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By Kevin Robillard | 03/01/2018 10:00 AM EDT


With Zach Montellaro, Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

TURNED TABLES ON GUNS? - "Could GOP inaction on guns hand the House to Democrats?," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Burgess Everett: "As a renewed, nationwide push for gun control faces an uphill battle in Congress, some progressive outside groups are prodding Democrats to make gun restrictions a driving issue in the midterms. There are signs some candidates will take heed, using GOP inaction on guns as one piece of a larger case against the Republican-controlled Congress. But many other Democrats worry that nationalizing the issue in the midterms would undercut some of their most vulnerable members - or hinder Democrats challenging GOP incumbents - in rural areas spanning from Ohio and
Indiana to Montana and California's Yosemite Valley. ... Multiple Democratic political operatives said they will surgically deploy the issue in select competitive states and House districts, especially those wracked by mass shootings. If the battle for House control comes down to a handful of seats, that could make gun control a significant factor." Full story.

- "A Top Gun Control Group Said It Will Campaign Against Republicans In Six Races," by BuzzFeed News' Ryan C. Brooks: "Now prominent gun control groups are launching programs to push the issue further during the midterm elections. Giffords PAC, an advocacy group launched by former lawmaker Gabrielle Giffords, will focus on five House races and one Senate race. An official with the group did not say how much money the campaign would entail, nor what the effort would look like. ... In its first round, Giffords PAC is targeting Sen. Dean Heller, and Reps. Mike Coffman, Vern Buchanan, Pete Sessions, and Barbara Comstock, as well as House Speaker Paul Ryan." Full story.

- A Republican strategist told your Morning Score host on Wednesday he feared guns would be the perfect issue for Democrats: House Democrats can use it to put the squeeze on Republicans in suburban seats, while it gives Senate Democrats running for reelection in red states, including West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a chance to break with their party on some provisions.

LESS THAN A SURE THING - "Labrador dogged by big-spending primary opponents in Idaho," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Of the three major candidates, [Rep. Raul] Labrador - a powerful figure in the far-right House Freedom Caucus - is the nominal frontrunner in the May primary. He's been endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and private polls in the race show him leading Lt. Gov. Brad Little and developer Tommy Ahlquist in the primary. ... Ahlquist, who's been endorsed by 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and his allies are spending big to get him out of third place. At the end of this week, his campaign will have already spent more than $700,000 on television ads, according to
Advertising Analytics - a hefty sum in a cheap media market state like Idaho. A pro-Ahlquist political action committee, Idaho First PAC, has spent an additional $389,000 in support of the candidate. Its latest ad, which began running this week, highlights Ahlquist's work as a doctor working with sexual assault victims." Full story.

PRIMARY CONCERNS - "Chris McDaniel announces #MSSEN bid against Roger Wicker in GOP primary," by the Clarion-Ledger's Geoff Pender: "State Sen. Chris McDaniel announced his challenge and immediately began trying to run to the right of incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker on Wednesday, calling him 'one of the most liberal senators.' ... McDaniel promptly mentioned Wicker's support for changing the Mississippi flag - the last in the nation to include the Confederate battle emblem - a potential weakness for Wicker among conservative, white Republicans. ...

"McDaniel on Wednesday didn't rule out dropping out of the current Senate race and running for Mississippi's other seat if Cochran steps down early as many expect. 'In politics anything is possible ... In politics you always keep your options open,' McDaniel said. Many political observers believe McDaniel waited until near Thursday's qualifying deadline to announce for the Wicker seat because he would rather run against a temporary appointee - or be that appointee - should Cochran resign." Full story. Watch McDaniel's launch video here.

- "Democrat David Baria enters Senate race in Mississippi," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "David Baria, the state house minority leader, qualified for the ballot on Wednesday, after submitting the necessary paperwork. ... The day after Doug Jones won in Alabama in December, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) pledged to have a candidate in every race. Mississippi had been the only remaining hole for Democrats. ... Baria said he missed a call from Van Hollen, and so far has not heard from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)." Full story.

-Howard Sherman, a venture capitalist and the husband of actress Sela Ward, also qualified for the Democratic ballot, the Clarion-Ledger reports.

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POLLS, POLLS, POLLS - "Illinois GOP governor trails Democrats by double-digits in new poll," by POLITICO Illinois' Natasha Korecki: "With roughly three weeks until the Illinois primary election and more than $100 million of their personal funds already invested, billionaire Democrat J.B. Pritzker and multi-millionaire Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner hold double-digit leads against their respective primary challengers, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. But the results suggest Rauner, considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation, is in serious jeopardy of being denied a second term in November. Both Pritzker and Democrat state Sen. Daniel Biss
are ahead of the governor by double-digits in general election match-ups tested by the Carbondale-based institute." Full story. Full poll results here.

- "Poll: Baker leads Maryland Democratic primary," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker leads the race for the Democratic nomination for governor in Maryland, according to a new poll that shows nearly a third of likely primary voters are undecided. The poll, from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, shows Baker atop the large field of candidates, with 26 percent. Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (15 percent) and former NAACP CEO Ben Jealous (14 percent) trail Baker, with other candidates polling under 5 percent: State Sen. Rich Madaleno (4 percent), former Obama administration official Krish Vignarajah (3 percent), attorney Jim Shea (3 percent),
former State Department official Alec Ross (2 percent) and frequent candidate Ralph Jaffe (1 percent). Thirty-two percent of voters are undecided." Full story. Full results here.

Days until the 2018 election: 251

Upcoming election dates - Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.

Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - Not One Penny launches billboard campaign in WI-01: Not One Penny, a pro-Democratic group, announced today that it's going up with a billboard in Ryan's home district that features the Wisconsin Republican's tweet about a Pennsylvania secretary's pay going up $1.50 a week. The billboard adds, "the Internet is forever, Speaker Ryan."

ONE OUT, ONE IN? - Ann Wagner files for reelection: Missourinet reported on Wednesday that Rep. Ann Wagner, who had second thoughts about entering the Missouri Senate race earlier this month, filed for reelection in Jefferson City. Wagner's decision leaves former Libertarian presidential candidate Austin Peterson and veteran Courtland Sykes as the two most high-profile challengers to Attorney General Josh Hawley, who will be a heavy frontrunner.

- Blackburn faces self-funding businessman, the Chattanooga Times-Free Press reports: "Williamson County businessman Darrell Lynn told the Times Free Press last week and re-confirmed Tuesday he expects to run. He said he is a self-made millionaire, can easily spend $5 million and plans on pulling papers Thursday to file as a candidate. ... Steve Gill, a former conservative radio talk show host and political activist, said Lynn 'seems like a nice guy' but has 'no base and money alone won't do it. If he has $5 million to throw at it and does, then he might create a stir.'" Full story.

2020 WATCH - "Montana Gov. Bullock to make debut visit to Iowa," by POLITICO's Gabriel DeBenedetti: "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, a potential presidential candidate, will head to Iowa soon for his campaign season debut in the early caucus state, two Democrats familiar with his plans told POLITICO. The second-term Democrat will visit the first presidential caucus state between April 5 and 7 to campaign for a friend, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller." Full story.

ON THE AIRWAVES - Andy Thorburn releases TV ad in CA-39: Democrat Andy Thorburn is releasing a new TV ad that will start airing next week on cable stations in the district. The ad focuses on Thorburn's jail time over "fighting to stop education cuts." Check out the ad here.

- NRCC hits Lamb on 'plea bargain' for 'drug kingpin': "The National Republican Congressional Committee released its latest TV ad in next month's special election for a western Pennsylvania House seat, continuing its attack line on Democrat Conor Lamb's tenure as a federal prosecutor." Watch the ad here. Full story.

- "Rokita Senate campaign ad uses military cemetery footage despite VA rules against partisan use," by USA Today's Maureen Groppe: "Rep. Todd Rokita packed plenty of red meat into his first Senate campaign ad. But he appears to have improperly included footage of a military cemetery in the plethora of images that included Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, a kneeling Colin Kaepernick, presidential inauguration protesters, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and shots of Rokita reading to his sons, shooting a gun, holding a beer while shaking a mechanic's hand and walking through a cornfield. The problem with showing rows of headstones as an announcer accuses 'liberal elites' of disrespecting 'the
sacrifices of our soldiers' is that the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs does not allow campaign ads to be filmed in national cemeteries." Full story. Watch the ad.

CHANGING MAP - "Christina Hartman will run for Congress in new Harrisburg-based district, ending years-long bid in Lancaster," by Lancaster Online's Sam Janesch: "Christina Hartman is shutting down her campaign for Lancaster County's seat in Congress - opting instead to run in the neighboring Harrisburg-based district that became more friendly to Democrats under the state's new congressional district map. ... The district has been represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry since 2013 and experts say it became more competitive for Democrats last week with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court's new statewide congressional district map." Full story.

GETTING THE NOD - EMILY's List backs Nancy Soderberg in FL-06: EMILY's List announced on Wednesday that it's backing Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a former ambassador who's running for the open seat left vacant by GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis.

WEB WARS - Morrisey up with web ad: West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey's campaign is up with a web ad highlighting his conservative credentials. Watch the ad here.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well, it's all downhill from there." - State Sen. Chris McDaniel, not long after taking the stage to cheers at his rally in Ellisville.

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