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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


THE 2012 SCORE - MR. NEW HAMPSHIRE - Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state, according to a Magellan Strategies poll, and leads his nearest rival - former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin - by 23 percentage points. NH Journal reports that the pollster has "Romney earning 39% and Palin earning 16%. Mike Huckabee (10%), Newt Gingrich (8%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (7%), former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (4%), Rick Santorum (3%) and MS Gov. Haley Barbour (1%) all trail significantly behind." http://bit.ly/evxM04


MORE - THE PALIN MATCH-UP: "Despite her ballot position, Palin is very popular with Republican voters. 59% view her favorably while 31% have an unfavorable view of her. More Independents (50%) have a favorable view of her than and unfavorable view (41%). This data reflects Independent voters who say they are likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Romney appears popular with all subgroups of the Republican electorate. Large percentages of seniors (76%), social conservatives (76%) and fiscal conservatives (76%) hold favorable views of him. ... Granite State Republicans are very comfortable with him as the presidential campaign season officially opens." http://bit.ly/evxM04


RNC SCOREBOARD - STATE OF PLAY: With a week to go before Republican National Committee members gather outside Washington to choose their new chairman, Wisconsin GOP Chairman Reince Priebus remains the favorite in the race with at least 36 commitments, according to POLITICO's running tally of public and private endorsements. Incumbent chairman Michael Steele trails at 23. Next up among the challengers are former state chairs Ann Wagner and Saul Anuzis, tied at 15, and former deputy RNC chair Maria Cino, at eight. A candidate must earn 85 votes to win. CURVE BALL - Ben Smith reports: "In the complicated rules of the Republican National Committee, a male chairman must have a female co-chairman, and vice versa; and commitments to the women running for co-chairman have been cited as reasons not to support the women running for chaiman. ... Now, changing the math -- and signaling that Ann Wagner or Maria Cino has a chance -- Louisiana GOP Chairman Roger F. Villere has gotten into the race for co-chairman." http://politi.co/gtnMeE


As Steve Israel assesses the red ink, Dean Heller looks like a winner and Buddy Roemer takes on Goldman Sachs, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


FRIDAY STANDINGS - BETTER OFF NOW? The new Congress is less than 48 hours old. The long-anticipated White House staff shakeup is officially underway. This is how Morning Score thinks some of the top pols and political players should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago?


BETTER OFF: (1) Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, whose oh-so-coy approach to the 2012 presidential campaign continues to make him irresistible to the national press, and whose obvious reluctance to join the fray doesn't seem to have hurt him yet; (2) New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, whose expanded role in shaping the Senate Democrats' message will make him something close to a political tactician-in-chief for his entire caucus during the 2012 cycle; (3) Kentucky Senate President David Williams, who raised $750,000 in the last quarter of 2010 for his gubernatorial campaign, strengthening his challenge to the cash-flush Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear.


WORSE OFF: (1) Nevada Sen. John Ensign, whose polling numbers have sunk to DOA territory, just a few months after PPP showed him surprisingly competitive in a GOP primary against Rep. Dean Heller; (2) Freshman GOP Rep. David Rivera of Florida, who spent the week of his swearing-in on the defensive over a series of questionable loans, consulting deals and real estate transactions dating to his previous service as a state representative; (3) The Bloomberg-for-president buzz, which faded to silence for the first time in a long time as the New York City mayor continued to apologize for a botched blizzard response - "I would give our grade as unacceptable," he said this week - and dodge questions about where he was when the Christmas snowstorm hit.


*** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org today. ***POPPING THIS A.M. - "BROKEN PROMISES" - The DNC takes a shot at the new House majority for backing off a pledge to cut $100 billion, in a video featuring clips from CNN's John King: "This is the Pledge to America. The House Republicans ran on this and there's two references at least to cutting at least $100 billion in the first year" ... Fox's Martha McCallum: "But now there's some serious doubts that the GOP can actually cut America's budget by the $100 billion that they promised in their pledge to America." ... And more: http://bit.ly/i6A0g5


PAWLENTY'S ROLLOUT - WORKING-CLASS HERO - Minnesota Public Radio previews the former governor's book, "Courage to Stand," due on bookshelves next Tuesday: "If [Pawlenty] does throw his hat in the ring, he would very likely be up against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Romney's father was a wealthy Detroit automobile executive and governor of Michigan. Pawlenty's dad drove a truck until he lost his job. Pawlenty spends a lot of his time making the case that's he's a regular guy who enjoys mowing the lawn of his modest suburban Twin Cities home. In one section of the book that describes Pawlenty being vetted as John McCain's possible running mate, he writes that he and his wife were practically buried in paperwork late one night without staff help. They joked that, 'no way is Mitt Romney doing this by himself.' ... Pawlenty ends the book by taking credit for dramatically reducing the growth of government spending in Minnesota. And he states that conservative leadership can work, in his words, 'even in a sea of liberals.'" http://bit.ly/eTYjjd


AND THE TV TOUR: Pawlenty's getting the full ABC News treatment ahead of the book release, starting with a "Nightline" profile this evening. Terry Moran interviewed Pawlenty and his wife, Mary, earlier this week for "Nightline" and George Stephanopoulos will speak with the governor on "Good Morning America" Tuesday.


PLUS - STAB IN THE BACHMANN - Pawlenty gave a cold reception to the news that Rep. Michele Bachmann is weighing a presidential bid, telling Politics Daily only that "it's a free country" and Bachmann's legally eligible to run. "Anyone can run that's over the age of 35," Pawlenty said. "I have respect for Michele Bachmann. I've had a cordial and positive relationship with her." http://aol.it/hrEo1K


SAVE THE DATE - NORTH TO THE FUTURE: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will visit New Hampshire next month to address an event dubbed the "Wild Irish Breakfast" in Nashua on St. Patrick's Day, WMUR's James Pindell reports. Gingrich is visiting another early primary state - South Carolina - to address a business group next week. http://bit.ly/h9Vr1N


KRISTOL FLOATS RYAN-RUBIO - The Weekly Standard scribe wrote Thursday afternoon: "Having just returned from the e21 and Manhattan Institute-sponsored Conversation with Paul Ryan (very ably conducted by Paul Gigot)--and having seen Marco Rubio speak recently as well, I'll just say this: Wouldn't it be easier just to agree now on a Ryan-Rubio ticket, and save everyone an awful lot of time, effort, and money over the next year and a half?" http://bit.ly/eTu7hL


NOW THERE'S A DARK HORSE: Former Gov. Buddy Roemer is considering a challenge to President Obama, the Republican told Louisiana political reporter John Maginnis: "'It certainly interests me. There is a lot of work to be done,' the former governor and bank president told LaPolitics. ... 'It will take months to work out if it happens. I don't want to scare anyone.' Whether as a candidate or not, he sees the need for a different approach from 'the professional corruption in politics' created by how presidential candidates raise money. Having real independence in the White House 'won't happen unless we remove the Goldman Sachs yoke around the president,' he said." Roemer was first elected governor as a Democrat and switched parties before leaving office in 1992. http://bit.ly/eCwdvK


AND THEN THERE'S RUDY - The New York Post: "Confident that he'd have a chance to win, Rudy Giuliani is rounding up his top political advisers for a possible 2012 presidential run, sources tell Page Six. ... Giuliani has even scheduled a trip to New Hampshire for next month to meet with constituents in the state that failed him in January 2008." http://bit.ly/f2kYRw


GONNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT - "Chairman inherits financial mess at DCCC" - POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Alex Isenstadt: "The DCCC is nearly $20 million in debt, the electoral map may be even more daunting in 2012 after redistricting, and fundraising even tougher as the party competes for money during a presidential election cycle. The DCCC has slightly more than $3 million cash on hand, and it now will have to raise funds to pay off its huge debt with Democrats in the minority. That presents a significant disadvantage compared with the past four years when Democrats held a fundraising edge. Israel is going to have to compete for Democratic donors with both the Obama-Biden reelection campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, where Democrats are in jeopardy of losing their smaller majority. 'There's no question that this is an uphill battle, but I love uphill battles,' Israel said in an interview with POLITICO, previewing a line he very likely will repeat often throughout the cycle." http://politi.co/f5gY0a


POLL OF THE DAY - ENSIGN'S CHALLENGERS: Less than half of Nevada Republicans want Sen. John Ensign to run for reelection and the scandal-tarred senator trails all of the Democrats' top recruitment prospects. Public Policy Polling: "The most critical finding on that question is that even among Republicans more- 48%- wish Ensign would step aside than the 42% who want him to run again. ... Against Congresswoman Shelley Berkley who seems like the most likely Democratic candidate at this point he's down 45-42. He has a 44-42 deficit against Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and a 40-39 one against Secretary of State Ross Miller. What's most remarkable about Ensign trailing all of the Democrats is that none of them are particularly well known at this point. 34% of voters in the state have no opinion about Goodman and it's 35% for Masto, 37% for Berkley, and goes all the way up to 50% for Miller. ... Congressman Dean Heller would be an extremely formidable alternative ... [Heller] would start out with an initial lead over all of the Democrats, ranging anywhere from 7 to 13 points." http://bit.ly/fWbP1J


DEPT. OF KNIFE-TWISTING - Nevada political scribe @RalstonFlash tweets: "John Ensign's numbers are not Harry Reid-like. They're worse. PPP approval 4 Reid is horrible 46-50; Ensign's is fatal 35-50. #tickticktick" http://bit.ly/gqR193


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We plan to do a great job." - Michael Bloomberg, on the city's response to a snowstorm anticipated this weekend http://bit.ly/dTxUit


*** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore


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