108,000 and slightly outraised Pawlenty." http://bit.ly/eodYhL


THIS ONE GOES TO ELEVEN - Seven South Carolina state reps and four state senators announced their support for drafting Indiana Rep. Mike Pence into the presidential race yesterday. One, Rep. Kris Crawford, pointed to Pence as the kind of conservative the GOP could rally behind, arguing: "We cannot afford to nominate a weak, moderate candidate as we have in the past." Also on board are Reps. Eric Bedingfield, Phyllis Henderson, Dwight Loftis, Wendy Nanney, Ralph Norman and Gary Smith, and Sens. Lee Bright, Kevin Bryant, Ronnie Cromer and Phillip Shoopman. More details here: http://bit.ly/dL6VRB BACK IN WASHINGTON - SLAP FROM THE PODIUM: President Obama backhanded his ambassador to China during a joint appearance with Chinese President Hu Jintao, declaring that Jon Huntsman has "done an outstanding job as ambassador" and: "I'm sure that him having worked so well with me will be a great asset in any Republican primary." Huntsman didn't rule out a challenge to Obama during an interview with Newsweek, and reportedly met with political advisers on a recent visit to Washington. Ben Smith adds: "Neither White House spokesman Bill Burton nor State Department spokesman PJ Crowley responded earlier this week when I emailed, 'Have you guys sought or gotten any assurances from [Huntsman] on 2012?' http://politi.co/i3J8NT and http://politi.co/g4nnKG


TEA LEAVES - HUCKABEE EDITION - JMART READS 'EM: "Mike Huckabee and his top advisers insist that he's thinking seriously about running for president, but he's doing little to put together the sort of organization needed to mount a campaign. The latest evidence: Chip Saltsman, his campaign manager in 2008 and one of his closest confidantes, has accepted a job as Chief of Staff for freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.). In an interview, Saltsman said his taking the job should not be read as an indication about Huckabee's intentions. 'I have a Notre Dame clause in my contract,' he quipped. 'So I can leave if a presidential comes a calling.' ... Because of his devoted grassroots following in places like Iowa and South Carolina, the Arkansan doesn't need to create something from scratch. But if he's serious about running, he's going to need somebody like Saltsman to start working full-time at putting the band back together." http://politi.co/hD6Ali


AND YET - From South Carolina reporter @johnroconnor: "Former AR Gov. Mike Huckabee's book tour coming to Columbia and Anderson on March 7." http://bit.ly/gZW88xv


ARIZONA UPDATE - "Rep. Gabrielle Giffords stands on both feet, looks out window" - ABC News: "Giffords stood on both feet with assistance and looked out a window, another milestone in her recovery after a gunman fired a bullet through her brain during an attack in Tucson, Ariz., 11 days ago ... Giffords is expected to be transported Friday to the Institute for Rehabilitation and Research at Houston's Memorial Hermann hospital, which specializes in brain injuries, her office said today. The exact day of the move could change, depending on Giffords' condition." http://abcn.ws/f4VLy1


POLL OF THE DAY - LIKE SON, LIKE FATHER? Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is the frontrunner for the GOP's open-seat Senate nomination - but if libertarian Rep. Ron Paul jumps into the race he'll instantly give Dewhurst a run for his money. PPP: "The duo is basically tied with 23% saying Dewhurst would be their top pick as the GOP candidate and 21% picking Paul. ... The only other potential contender getting double digits on the Republican wish list right now is Attorney General Greg Abbott at 14%. Joe Barton at 7%, Elizabeth Ames Jones at 6%, Ted Cruz, Tom Leppert, and Michael Williams at 3%, and Roger Williams at 1% round out the folks we tested. Jones, Cruz, Leppert, and the two Williams' could all eventually become viable candidates in this race but for now their low poll standing is a reflection of the fact that they just aren't very well known." Of a potential Senate run, Paul told The Hill: "It's certainly crossed my mind." http://bit.ly/hvPQp4 and http://bit.ly/dELyvf


PLUS - CRUZ JUMPS IN: The former Texas solicitor general formally announced his campaign in a video yesterday, aligning himself with "an incredible grassroots movement ... dedicated to defending liberty and defending the Constitution." Cruz and Michael Williams are seen as having the best claim to the tea party mantle in the Senate race, so far. Watch the announcement here: http://bit.ly/eLB3Bj


IN THE HOUSE - RUNNING SCARED - Three Democratic members of Congress voted in favor of the GOP-backed proposal to repeal health care reform that cleared the House yesterday: Oklahoma Rep. Dan Boren, North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre and Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross. All three also opposed the initial health care bill last year - and all three are in districts that the GOP counts among its limited pickup opportunities for 2012. Boren told Fox earlier this month that he wasn't feeling much pressure from leadership to stick with the party line on a health care repeal vote: "I think after the shellacking, as they say, within our caucus, a lot of people realize, 'Hey, maybe you should listen to your constituents and vote your conscience' ... I haven't gotten a lot of pressure, a lot of pushback." http://bit.ly/eWiuh0


ONE-TERMER WATCH - THAT ESCALATED FAST: Freshman GOP Rep. David Rivera is now being investigated by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement for a series of questionable financial deals that have blossomed into a full-scale corruption probe. The Miami Herald: "[T]he scope of the Rivera probe appeared to be expanding on multiple fronts.... Investigators found that Flagler [Dog Track] paid $510,000 to Millennium Marketing -- a company owned by Rivera's mother and godmother -- as part of a deal for Rivera to manage a pro-slots political campaign on behalf of the parimutuel. ... Investigators are also examining Rivera's campaign spending, including $30,000 he paid to Millennium for campaign consulting in 2006, and $75,000 he paid last year to a now-defunct consulting company owned by the daughter of a top aide." http://bit.ly/dMvuTQ


TODAY - SHE'S BA-ACK: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is venturing out into public, or something like it, for a rare post-election appearance. The Sacramento Bee reports that Whitman will speak today at the Harvard Club in San Francisco, with attendance "limited to 20 young female alumni ... Whitman is also scheduled to address a group of women executive and entrepreneurs on Jan. 31 at a Redwood City event hosted by the business group the Bay Area Council. That event is closed to press and the general public." http://bit.ly/gKunG3


CODA - APOLOGY OF THE DAY: "Should anyone who heard those words and felt disenfranchised, I want to say, 'I'm sorry.' If you're not a person who can say you are sorry, you're not a very good leader." - Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley, backtracking after saying in his inaugural address that non-Christians are "not my brother and ... my sister." http://bit.ly/g2dtET

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