EMAIL DETAILS

Another Don Quixote Thanksgiving. Every year at Thanksgiving, we look in-depth at an issue that affects markets and portfolios. Last year, we examined the unraveling situation in Europe. Unfortunately, most concerns we expressed last year have been borne out, and are getting worse (I spent the weekend reading legal documents on a Eurozone break-up, just in case). Like Don Quixote, Europe went on its journey for all the wrong reasons, adopting a half-pregnant monetary union to support a political objective that had arguably already been achieved by 1955. This year, a look at something just as worrying in the long run as the fiscal problems of the West: the search for energy solutions. This journey has been fraught with similarly quixotic dead ends, fairy tales and blunders ignoring economic (and thermodynamic) realities. This is important to us, since energy cost and availability is central to how we think about growth, profits, stability and our portfolio investments.

As part of this effort, I made a pilgrimage to Manitoba to spend a day with Vaclav Smil. Vaclav is one of the world's foremost experts on energy, and has written over 30 books and 300 papers on the subject (he's #49 on Foreign Policy's list of the 100 most influential thinkers). Vaclav's book "Energy Myths and Realities" should be required reading for politicians or regulators impacting energy policy. We start in the attached document with an unflinching look at these realities before turning to solutions, and some potentially encouraging developments, which have less to do with how electricity is generated, and more to do with how it might be stored.

As for the U.S. Super Committee failure and distress in European sovereign and bank debt markets, these are topics we have addressed in prior weeks in painful detail. There is not much new to report right now, other than the inexorable slide towards massive money-printing and credit risk taken on by the European Central Bank, taking place in slow motion as Germany wrestles with its own past, and the depth of its real commitment to the monetary union. As seen in the U.S., even when money-printing arrives, there are a lot of problems it still doesn't solve.

Michael Cembalest
Chief Investment Officer

The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The above summary/prices/quotes/statistics have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, any yield referenced is indicative and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be implemented across brokerage or managed accounts depending on the unique objectives of each client and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and Chase Investment Services Corp., (CISC) member FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or sold through JPMS or CISC are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"); are not deposits or other obligations of its bank or thrift affiliates and are not guaranteed by its bank or thrift affiliates; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. Not all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your J.P. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Private Investments may engage in leveraging and other speculative practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuations to investors and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. Typically such investment ideas can only be offered to suitable investors through a confidential offering memorandum which fully describes all terms, conditions, and risks.
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. (c) 2011 JPMorgan Chase & Co; All rights reserved


This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and
conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of
securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses,
confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers,
available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email.