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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


FIRST IN SCORE - SNAPSHOT OF IOWA: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are in a close contest for the hearts and minds of likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to a new poll of Iowa Republicans conducted by the GOP firm Neighborhood Research. In a survey taken by New Jersey-based GOP operative Rick Shaftan - who has polled for several Iowa Republicans as well as groups involved in the recent Iowa Supreme Court elections - Huckabee picks up support from 24 percent of Republicans who said it's "very likely" or "definite" that they'll participate in the 2012 caucuses. Romney's support is at 19 percent with those voters, followed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 11 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8 percent. Among "definite" caucus-goers, Huckabee and Romney are essentially tied at 22 percent and 21 percent, respectively, with Palin at 13 percent and Gingrich at 6 percent. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is at 4 percent.


MORE -RANKING THE REST: Shaftan notes that several other candidates who currently trail behind have plenty of room to grow: "While Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney top the GOP field, the race remains wide open although some candidates are having trouble gaining traction ... Tim Pawlenty's name ID was 64 percent, followed by Michele Bachmann at 60 percent, Rick Santorum at 58 percent, Haley Barbour at 52 percent, John Thune at 43 percent, Mike Pence at 38 percent, Herman Cain at 20 percent and Gary Johnson at 19 percent. ... Huckabee and Romney are clearly the top two contenders and Romney, despite being in second, has a more motivated voter and ultimately would probably edge out Huckabee if the caucus were today with Palin a strong third. ... Pawlenty is the man to watch here ... Of the other candidates, Thune seemed to have the most on the ball. Bachmann could be dangerous if she is serious about the campaign."


AND -THE FINE PRINT: The poll ran from Jan. 3-8 and tested 556 Republican primary voters who cast ballots in 2010 and said the odds of their participating in the 2012 caucuses were "very likely" or better. The survey was conducted for Shaftan's clients, Dennis Fusaro and Grassroots Solutions, Inc., and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percent. Read the full polling memo - including who voters picked as their second and third-choice candidates - here: http://politi.co/g2GxoQ


RNC EXCLUSIVE - THE REAGAN CARD - Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus has claimed the endorsement of conservative commentator Michael Reagan, the son of former President Ronald Reagan, just five days before Friday's election for chairman of the Republican National Committee. Michael Reagan has penned an endorsement letter for Priebus and recorded an audio message praising Priebus's campaign efforts in Wisconsin last year: "In a state that Barack Obama carried by 14 points, I saw firsthand a remarkable grassroots organization that flipped the state to red ... With the White House within reach, it is even more important to elect a fellow member like Reince, who's committed to growing the Republican Party from the ground up. Just like my father, Reince knows that the salvation and the rebuilding of our party lies in our grassroots activists." Priebus remains the frontrunner in the chairman's race, with nearly 40 commitments, but with 85 votes needed to win it's still a very competitive campaign. Read the endorsement letter from Reagan here: http://politi.co/dPZdSf


As Luis Gutierrez makes his choice, Democrats have a problem in Boston and the nation debates the meaning of Tucson, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


THIS MORNING - From the White House guidance: "At 11:00AM ET, the President and the First Lady will observe a moment of silence on the South Lawn to honor the victims of the shooting in Tucson, Arizona."

CENTER OF THE STORM - "Shooting marks turning point for Palin" - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin: "With a long list of enemies, a taste for incendiary rhetoric and responsibility for a campaign website graphic that placed gunsight logos on a map of targeted congressional districts, it didn't take long for Sarah Palin to get pulled into the orbit of Saturday's massacre in Tucson. ... Whether she defends, explains or even responds at all to the intense criticism of her brand of confrontational politics could well determine her trajectory on the national scene-and it's likely to reveal the scope of her ambitions as well. Palin didn't respond to an email Sunday afternoon. Her advisers are furious that she's being linked to the tragedy, but recognize the delicacy of the situation and are trying to assess how best to halt it from spiraling further without making it any worse."


MORE - "If she has any intentions of running for the presidency, she must begin to appeal to the country's broad political center. And that task just got harder in the wake of Tucson. The other option is to simply remain in the private sector where she can continue to issue the envelope-pushing jeremiads and employ the overheated rhetoric that appeals to her loyal base, sells her books, draws TV viewers and makes her irresistible to a sound byte-hungry media. Either way, she'll have to show her hand, signaling whether she wants to be Ronald Reagan or Rush Limbaugh." http://politi.co/fcv4MQ


TRENDING - Google's hot topics, as of Sunday afternoon: 4. second suspect ... 5. giffords ... 6. arizona ... 7. palin ... 8. loughner ... And top searches: 1. American renaissance ... 4. Vitriol ... 9. sarah palin crosshairs ...


FAR BEYOND TUCSON - ROMNEY ABROAD - AP's Glen Johnson broke news of the presumptive 2012-er's trip to Afghanistan and the Middle East this week: "The former Massachusetts governor arrived Sunday in Kabul for a meeting with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai. Senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom says he will also 'train Afghans and share with local leaders his views on issues of leadership, public service, economic opportunity and democratic participation.' Romney is then proceeding to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Jordan to meet with King Abdullah II. ... The former businessman is seen as having strength on economic issues heading into a possible 2012 race, but still relatively little experience in foreign policy." http://bit.ly/g1G56x


MORE - Romney's Free and Strong America PAC adds that the trip is "being paid for by a combination of private sources" and its purpose is "not to conduct private diplomacy but to give Governor Romney a first-hand look at what is happening in an important region of the world." Romney's traveling companions, per the Boston Globe: "Ambassador Mitchell Reiss, president of Washington College in Maryland who is former State Department official ...former Senator Jim Talent, of Missouri, who was a Romney adviser during his 2008 campaign ...former [Massachusetts Lt. Gov. Kerry] Healey, who has an interest in the rights of women and justice reform in Afghanistan ... and Dan Senor, an adviser on Romney's 2008 campaign who is currently a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations." http://bit.ly/dHxHIh MISUNDERESTIMATED: This was supposed to be Tim Pawlenty's coming-out week, as the former Minnesota governor hits the national media circuit to promote his book "Courage to Stand." And over the weekend, Pawlenty got the once-over from the Weekly Standard's John McCormack, who concluded Pawlenty's odds are better than is widely appreciated: "Because Pawlenty has been less coy than other likely presidential contenders about whether he'll run, he's generated less interest while the press is concentrating on who's in and who's out. ... He may, in fact, be the most underestimated Republican presidential candidate-one who could appeal to the Tea Party and the Republican establishment. ... While Pawlenty leaves office with a record that's about as conservative as could be for a Minnesota governor, he has yet to present a detailed national agenda. He talks about the need to cap Medicaid spending and block-grant it to the states. He points to modest reforms in his state as a model for making Medicare more efficient. ... For Pawlenty, though, some of the details can wait. Right now, he's just trying to get Republican voters to remember his name." http://bit.ly/dKkF52


WORTH THE CLICK - Pawlenty sat down with ABC's Terry Moran for a "Nightline" profile that aired Friday evening. Watch it here: http://bit.ly/eYIlvg


SHUT IT DOWN? Entertainment Weekly reports that TLC's "Sarah Palin's Alaska" doesn't seem headed for a second season, as "there are no plans to send uber-producer Mark Burnett back to Wasilla with Palin, who's lured an averaged 3.2 million viewers to TLC with her show. So this Sunday's two-hour finale of Sarah Palin's Alaska appears to be its last. ... But it makes sense why Palin wouldn't want to commit to another season: If she and her family chose to shoot more episodes, it would surely be interpreted as a sign that she had no plans to run for office." http://bit.ly/hHYcDR


PUT HIM ON THE LIST: Soon-to-be-ex-Alabama Gov. Bob Riley, who hasn't ruled out a future run for office, played it coy on 2012 during an exit interview with the Birmingham News: "The outgoing governor, who is leaving office at the age of 66, said he sees his future as including some involvement in public policy debate. Some of his supporters say they want that involvement to include a 2012 presidential bid. Riley ever-so-politely dodges a question about presidential aspirations. 'I don't know. Why would I visit Iowa?' Riley said when asked if he plans to visit the state that already is drawing the attention of candidates for the country's highest office. ... Riley friend and presumptive Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard is a fan of the idea. 'I think he'd be a great president. I don't know if he has an interest in doing that or not, but I think he would be great,' Hubbard said." http://bit.ly/eLTys7


POLL OF THE DAY - PERRY VS. HUTCHISON, AGAIN: Texas Gov. Rick Perry's approval rating is at its highest mark in five years and his popularity among Republicans far outpaces that of his onetime GOP primary opponent, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, according to a survey taken for the Austin American-Statesman and other Texas newspapers. Texans hope, however, that Perry will keep his word and not run for president, the Statesman's Jason Embry reports: "Perry posted his highest job approval rate - 51 percent - and his lowest disapproval rate - 30 percent - in five years, pollster Mickey Blum said. ... 63 percent of registered voters said he should not run for president in 2012. ... Not long ago considered the state's most popular politician, Hutchison has a 46 percent approval rating among registered voters. Her approval rating among Republicans is 56 percent. Perry's, by comparison, is 73 percent." http://bit.ly/e4bCQg


MUMBLES, OFF MESSAGE: Boston Mayor Tom Menino doesn't think his party's up to the task of defeating Republican Sen. Scott Brown in 2012. Menino spoke with the Boston Herald as he recovered from knee surgery: "[T]he mayor did say he will never run for another office, despite his popularity in Boston. 'Of course not. I have the best job in America,' he said. The mayor also offered surprising praise for Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, who called Menino after his latest surgery. And he had some candid advice for Democrats thinking of running against Brown in 2012. 'There's nobody that can beat him,' the mayor said of Brown." http://bit.ly/ffb9uU


CHICAGO WATCH - GUTIERREZ FOR CHICO - The Chicago Tribune: "Gery Chico was endorsed for mayor today by U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez, a move aimed at burnishing the former Chicago Public Schools chief's credentials in the Latino community. ... Gutierrez's endorsement comes with a little more than six weeks until the Feb. 22 election in a race where the landscape has changed dramatically in the past few weeks. 'My reason is simple. Gery Chico is the most qualified candidate for mayor,' Gutierrez said. 'He doesn't need any on-the-job training. ... I have a message for Latinos today. It's time to make history' ... Chico, who is of Mexican, Greek and Lithuanian heritage, is trying to get the support of Latinos who make up about 20 percent of city voters." http://bit.ly/fln5Db


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Hey, David-- this election wasn't close by Reid standards. ... I've had a lot of close elections. I won by-- a huge amount in Nevada." - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, bragging on his 5-point reelection win to NBC's David Gregory on "Meet the Press" http://politi.co/hRALeO

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